Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Glarus, WI
October 4, 2023 12:45 AM CDT (05:45 UTC)
Sunrise 6:57AM Sunset 6:35PM Moonrise 9:45PM Moonset 1:17PM
LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 1105 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Rest of tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..South wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then veering southwest late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then backing southwest early in the afternoon becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Rest of tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..South wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then veering southwest late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then backing southwest early in the afternoon becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ600
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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 040307 AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1007 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
UPDATE
(Issued 1005 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)
No major changes to the forecast this evening. Currently thinking that the approaching cold front will be entering our western counties around 6-7am CDT Wednesday morning and move through southern WI throughout the day, exiting southeastern WI around 7pm CDT. Given the 0-6km bulk shear of 35kt and ensemble min CAPE showing there will be at least 500 J/kg along the front, thunderstorms are seeming more likely for Wednesday. However, there is some uncertainty in the shower and thunderstorm coverage and intensity that southern WI will see on Wednesday. The line of showers and thunderstorms currently along the front in IA will weaken and largely dissipate by the time the front makes it to western WI, likely due to the loss of heating. Due to the front's morning timing, coverage of showers and storms is likely to be isolated at best through much of Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Most of the models then indicate redevelopment along the front across southeastern WI Wednesday afternoon. The intensity of this redevelopment still relies largely on how much heating southeastern WI is able to receive Wednesday, but it's looking more likely that this redevelopment will result in thunderstorm activity across this area.
Falkinham
SHORT TERM
(Issued 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)
Tonight through Wednesday night:
Developing low pressure over Srn Canada coupled with high pressure over the eastern CONUS will allow Sly flow to continue tonight, then accelerate and veer SWly Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Broken mid-altitude cloud cover associated with said front will arrive tonight, preventing the atmosphere from fully decoupling (south breeze may continue) and preventing fog formation tonight.
HRRR currently has an ensemble mean of 1000 j/kg and max of 2000 j/kg SBCAPE over our CWA Wednesday (just ahead of the cold front).
CAMs show showers approaching in the morning, then possibly reinvigorating into thunderstorms as daytime heating kicks in.
Deep shear (0-6km) is expected to be around 35 kts. The largest uncertainty is with regards to how much the airmass can destabilize under the scattered to broken cloud cover. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue over the southeastern CWA Wednesday night, as the surface component of the cold front (as seen on dewpoint and wind fields) sweeps across the CWA Wednesday night.
The front and associated wx should move clear of the land CWA by Thursday Morning.
Sheppard
LONG TERM
(Issued 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)
Thursday through Tuesday:
A narrow surface ridge will slide into the area by Thursday morning ahead of a secondary cold front. Expect a good amount of sunshine through the morning under the high, with increasing clouds in the afternoon as the front approaches. Not out of the question to see a shower or two with the front later in the day into the evening, but overall it looks dry Thursday. Temps aloft will recover ahead of the front, with above normal highs into the 70s likely.
A much cooler airmass will move in Thursday night into Friday behind the cold front. Skies will be mostly cloudy during the day Friday, with a chance for showers also as the main trough moves through. Breezy west to northwest winds will keep it feeling even cooler, as high temps are likely to only reach the mid to upper 50s most places.
Kept some low precip chances east on Saturday as the trough exits, though dry weather is more likely as high pressure begins to build back into the area. Any lake effect showers that develop Saturday will remain offshore given the northwest winds in the lower levels. Even with decreasing clouds Saturday, temps will struggle into the mid-50s for highs.
Dry weather is expected to persist early next week as the surface high lingers. Though temps will slowly recover, northwest flow aloft will keep below normal temperatures going Sunday through Tuesday.
DDV
AVIATION
(Issued 1005 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)
VFR conditions are expected to continue across southern WI overnight. Primarily VFR conditions are also expected on Wednesday with ceiling heights generally 5000ft and above with unrestricted visibilities. However, a cold front is expected to move across WI on Wednesday, bringing with it shower and thunderstorm chances (30%-40%). All sites have the potential to see showers and storms, but MKE and ENW are looking to be the most likely to see development come Wednesday afternoon. Lower ceilings and visibilities are likely in storms that do move over the terminals. Otherwise, southwesterly winds gusting to near 25KT are expected on Wednesday.
Falkinham
MARINE
(Issued 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)
High pressure around 30.2 inches over Pennsylvania and developing low pressure around 29.4 inches over southern Canada will continue to bring modest south to southeast winds across Lake Michigan.
A cold front will enter the region from the west Wednesday and into Lake Michigan Wednesday night into Thursday. Increasing south winds are anticipated ahead of the front Wednesday, with increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
Gusty west to northwest winds are then expected Thursday night into the weekend, with building waves, as cooler air moves in.
There is some potential for gusts exceeding 30 knots Friday afternoon into Saturday.
Sheppard
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1007 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
UPDATE
(Issued 1005 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)
No major changes to the forecast this evening. Currently thinking that the approaching cold front will be entering our western counties around 6-7am CDT Wednesday morning and move through southern WI throughout the day, exiting southeastern WI around 7pm CDT. Given the 0-6km bulk shear of 35kt and ensemble min CAPE showing there will be at least 500 J/kg along the front, thunderstorms are seeming more likely for Wednesday. However, there is some uncertainty in the shower and thunderstorm coverage and intensity that southern WI will see on Wednesday. The line of showers and thunderstorms currently along the front in IA will weaken and largely dissipate by the time the front makes it to western WI, likely due to the loss of heating. Due to the front's morning timing, coverage of showers and storms is likely to be isolated at best through much of Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Most of the models then indicate redevelopment along the front across southeastern WI Wednesday afternoon. The intensity of this redevelopment still relies largely on how much heating southeastern WI is able to receive Wednesday, but it's looking more likely that this redevelopment will result in thunderstorm activity across this area.
Falkinham
SHORT TERM
(Issued 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)
Tonight through Wednesday night:
Developing low pressure over Srn Canada coupled with high pressure over the eastern CONUS will allow Sly flow to continue tonight, then accelerate and veer SWly Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Broken mid-altitude cloud cover associated with said front will arrive tonight, preventing the atmosphere from fully decoupling (south breeze may continue) and preventing fog formation tonight.
HRRR currently has an ensemble mean of 1000 j/kg and max of 2000 j/kg SBCAPE over our CWA Wednesday (just ahead of the cold front).
CAMs show showers approaching in the morning, then possibly reinvigorating into thunderstorms as daytime heating kicks in.
Deep shear (0-6km) is expected to be around 35 kts. The largest uncertainty is with regards to how much the airmass can destabilize under the scattered to broken cloud cover. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue over the southeastern CWA Wednesday night, as the surface component of the cold front (as seen on dewpoint and wind fields) sweeps across the CWA Wednesday night.
The front and associated wx should move clear of the land CWA by Thursday Morning.
Sheppard
LONG TERM
(Issued 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)
Thursday through Tuesday:
A narrow surface ridge will slide into the area by Thursday morning ahead of a secondary cold front. Expect a good amount of sunshine through the morning under the high, with increasing clouds in the afternoon as the front approaches. Not out of the question to see a shower or two with the front later in the day into the evening, but overall it looks dry Thursday. Temps aloft will recover ahead of the front, with above normal highs into the 70s likely.
A much cooler airmass will move in Thursday night into Friday behind the cold front. Skies will be mostly cloudy during the day Friday, with a chance for showers also as the main trough moves through. Breezy west to northwest winds will keep it feeling even cooler, as high temps are likely to only reach the mid to upper 50s most places.
Kept some low precip chances east on Saturday as the trough exits, though dry weather is more likely as high pressure begins to build back into the area. Any lake effect showers that develop Saturday will remain offshore given the northwest winds in the lower levels. Even with decreasing clouds Saturday, temps will struggle into the mid-50s for highs.
Dry weather is expected to persist early next week as the surface high lingers. Though temps will slowly recover, northwest flow aloft will keep below normal temperatures going Sunday through Tuesday.
DDV
AVIATION
(Issued 1005 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)
VFR conditions are expected to continue across southern WI overnight. Primarily VFR conditions are also expected on Wednesday with ceiling heights generally 5000ft and above with unrestricted visibilities. However, a cold front is expected to move across WI on Wednesday, bringing with it shower and thunderstorm chances (30%-40%). All sites have the potential to see showers and storms, but MKE and ENW are looking to be the most likely to see development come Wednesday afternoon. Lower ceilings and visibilities are likely in storms that do move over the terminals. Otherwise, southwesterly winds gusting to near 25KT are expected on Wednesday.
Falkinham
MARINE
(Issued 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)
High pressure around 30.2 inches over Pennsylvania and developing low pressure around 29.4 inches over southern Canada will continue to bring modest south to southeast winds across Lake Michigan.
A cold front will enter the region from the west Wednesday and into Lake Michigan Wednesday night into Thursday. Increasing south winds are anticipated ahead of the front Wednesday, with increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
Gusty west to northwest winds are then expected Thursday night into the weekend, with building waves, as cooler air moves in.
There is some potential for gusts exceeding 30 knots Friday afternoon into Saturday.
Sheppard
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KEFT MONROE MUNI,WI | 14 sm | 10 min | S 08 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 72°F | 63°F | 73% | 29.95 |
Wind History from EFT
(wind in knots)
Milwaukee, WI,
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