Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wind Lake, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:19PM Thursday December 12, 2019 3:29 AM CST (09:29 UTC) Moonrise 5:56PMMoonset 8:32AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 306 Am Cst Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am cst this morning through this evening...
Early this morning..South wind 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Today..South wind 15 to 25 knots rising to up to 30 knots late in the morning, then easing to 15 to 25 knots early in the afternoon veering southwest late in the afternoon. Chance of drizzle in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the late morning and early afternoon, then subsiding to 4 to 6 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming 10 to 15 knots after midnight becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of drizzle through the night. Slight chance of light freezing drizzle after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.
Friday..West wind 5 to 10 knots backing south late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering west early in the morning. Slight chance of snow through around midnight. Chance of drizzle through the night. Chance of snow and light freezing drizzle after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ645 Expires:201912122200;;229027 FZUS53 KMKX 120906 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 306 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-122200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wind Lake CDP, WI
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location: 42.82, -88.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 120554 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1154 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

UPDATE. Mid to high clouds continue to increase across srn WI. No snow is expected until late Thu AM nw of Madison. The forecast is on track for mixed pcpn Thu afternoon followed by drizzle or freezing drizzle Thu nt.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS). VFR conditions for most of Thu AM. Low Cigs of 600-1900 feet will then slowly overspread srn WI from the nw late Thu morning into Thu evening. Mixed precipitation will accompany the low Cigs. Vsbys will range from 1-3SM with the precipitation north of Madison and Milwaukee with vsbys of 3-6SM south of Madison and Milwaukee. Minor snow accum expected mainly north and west of the Milwaukee metro area. Some minor ice accum also expected due to freezing drizzle mainly north and west of Milwaukee late in the day and night. Patchy fog may form Thu eve as well. LLWS will be possible from 11Z-15Z Thu due to a sly low level jet overspreading the area.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 905 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019)

UPDATE . Mid level clouds have been scattered but thicker mid level clouds will increase from the west for late this evening into the overnight. The coldest temps will occur btwn now and midnight then gradually warm on increasing sely winds and warm advection.

MARINE . A Gale Warning is in effect from 9 AM to 9 PM Thu for all of Lake MI with the exception of the far nrn portion of the lake. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor from 7 AM to 9 PM Thu for breezy sswly winds and high waves.

High pressure of 30.4 inches will shift east across Lake MI tonight. Modest wly winds will back to sly during the overnight hours. Stronger sly winds will then develop for Thu as low pressure of 30.0 inches moves from the Great Plains to nrn Lake MI by Thu eve. Gale force gusts are likely for all but the far nrn portion of the lake for Thu-Thu eve. The low will then weaken over northern Lake MI or the northern portion of lower MI Thu nt. Much lighter winds are expected for late Thu nt-Fri. Nwly winds are then expected to develop by the weekend.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 601 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019)

UPDATE . Low temps will occur this evening as polar high pressure moves across the region. Clouds will then increase later this evening along with sely winds and warm advection. Temps will warm into the lower 20s by sunrise Thu. The forecast is on track for Thu-Thu nt with mixed pcpn and light snow and ice accums expected, with possibly the exception of far se WI which will remain above freezing during the pcpn.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) . VFR conditions tonight then low Cigs of 600-1900 feet slowly overspreading srn WI from the nw on Thu. Mixed precipitation will accompany the low Cigs. Vsbys will range from 1-3SM with the precipitation north of Madison and Milwaukee with vsbys of 3-6SM south of Madison and Milwaukee. Some minor ice accum expected due to freezing drizzle mainly north and west of Milwaukee late in the day. Patchy fog may form Thu eve as well. LLWS will be possible from 11Z-18Z Thu due to a sly low level jet.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 313 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019)

SHORT TERM .

Rest of this Afternoon through Tomorrow Night . Forecast Confidence Medium to High .

Quiet conditions will persist this evening, as high pressure continues to push southeast through the region. Low pressure taking shape over the High Plains will lift into the Lower Great Lakes tomorrow morning. Precipitation will begin to overspread the area from the northwest during the mid day hours, and will initially be in the form of snow. Temperatures will be right around freezing, and the best lift will be focused to our north, so only light accumulations are expected. Right now, it appears that snow will be mostly confined to areas north of I-94, with a dusting to up to 1-2 inches possible.

Heading into the late afternoon and evening hours, cloud ice will be lost, with precip changing to a mix of drizzle and freezing drizzle, depending on exact surface temperature. A glaze of ice will be possible from this activity late tomorrow afternoon and evening, which could cause some travel impacts across the region.

LONG TERM . Friday through Saturday . Forecast Confidence: Medium .

There is a deepening trough that will be moving through the Southern Plains out into the eastern CONUS over the weekend. There is a weaker shortwave that will begin to descend into the Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday that could bring some light precipitation to the area. During this period, there is expected to be sufficient moisture and temperatures at the surface will be dropping. As the weak shortwave moves into the region, the GFS and ECMWF are showing the initial surface temperatures in the mid 30s and a larger warm layer near the surface, so precip type would start as liquid. Middle level dry air will introduce a chance of freezing drizzle from Friday night through mid Saturday. Right now there is a lot of uncertainty about sufficient moisture and timing for freezing drizzle. Precip should transition to snow during the day Saturday. Any snow accumulations would be light.

Sunday through Tuesday . Forecast Confidence: Low .

As the system moves out of the region on Saturday, high pressure and cold air return to southern Wisconsin. The high pressure system will linger in southern Wisconsin Sunday into Monday morning. During this time there is a low pressure system that will be forming in the southern plains. This is where the models start to disagree and lots of uncertainty is introduced. The mid level trough will be digging further south and strengthening for the ECMWF solution, while the GFS solution has the mid level trough moving through the central CONUS. When looking at the moisture transport and associated surface low pressure systems, the ECMWF solution has the track of the low much farther south and little to no moisture present. This would give southern Wisconsin no precipitation accumulations. While the GFS solution has the moisture transport and track of the low moving through IL. This track would give southern Wisconsin a far greater chance of precipitation. The GFS and ECMWF model solutions best represented the spread of all of the models available, which demonstrated a spread where southern Wisconsin could either get no precipitation or had increasing chances for precipitation.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS) .

Winds settle down this evening, and will likely become light and variable for a time. South to southeast flow will develop late tonight, as low pressure develops and pushes toward central Wisconsin.

On Thursday, expect to see an area of mainly light snow begin to affect the region during the late morning hours. Madison has the best chance of seeing this activity, but for the most part, the more impactful snow will remain north of the terminals. Snow is then expected to transition to light drizzle and/or freezing drizzle tomorrow afternoon and evening, which will likely impact most of the area.

MARINE .

Southerly winds will increase on Thursday, with gales expected across all but the far northern-most portions of the open waters. A Gale Warning is in effect starting mid morning, continuing into the evening.

For the nearshore, winds should remain just below gale force, but will be quite gusty with high waves. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening.

Another front will pass through the lake on Saturday night, with a return of gusty northwest winds.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Gale Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Thursday for LMZ080-364-366- 563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CST Thursday for LMZ643>646.



Update . Gehring Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine . Boxell Thursday Night through Wednesday . Patterson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 19 mi50 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 22°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi90 min SW 4.1 G 6 22°F 1031.2 hPa (-0.6)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 42 mi50 min W 6 G 8 21°F 1031.8 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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1 day
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI12 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair15°F10°F79%1030.1 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI13 mi35 minSE 410.00 miFair16°F6°F67%1030.1 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI16 mi38 minSSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy20°F7°F57%1031.7 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi37 minSW 510.00 miFair18°F10°F71%1032.7 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI19 mi37 minS 68.00 miFair21°F14°F74%1032.2 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI21 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair19°F8°F63%1030.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7CalmW7W8W7W11
G17
W10
G15
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W9W9W7W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW15
G19
W12
G20
W9W8
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W9W8W6W3W9W7W6W5W7W11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW6SW8SW8SW8W8
G20
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G25
NW15
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W7W9
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W12W12
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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