Wednesday, January29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wind Lake, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:02PM Wednesday January 29, 2020 6:31 AM CST (12:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:50AMMoonset 10:47PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 505 Am Cst Wed Jan 29 2020
Today..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of flurries. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing north late in the evening, then backing northwest after midnight becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of light freezing rain through around midnight. Chance of flurries through the night. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves nearly calm. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ645 Expires:202001291700;;690030 FZUS53 KMKX 291105 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 505 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-291700-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wind Lake CDP, WI
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location: 42.82, -88.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 291208 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 608 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020

UPDATE.

Seeing some persistent light snow around the WI Dells area this morning, which may be caused by the steam from the nearby power plant in Portage. Based on the road-cams in the area, does not seem to be causing any travel issues. Nonetheless, have added mentions of flurries/light snow in the area. Additionally, have extended the mention of flurries across the most of area through the afternoon as some mid-level forcing from the passing shortwave trough to our south may extend into the area today. This could provide enough lift for some stray flurries to develop. Still thinking there may be some lake effect flurries/light snow as well for areas along the lakefront as the 925mb flow becomes more easterly through the day. Any flurries/light snow that do develop is expected to produce little (generally less than 0.1") to no accumulations. Lastly with the insulation from the cloud cover, bumped temps up a bit, but otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS).

Mostly MVFR ceilings and light north-northeasterly winds will prevail across the region today. Some flurries may develop across southern WI with better chances being around MKE and ENW terminals later this morning/afternoon. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings and light winds are expected to hold through the end TAF cycle.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 338 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Wednesday through Thursday . Forecast Confidence is Medium to High .

Fairly quiet conditions are progged for southern WI today and Thursday as a surface high works its way across the upper Mississippi River Valley and a mid-level shortwave trough digs south of the area.

Low-level clouds will continue to blanket the upper Midwest and will likely hold firm across the region through the remainder of the short-term period. Highs today look to only rise into the upper 20s to low 30s, while overnight lows drop into the 20s. Similar conditions are expected for Thursday, but highs may be a degree or two warmer as the surface high shifts east and winds become more southwesterly Thursday afternoon.

Otherwise, there remains some low end chances for flurries/light snow today. Main concern would be for areas along the lakefront, generally north of Port Washington. Current obs along the lakefront show a light land breeze early this morning, which is likely preventing this easterly surface flow/convergence from producing anything early this morning. However, as we gradually warm up and easterly flow develops through the morning, chances will increase. The additional moisture combined with an average Lake Michigan surface temp around 37 degrees and delta-Ts (SST and 850mb) around 15 degrees along with a 4-5kft inversion, will contribute to the development of lake effect flurries. Hi-res models have also been picking up on this setup as well, thus have maintained low-end PoPs through this afternoon.

LONG TERM .

Thursday Night through Saturday . Forecast Confidence is Medium.

The next shortwave trough will approach southern WI late Thursday night and slowly move across the Great Lakes. Warm air advection and vorticity advection should bring some light snow to southern WI late Thu night through Friday. Forecast soundings show deep enough moisture for snow at the onset, but then mid level dry air moves in and we could see snow change to drizzle/freezing drizzle later Friday night before the precip ends. The ECMWF is hanging on to the idea of another shortwave that pushes through southern WI Saturday morning. A colder profile and more forcing would suggest less drizzle and more snow. That upper trough moves out by Saturday afternoon, ending and light precip.

Temperatures will remain mild with little diurnal variation, with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the upper 20s to around 30.

Sunday through Wednesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Northwest flow aloft and eventually some ridging may bring us some sunshine on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures are expected to be very mild, with the potential to reach 40. Of course, a trough will follow, so our next chance for precip will begin Monday evening. Models are trending further south with the track of the surface low, so this would give southern WI a better chance for snow. Yesterday the models had the low over or north of our area, suggesting rain changing to snow. This is something to watch, but there will continue to be a lot of forecast changes between now and then. Colder air will move in later next week.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS) .

MVFR ceilings will continue to blanket southern WI early this morning and are expected to persist through the evening. There will also be a possibility for some flurries to develop for areas along the lakeshore later this morning through the afternoon.

MARINE .

Light northeasterly winds will continue to shift to east today as a surface high slowly works its way east-southeast across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Light to modest winds and lower wave heights are expected to continue through the end of the week as this high pressure slowly moves east of the region.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . Wagner Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Wagner Thursday THROUGH Tuesday . Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi32 min N 8 G 9.9 28°F 1021.7 hPa (+0.7)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 42 mi52 min NW 5.1 G 8 26°F 1023 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI12 mi57 minN 010.00 miOvercast25°F20°F81%1021.7 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI13 mi47 minNW 410.00 mi23°F17°F80%1022 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI16 mi40 minNW 410.00 miOvercast28°F19°F69%1022.8 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi39 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast27°F19°F75%1023.1 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI19 mi39 minN 510.00 miOvercast28°F19°F72%1022.6 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI21 mi37 minN 010.00 miOvercast27°F19°F74%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW4W8W9W6W5W8W4W7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6NW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.