Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wind Lake, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:35PM Monday July 6, 2020 4:27 PM CDT (21:27 UTC) Moonrise 10:06PMMoonset 6:35AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 306 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 6 2020
Through early evening..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then veering southwest after midnight becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing southeast early in the afternoon, then rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of Thunderstorms and slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing southeast late in the morning, then rising to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ645 Expires:202007070900;;425345 FZUS53 KMKX 062007 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 306 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-070900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wind Lake CDP, WI
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location: 42.82, -88.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 062033 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 333 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

SHORT TERM.

Tonight through Tuesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and gradually taper off this evening as we approach sunset. Best areas for additional storms to develop will be off of outflow boundaries and along the lake breeze. With around 2000 J/kg of CAPE and dry air in the lower levels, there could be some stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail. Brief heavy downpours will also be possible with any thunderstorm.

Tonight there is a shortwave moving through that may bring another round of showers and thunderstorms for areas north of a Madison to Milwaukee line. The frontal boundary is expected to weaken as it shifts southward and the main lift source of lift remains to the north. We'll have to watch tonight to see if any convective activity makes it into the forecast area as it could have an impact on the storms expected for Tuesday afternoon. If we clear out or remain clear, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the 500mb positive vorticity wave. Soundings look similar to today, so can't rule out some stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail.

The heat will continue with lows overnight briefly dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s with highs Tuesday in the upper 80s to low 90s. Dew points will continue to be in the upper 60s to low 70s resulting heat indices in the low 90s across the area.

LONG TERM.

Tuesday Night Through Wednesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

This period will begin with lingering storms and showers with perhaps a few being strong. We should remain in and around the warm front with this system to the west overnight. A few models suggest storms/showers may continue through the night along the warm front but with the low to mid levels remaining mostly dry, thus it may be difficult to continue to see storms continue through the overnight period.

Into Wednesday the warm front lifts north and this will likely keep us mostly dry through the day given lack of sufficient forcing but some pop-up thunderstorms certainly can't be ruled out especially with any outflow boundaries/lake breeze potentially firing some thunderstorms given plenty of instability and low level moisture.

Thursday through Monday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

Thursday will likely become more active given a cold front from the system to the north pushing in with plenty of upper level support from a strong shortwave with decent low to midlevel moisture. This would bring potential for thunderstorms across southern Wisconsin with some potential for some stronger storms. Thursday will likely be our best chance for strong to severe storms this week.

After the front pulls through the region higher pressure will fill in behind. Models suggest this should keep weather fairly quiet other than afternoon pop-up thunderstorm/shower chances. Models do seem to suggest more uncertainty after Thursday but generally it look like quieter weather with slightly cooler temperatures Friday through the weekend and then warming up into next week as the ridge looks to build back into the region.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS).

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue through 00Z then taper off. Gustier winds will be possible with outflow boundaries moving through, and may cause the wind direction to rapidly shift. The best chance for thunderstorms to develop will be off of these outflow boundaries and along the lake breeze east of I-41. Expect VFR conditions to briefly drop to lower categories within storms.

Otherwise light southwesterly winds will continue with another round of showers and storms possible late tonight into Tuesday morning mainly for areas north of a Madison to Milwaukee line. Most of the area could remain dry as these showers and storms will be weakening as they move into the area.

MARINE.

Isolated thunderstorms remain possible for the nearshore waters this afternoon. A few storms could be on the stronger side with gusts around 30 knots. Quiet conditions return this evening but another round of showers and storms will be possible late tonight into Tuesday morning for northern and central portions of Lake Michigan. Winds will shift to the west for the northern half of the lake tonight before shifting to the south by Tuesday afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Tuesday afternoon but weaken as they move into the open waters. Quiet conditions then move in for Wednesday as high pressure settles in.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine . RAH Tuesday Night through Monday . ARK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 19 mi38 min SE 14 G 16 82°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi28 min S 9.9 G 14 80°F 1014.6 hPa (-1.0)
45013 25 mi58 min E 14 G 18 79°F 75°F2 ft1015.6 hPa
45187 30 mi28 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 79°F 76°F1 ft
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 42 mi48 min N 2.9 G 7 78°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI12 mi53 minN 010.00 mi89°F66°F47%1015.6 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI13 mi43 minWSW 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F62°F38%1015.6 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI16 mi36 minSW 8 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy93°F64°F38%1013.8 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi35 minS 1010.00 miA Few Clouds88°F66°F48%1015.2 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI19 mi35 minW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy92°F66°F44%1014.7 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI21 mi43 minN 910.00 miOvercast88°F60°F40%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE9CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.