Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wind Lake, WI

Version 3.4
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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:29PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 6:01 AM CDT (11:01 UTC) Moonrise 9:16PMMoonset 6:01AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 506 Am Cdt Wed Jul 17 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 1 pm cdt this afternoon...
Today..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves nearly calm.
Tonight..East wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast late in the evening, then veering south after midnight rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..South wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming south 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of Thunderstorms and slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and overnight.
LMZ645 Expires:201907171600;;775133 FZUS53 KMKX 171006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-171600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wind Lake CDP, WI
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location: 42.82, -88.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 170921
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
421 am cdt Wed jul 17 2019

Short term
Today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high.

This morning should be mostly dry to start with clouds pushing
out. This should allow us to warm up to the mid to upper 80s
during the day. There will be a slight chance for a few weak
storms to develop in the afternoon along the lake breeze, but
generally it should remain dry during this period.

Into the evening and especially the overnight period we will
likely see some storms, with a few possibly becoming severe.

However, the timing and available CAPE may limit this risk
somewhat. During this period, storms will develop along the warm
front being aided by strong WAA from the fairly strong LLJ just
off to the west. Storms will move east southeast across
southwestern wisconsin with 2000-3000 j kg of MUCAPE and upwards
of 40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. This would be enough for a few
severe storms with hail and wind the main threats.

In addition to the severe threat, there will be concerns for
training convection and thus some flooding, primarily across
southwest wisconsin. While there remains uncertainty with this
system, pwats look to be around 2 inches, with storms likely to
propagate southwest along the warm front. Cams seem to support
the idea of training storms, though the better flooding potential
will be further west, given the better timing for storms pushing
through.

Thursday through Friday night... Forecast confidence is high.

Enough confidence with temperatures and heat index values from
midday Thursday through Friday evening to issue a heat advisory
for the entire forecast area.

There is still some uncertainty with how long any clouds will
linger from the exiting convection Thursday morning. However, it
won't take much Sun to quickly warm up temperatures, even if it
does not occur until midday. So, felt confident enough to issue
the heat advisory starting at noon cdt Thursday.

925 mb temperatures from models, as well as looking at model
certainty trends, suggest highs in the lower 90s for Thursday, and
middle to upper 90s for Friday. Gusty southwest winds are expected
each day, which may lower dew points a little from currently
forecast. However, still expect heat index values to reach 100 to
106 Thursday afternoon, and 103 to 110 Friday afternoon. Given
these values, Friday will have the bigger impact. Record highs at
milwaukee and madison may be reached on Friday. Record high
minimums may be reached as well.

Mainly small chances for showers and storms remain Thursday
afternoon and night, as the low level jet remains pointed into the
area. Anything that develops would be elevated, and there is
decent elevated CAPE with decent deep layer bulk shear. Spc
marginal risk lingers Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, and
again mainly Friday night across the area. Friday night may see
showers and storms approach from the northwest, as a cold front
moves toward the area. Area may be capped, so some uncertainty on
how widespread any showers and storms will be Friday night.

Long term
Saturday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is low.

A fair amount of uncertainty lingers for this period. The models
are having a tough time finding agreement on trends. Generally
speaking, the cold front may stall over or near the area Saturday
into Saturday night, before a low pressure system moves across
southern wisconsin or northern illinois Sunday. The timing and
placement of these features remains in flux, so will maintain
blended model pops and temperatures for now.

This uncertainty also leads to less confidence with heat concerns
for Saturday, as clouds and possible convection may limit highs
quite a bit. Lowered highs a little for now, which keeps heat
index values remaining in the middle to upper 90s. Cooler highs in
the 80s for Sunday with the passing low and precipitation look
reasonable.

Sunday night through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models are in decent agreement with showing cold air advection
later Sunday into Sunday night Monday, which should bring back
more seasonable temperatures to the region. High pressure should
then bring quiet weather for the first part of next week.

Aviation(09z TAF updates)
There may be some patchy fog this morning, though vsbys are not
expected to be impacted much.VFR conditions are expected
throughout the day today, with light and variable winds this
morning turning southerly by the afternoon. Into the evening and
overnight hours storms are expected to push in from the west,
bringing potential for temporary vsby restrictions and some lower
clouds. The best chances for stronger storms will be further west.

Marine
Dense fog advisory remains in effect over the lake, with some
dense fog expected to persist through much of the morning hours
before dissipating. Winds will remain fairly light and variable
throughout the day, with winds turning to the south by the
afternoon and strengthening a bit, especially in the northern
half of the lake where gusts could reach 20-25 kts. Otherwise,
showers storms are expected primarily across the southern half of
the lake by the early morning hours on Thursday, possibly
bringing some stronger gusts.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Heat advisory from noon Thursday to 11 pm cdt Friday for wiz046-
047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until 1 pm cdt this afternoon for lmz080-261-
362-364-366-563-565-567-643>646-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878.

Today tonight and aviation marine... Ark
Thursday through Tuesday... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 21 mi22 min ENE 4.1 G 4.1 74°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi62 min NW 2.9 G 7 75°F 1011.9 hPa (+0.7)
45013 25 mi32 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 70°F 60°F1012.3 hPa
45187 30 mi22 min WNW 1.9 G 3.9 70°F 69°F
45186 36 mi22 min N 1.9 G 3.9 71°F 69°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI12 mi67 minNNW 510.00 miFair71°F68°F94%1012.9 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI13 mi67 minWNW 610.00 miFair72°F64°F78%1013.2 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI16 mi70 minNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F69°F74%1011.3 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi69 minW 410.00 miFair75°F70°F84%1012.1 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI19 mi69 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist73°F72°F96%1011.7 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI21 mi67 minWNW 410.00 miFair73°F64°F74%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3S5SW6CalmW4NW3CalmSW3SW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5
1 day agoS4SW9SW6SW7SW9SW7
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SW8S5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4
2 days agoE3CalmE4SE7SE4SE6E5CalmSE4CalmE6E6E9SE4SE5CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.