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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 305 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Through early evening..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..South wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then backing southwest early in the afternoon becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 032058 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 358 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SHORT TERM
(Issued 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Developing low pressure over Srn Canada coupled with high pressure over the eastern CONUS will allow Sly flow to continue tonight, then accelerate and veer SWly Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Broken mid-altitude cloud cover associated with said front will arrive tonight, preventing the atmosphere from fully decoupling (south breeze may continue) and preventing fog formation tonight.

HRRR currently has an ensemble mean of 1000 j/kg and max of 2000 j/kg SBCAPE over our CWA Wednesday (just ahead of the cold front).
CAMs show showers approaching in the morning, then possibly reinvigorating into thunderstorms as daytime heating kicks in.
Deep shear (0-6km) is expected to be around 35 kts. The largest uncertainty is with regards to how much the airmass can destabilize under the scattered to broken cloud cover. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue over the southeastern CWA Wednesday night, as the surface component of the cold front (as seen on dewpoint and wind fields) sweeps across the CWA Wednesday night.
The front and associated wx should move clear of the land CWA by Thursday Morning.

Sheppard

LONG TERM
(Issued 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)

Thursday through Tuesday:

A narrow surface ridge will slide into the area by Thursday morning ahead of a secondary cold front. Expect a good amount of sunshine through the morning under the high, with increasing clouds in the afternoon as the front approaches. Not out of the question to see a shower or two with the front later in the day into the evening, but overall it looks dry Thursday. Temps aloft will recover ahead of the front, with above normal highs into the 70s likely.

A much cooler airmass will move in Thursday night into Friday behind the cold front. Skies will be mostly cloudy during the day Friday, with a chance for showers also as the main trough moves through. Breezy west to northwest winds will keep it feeling even cooler, as high temps are likely to only reach the mid to upper 50s most places.

Kept some low precip chances east on Saturday as the trough exits, though dry weather is more likely as high pressure begins to build back into the area. Any lake effect showers that develop Saturday will remain offshore given the northwest winds in the lower levels. Even with decreasing clouds Saturday, temps will struggle into the mid-50s for highs.

Dry weather is expected to persist early next week as the surface high lingers. Though temps will slowly recover, northwest flow aloft will keep below normal temperatures going Sunday through Tuesday.

DDV

AVIATION
(Issued 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)

VFR will prevail tonight with south winds, diurnal cumulus currently evident on satellite should dissipate around sunset.
Clouds associated with a cold front approach from the west tonight, mainly between 10 kft and 20 kft. Scattered showers approach from the west Wednesday morning, with precip chances up to 40% at KMSN, 20% at KJVL and 20% at KSBM. Precip chances reach 40-50% at some point Wednesday for all airports (reaching KMKE in the mid afternoon hours). Thunder probabilities are currently limited to 30% for all areas, but this may be subject to change.

Sheppard

MARINE
(Issued 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)

High pressure around 30.2 inches over Pennsylvania and developing low pressure around 29.4 inches over southern Canada will continue to bring modest south to southeast winds across Lake Michigan.

A cold front will enter the region from the west Wednesday and into Lake Michigan Wednesday night into Thursday. Increasing south winds are anticipated ahead of the front Wednesday, with increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

Gusty west to northwest winds are then expected Thursday night into the weekend, with building waves, as cooler air moves in.
There is some potential for gusts exceeding 30 knots Friday afternoon into Saturday.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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