Mariaville Lake, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mariaville Lake, NY

June 22, 2024 11:06 AM EDT (15:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:16 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM
Moonrise 9:55 PM   Moonset 5:17 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mariaville Lake, NY
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Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 221415 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1015 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

SYNOPSIS
It will remain warm and muggy through this evening with some showers and thunderstorms around. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy downpours. With the warm and humid air mass still in place, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Sunday, with some of those storms potentially being severe. A few showers may linger into Monday, but cooler and less humid will briefly be returning to the region, before another warm and humid air mass returns towards the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1015 AM EDT...A surface boundary is draped across the Mohawk Valley and Saratoga Region. North of this boundary, lots of cloud cover is in place, along with temps in the 60s and dewpoints mainly in the 60s as well. South of the boundary, there are more breaks of sun, with temps well into the 70s and dewpoints around 70 F as well. This front is expected to start slowly drifting northward a warm front through the rest of the day.

Right along the front, a batch of showers and embedded thunderstorms is heading eastward across the western Adirondacks, western and central Mohawk Valley and Sacandaga Area. MRMS has shown some rainfall rates in excess of one inch per hour as this activity moved across Oneida County and into southwestern Herkimer County. Most of the lightning activity is within some of taller storms on the southern side of the convective cluster. Over the next few hours, this activity will continue to slide eastward towards northern parts of the Capital Region and the Lake George Saratoga Region and eventually western New England. The threat for severe weather seems minimal with this activity, but cloud-to-ground lightning and downpours capable of producing ponding in urban and poor drainage areas looks to occur. This activity should be clearing off to the east of our area by the early to mid afternoon hours.

Additional showers and storms are expected to develop with daytime heating for areas in the warm sector to the south of the boundary for late today. CAPE values increase to 1000-1500 J/kg for areas south of the frontal boundary. Shear isn't very impressive, but is slightly higher than the past few days at 25 to perhaps 30 kt for the 0-6 km layer. With a similar environment to that of the past few days, most storms will probably be of the pulse- variety, but the increased shear may help to form some loosely organized clusters as cold pools congeal. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible, with the primary threat being damaging winds as low- level lapse rates should be steep once again. North of the warm front, instability will be lower, so while there could be a few rumbles of thunder the probability for severe weather is lower.
Accordingly, SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather today for areas mainly along and south of I-90.

Any storms today could produce locally heavy rain with PWATs remaining at 1.6 to 1.9" and cloud depths of 10-12 kft. With flow parallel to the low-level boundary, some training and/or backbuilding of storms is possible, especially with slow mbE vectors. WPC has placed much of our region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding, which seems appropriate given scattered nature of storms this afternoon.

Today will remain quite hot for areas south of the warm front where highs will climb well into the 80s to low 90s. Areas north of the warm front will remain slightly cooler with high terrain areas topping out in the 70s with 80s for the valleys.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
**Heat Advisory for the mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield County, CT through 8PM Sunday.**

Convection should die off after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. However, for areas from the ADKs through southern VT, some lingering showers will remain possible overnight in the vicinity of the warm front as it continues to lift northwards.
Some embedded rumbles of thunder are also possible with showalter values of 0 to -2. It will remain quite warm and muggy, with lows in the mid and upper 60s to low 70s. Patchy fog and low stratus will once again be possible, especially for areas that receive rain during the day today.

Sunday is shaping up to be an active weather day. A potent upper shortwave and associated surface cyclone track from the Great Lakes along the international border, with the surface low deepening to around 995 mb. The warm front lifts to our north, putting our entire region in the warm sector. A pre-frontal trough will track across the region during the afternoon, ahead of the main cold front which tracks through Sunday night.
Multiple rounds of showers and storms, some strong to severe, are expected Sunday afternoon and evening...

Despite mostly cloudy skies, CAMs suggest that we will see SBCAPE values increase to 1500 to potentially 2000 J/kg. Shear looks more impressive, with guidance suggesting around 30 to 35 kt winds from the southwest at 850 mb and over 40 kt winds from the west/southwest at 500 mb. Hodographs therefore lengthen with some low-level curvature. Now, there are questions as to just how much we destabilize given the expected cloud cover, and the forcing does not look overly impressive until the cold front comes through Sunday night. Nevertheless, given the overlap of shear and expected instability, we collaborated with SPC to introduce a slight risk across the region Sunday, as any storms that do develop in the warm sector could quickly become severe.
Main threat is damaging wind gusts, but isolated instances of large hail or even a tornado can't be ruled out given the more impressive shear. All storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and heavy rain, but faster storms motions should limit the flash flood threat. Sunday will be quite warm and muggy, and if forecast confidence increases the heat advisory may need to be expanded further north up the Hudson Valley to around the Capital District.

There will likely be lingering showers and storms into Sunday evening, but the severe threat diminishes with the loss of daytime heating and waning instability. It remains warm and muggy with some patchy fog ahead of the cold front, as the front may take until 9-12z to fully clear our area and track into central New England. However, cooler temperatures and lower humidity are expected behind the front on Monday. We will likely still have some showers around as the upper trough and associated cold pool aloft move overhead, but we are not expecting severe weather or additional hydro concerns. Showers diminish Monday night as surface high pressure builds in from the southwest. Monday night temps drop into the mid to upper 50s for most areas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The extended forecast period opens with a brief period of fair and dry weather with high pressure building in from the Ohio Valley, then shifting eastward over the Mid Atlantic States. The flow aloft will be west/northwest. Temps will run above normal but humidity levels should not be too bad with dewpoints in the 50s to around 60F. Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s in the lower elevations and 70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain. The sfc anticyclone moves offshore with a return flow of more humid air beginning. A warm front will bring a slight chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm over the western Adirondacks. Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Wed-Wed night will be the most unsettled day in the long term. A prefrontal sfc trough and a cold front will bring numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Depending on the amount of instability and sfc heating, some of the storms may be on the stronger side. PWATs surge above normal by a couple standard deviations based on the latest NAEFS. Locally heavy rain will be possible. Max temps will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s in the valley areas with the best chance of lower 90s in the mid Hudson Valley with 70s to lower/mid 80s over the hills and mtns. The showers and thunderstorms should be diminishing by Thu morning. Lows will be in the 50s and lower 60s north and west of the the Capital Region and mid and upper 60s to the south and east.

Thursday through Friday...A few showers are possible with the upper trough passage and in the wake of the cold front. A cooler and drier air mass will be ridging in during the afternoon from the Great Lakes Region. Temps will be near seasonal levels with upper 70s to lower 80s below 1000 ft in elevation and 60s to mid 70s above it on Thu. Temps and humidity levels will be pleasant Thu night with 50s and even some 40s over the Adirondack Park. Zonal flow sets up aloft to close the week with the anticyclone moving over New England. Fair conditions continue with seasonable temps. CPC is predicting temperatures above normal for Days 8-14 (June 29th to July 5th) with precipitation near to slightly above normal for eastern NY and western New England.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 12Z Sunday...A stationary front is over eastern NY and western New England this morning. Multiple disturbances will move along the boundary in the late morning through the afternoon producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, as it slowly lifts northward into tonight. The showers and thunderstorms will diminish overnight.

Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs and MVFR/VFR vsbys are impacting KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF this morning. Some LIFR conditions are continuing at KPSF. KGFL has been mainly MVFR with cigs 1.5-3.0 kft AGL. Some showers nearby may briefly lower cigs to IFR. The TAF sites will slowly improve to MVFR/VFR levels by the late morning. KALB/KPSF will linger the longest at IFR levels.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will form ahead of the frontal boundary with weak waves moving along it close to noontime impacting KGFL/KALB first. We used TEMPO groups to bring showers/thunderstorms in between 16Z-22Z from north to south, except later at KPOU in the 22Z/SAT to 02Z/SUN timeframe.
Conditions will lower to MVFR and spotty IFR in the showers/storms. There is a secondary wave of showers/thunderstorms in the 00Z-06Z/SUN time frame that may occur that we placed PROB30 groups in for all the sites and we lowered the cigs/vsbys to MVFR/IFR levels. Low stratus with some mist and fog continues thereafter and we placed IFR level stratus with IFR/MVFR mist the murky air mass.

The winds will be light/variable at 4 KT or less this morning.
They will be southeast to south at less than 7 KT in the afternoon and will become light to calm tonight.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ064>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSCH SCHENECTADY COUNTY,NY 7 sm19 mincalm10 smMostly Cloudy79°F72°F79%30.02
KALB ALBANY INTL,NY 15 sm15 minSE 0410 smOvercast79°F72°F79%30.01
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Wind History graph: SCH
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Tide / Current for Troy, Hudson River, New York
   
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Troy
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Sat -- 12:18 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT     5.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:05 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:24 PM EDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
0.1
1
am
0.3
2
am
1.5
3
am
3
4
am
4.3
5
am
5.1
6
am
5.5
7
am
5.2
8
am
4.3
9
am
3.1
10
am
2.1
11
am
1.3
12
pm
0.4
1
pm
-0.1
2
pm
0.3
3
pm
1.5
4
pm
2.7
5
pm
3.4
6
pm
3.8
7
pm
3.7
8
pm
3.1
9
pm
2.1
10
pm
1.3
11
pm
0.8


Tide / Current for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:08 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     5.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:55 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:16 PM EDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Albany, New York, Tide feet
12
am
0.1
1
am
0.5
2
am
1.7
3
am
3.2
4
am
4.4
5
am
5.2
6
am
5.5
7
am
5.1
8
am
4.1
9
am
3
10
am
2
11
am
1.1
12
pm
0.3
1
pm
-0.1
2
pm
0.5
3
pm
1.7
4
pm
2.8
5
pm
3.5
6
pm
3.8
7
pm
3.7
8
pm
3
9
pm
2
10
pm
1.2
11
pm
0.8


Weather Map
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Albany, NY,




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