Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakeville, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure will drift east into New England tonight, with increasing mid and high clouds building in from the west overnight.
The departing high will provide a period of good radiational cooling conditions, especially east of Lake Ontario where lows will dip into the 20s tonight.

On Monday weakening low pressure will track across the central Great Lakes and into Ontario province Monday night. An associated warm front will move across the area early Monday, followed by a cold front late Monday afternoon and evening. Each boundary will produce a round of showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms. Much of Western NY will briefly break into the warm sector during the day Monday, providing a break in between showers and allowing temperatures to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

There will be a 45-50 knot LLJ with both fronts, which will partially mix to the surface downslope of the Chautauqua Ridge Monday morning and in most other areas Monday evening following the cold frontal passage. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph can be expected.
The LLJ will also result in some wind shear during the day Monday, however surface based instability will be limited, perhaps reaching 500 J/Kg in the Southern Tier. This will result in a few thunderstorms with a low but non-zero risk for a few stronger storms during the day. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will taper off from west to east Monday night.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Mid- level trough axis centered across New York state Tuesday morning will lift northeast into New England through Tuesday night. In it's wake, zonal flow will set up across the Great Lakes supporting surface high pressure to elongate south out of Canada and into the Great Lakes Tuesday through Wednesday. This surface high will then slide east across the eastern Great Lakes and into New England Thursday and into Thursday night. Overall expect mainly dry weather throughout much of the middle of this week. Outside of this, temperatures will warm above normal Wednesday and Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The next mid-level trough will dig southeast out of the Canadian Plains and into the Great Lakes Friday and Friday night. From here it will continue to intensify as it passes east into Quebec, dragging its trough axis across the region Saturday and Saturday night. As a result, expect rainy weather to return Friday through Saturday night. Additionally, a few rumbles of thunder may be possible.

The next mid-level ridge will build east across the upper Great Lakes late Saturday night through Sunday, supporting surface high pressure to return across the Great Lakes and begin to dry things out.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure across the region provides high confidence in VFR flight conditions through most of tonight. High clouds will increase from west to east overnight in advance of an approaching warm front. This front will produce a round of showers Monday morning, which may briefly lower vsby to 5SM at times, but is unlikely to lower cigs into the MVFR flight category.

Expect a break in the showers at most locations mid-day Monday, then another round of showers with embedded thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front.
This will lower most sites to MVFR.

Outlook...

Monday night.. MVFR/VFR. Showers ending from west to east.
Lingering MVFR cigs possible overnight.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely.

MARINE
High pressure across the waters will bring a brief period of light winds through this evening. This will give way to increasing easterlies overnight, especially on Lake Ontario.
This will produce choppy conditions on the western end of Lake Ontario where a Small Craft advisory was issued.

Winds will become southerly on Monday following the passage of a warm front, then quickly swing around to southwest Monday evening with the passage of a cold front. Moderate southwesterlies will bring another around of Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario late Monday through Tuesday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Monday for LOZ042.