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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 645 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Rain in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Showers during the day, then a chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely during the day, then rain and snow showers likely Monday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 302344 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 644 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will slide off the east coast tonight keeping dry weather across the area through much of tonight. A series of low pressure systems will bring generally unsettled, but milder weather for the end of the work week and the upcoming weekend with periodic rain chances.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Currently partly to mostly cloudy across the area with some mid- level clouds across the area, especially for areas east of the Genesee Valley. Earlier gusty winds are starting to weaken some in most areas. Temperatures are in the low 40s to near 50 from the higher terrain to the lower elevations.

Dry and breezy conditions will start tonight with an expansive mid and upper cloud deck spreading across the region through the night. Weak cold front across the upper Great Lakes will slide toward the region late tonight and could bring a few showers toward Friday morning to the eastern Lake Ontario region.
Otherwise, a not so cold night with low temperatures only dropping in the mid to upper 30s, with some lower 40s along the lake plains.

Attention will then turn to the southern stream shortwave lifting out of the southern plains where it will then redirect towards the Ohio Valley River through tonight. A surface low will develop in response to the wave over the southern plains and will trail the wave, reaching the Ohio Valley by Friday afternoon. Deep layer system relative isentropic ascent will commence in anticipation of the arrival of the shortwave which will bring widespread precipitation to the entire region. The precipitation will start early Friday morning across western New York, reaching north central New York and the Finger Lakes by midday. Precipitation type does not look to be much an issue with thermal profiles warm enough for rain, with perhaps an outside chance for a brief mix with wet snow across the highest terrain. Forecast rainfall amounts will NOT cause any hydro issues and stay under a half inch.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough will move from the eastern Great Lakes region to the Canadian Maritimes Friday night. Widespread rain will exit the North Country Friday evening while drier air and subsidence increase across the region. Mostly dry conditions are expected across western NY, however rain will begin to enter far western NY by Saturday morning. Low temperatures will fall to the mid to upper 30s, low 30s across the Tug Hill region.

An area of low pressure will move from Lake Erie to central NY Saturday. A tight baroclinic zone will be stretched across the region as a shortwave trough moves overhead. Forcing and moisture will increase ahead of the surface low, with steady, light rain on the cool side of the baroclinic zone, mainly north of I-90. Further south, the region will be placed in the warm sector with temperatures reaching the low 50s from the western Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes region. Rain showers are possible however coverage will be less than further north. Rainfall amounts will average less than 0.20 inch. Highs will range from the low 40s across the North Country to the low 50s near the Pennsylvania border. The surface low will move southeast of the region Saturday night. The pattern becomes amplified across the eastern U.S.
Saturday night into Sunday as a ridge builds across the east coast and a trough deepens across the Mid-West. Initially, mostly dry weather is expected Saturday night however increasing moisture from the west may produce a few showers. A shortwave trough will approach the region with a 175kt+ jet on the leeward side of the long wave trough. Surface low pressure will deepen slowly as it approaches the eastern Great Lakes. Another round of steady rain is looking more likely Sunday through Sunday night. Above normal temperatures will continue Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 40s across western NY and the low to mid 40s east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Partial phasing of the northern and southern jets will result in a transient troughing pattern over the eastern Great Lakes and a strengthening ridge across the western CONUS through much of next week. Cyclonic flow of cold, moist air with H850 temps averaging around -7C will result in a mix of lake-enhanced rain and snow showers across the forecast area Monday, especially east/southeast of the lakes. Some minor accumulations across the higher terrain areas not out of the question by Monday night as EQLs will grow to around 7-8k feet, though limited moisture through the DGZ should greatly limit the potential for more significant snow accumulations.

A narrow wedge of surface high pressure and shortwave ridging will move across the lakes late Monday night through Tuesday. Despite 850H temps remaining cold, the lowering subsidence inversion and mid- level dry air will put a large damper on the lake response east/southeast of the lakes. Uncertainty grows moving further into the mid-week period as one shortwave trough passes southeast of the area across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night, as another pivots around a mid-level closed low over the Canadian Maritimes. Have leaned towards a drier solution based on deterministic trends and as overall moisture looks limited, though best chances for precip Tuesday night into Wednesday will be across the western Southern Tier. Next trough axis will approach the region from the northwest sometime Thursday, with increasing chances for rain and snow showers across the area.

Otherwise...The troughing pattern across the forecast area will cause temperatures to hedge near to slightly below normal through much of next week, with highs mainly in the 30s and lows ranging in the 20s...Though likely colder across the Tug Hill and Western Dacks with highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Widespread VFR with only passing cirrus level clouds through at least 06z tonight. Earlier SSW/SW winds gusting 20-30 knots will continue to subside this evening. A cold front will approach from the northwest late tonight, with low VFR/MVFR CIGS moving back in from NW to SE late tonight. Strong low level jet off the deck this evening, as surface winds decrease there will be the risk for low level wind shear for all TAF sites.

Widespread rain moves in Friday morning with CIGS deteriorating from west to east with most terminals developing IFR CIGS between 15z-18z with VSBYS likely not going lower that MVFR.

Outlook...

Saturday...Restrictions likely in widespread rain and possible fog.
Sunday and Monday...Restrictions possible in scattered to numerous rain showers, possibly mixed with snow for higher terrain.
Tuesday...Restrictions possible in scattered lake effect mixed showers.

MARINE
Strong southwest flow will continue to keep winds and waves above headline criteria through early Friday morning, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for all but the lower Niagara River and Saint Lawrence River at this time.

Winds and waves subside Friday into the weekend with conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LOZ042>045.

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