Saugatuck, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saugatuck, MI

June 22, 2024 12:04 PM EDT (16:04 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 9:28 PM
Moonrise 9:47 PM   Moonset 5:10 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Expires:202406222115;;468218 Fzus63 Kmkx 221410 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 910 am cdt Sat jun 22 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.

Synopsis -
light winds will transition to southerly and gusty across the southern two-thirds of the open waters and to easterly and gusty across the northern one-third this morning into this afternoon as low pressure around 29.6 inches develops in southern minnesota. This low will progress through northern lake michigan this evening into tonight, bringing widespread Thunderstorms along a cold front. Winds across the lake then shift northwesterly late tonight into Sunday morning as storms end. Winds will diminish but remain northwesterly through Sunday night, with high pressure around 30.0 inches building in Monday and producing light and variable winds.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-222115- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 910 am cdt Sat jun 22 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .

Rest of today - South winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.

Tonight - South winds 15 to 25 kt veering to west. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

Sunday - Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.

Sunday night - West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.

Monday - North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 1 to 3 ft.

Tuesday - South winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft.

Wednesday - Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

No data

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1203 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024


-Potential severe weather and flooding today/this evening

-Dry Monday, strong storms possible Tuesday/Tuesday night

-Dry Wednesday/Thursday, storminess returns next weekend

Issued at 1137 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Based on the latest wave model forecasts, we expanded the small craft advisory and beach hazards statement one county/zone further north.

One area of heavy rain was tracking through the Pentwater to Ludington region. It appears that fairly widespread amounts of around an inch may accompany this initial batch. Additional heavy rain is likely this afternoon and evening with the storms in southern WI tracking east northeast. Off of SPC's meso analysis page, PWAT values were around 2 inches in this region with really impressive 925-850 mb moisture transport going on. 12z soundings from GRB and APX support an efficient warm rain event along with warm topped convection with the MPL well under the trop. Rainfall rates could easily top an inch per hour. Thus we will maintain the flood watch.

As for the severe potential, low level convergence was maximized closer to the warm front over the northern zones with divergence flow further south. Instability was building throughout the area with ML CAPE values up to 500 J/kg and bulk effective shear values over 30 knots. An area of stronger 0-1 km shear vectors was noted west of Pentwater and moving northeast. The flow remains relatively divergent for much of the CWA for a few more hours so we may struggle to develop widespread convection. However by mid afternoon and more so late afternoon we could start to see an increase in the low level convergence which would support newer storm development. We will also need to monitor the trends of the storms in southern WI as when the try to track into the CWA, they could generate enough low level lift to persist. Given the favorable instability and shear at that time, we could end up with an organized cluster of storms rolling through. Until then, it appears the northern parts of the region is the favored location for strongest storms given stronger 0-1 km bulk shear values through mid afternoon.

Issued at 332 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

-Potential severe weather and flooding today/this evening

A warm front has lifted to the northern cwa early this morning where it's expected to become quasi stationary today. Low pressure in Nebraska will move ENE toward Wisconsin by this afternoon. A strong southwest flow ahead of the low is helping to bring in moisture-rich air and precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches is expected today.

There will be some destabilization ahead of the low across the northern and central cwa today. Thunderstorms will likely spread east from Wisconsin. CAPE values are not particularly impressive.
However, shear values increase to 45 knots this afternoon. An impressive LLJ is progd to move toward the northwest CWA this afternoon. A weak short wave aloft will aid in convective generation. It's possible that as the shear increases we could see some low topped supercells develop. Impressive helicity values around 400 m2/s2 move over the northern rows this afternoon near the frontal boundary. It's not out of the question a tornado or two could spin up along the boundary.

As the low crosses northern Lower around 00z, the trailing cold front will begin to move south. Showers/storms will form along the cold front and move across the rest of the cwa during the evening and overnight. Areas south of I-96 will likely see a bit more destabilization today due to a bit more sunshine. And so any storms that form along the cold front will be able to tap into that instability. Strong wind gusts and torrential rainfall will be the main threats. Precipitation will be ending by Sunday morning.

Today will be the last day of the Heat Advisory. Heat indices will top out in the mid 90s again today. A cold front will move across the state tonight leading to highs in the 75 to 80 degree range Sunday.

-Dry Monday; strong storms possible Tuesday/Tuesday night

Monday will feature sunshine and comfortable temps/humidity with surface ridging in control before a warm front returns on Tuesday and sends back the heat and humidity for a day. GFS has SB Capes exceeding 3000 J/KG Tuesday afternoon once the warm sector arrives, setting the stage for the possibility of some stronger storms by evening as a cold front and H5 shortwave trough approach from the northwest.

-Dry Wednesday/Thursday; storminess returns next weekend

The cold front exits early Wednesday and we dry out by afternoon as cooler/drier air arrives from the north. High pressure settles in for Thursday with dry weather still prevailing, but then models diverge which leads to low confidence timing the return of our next chance of showers and storms. The more progressive GFS has rain chances returning already on Friday whereas ECMWF holds off until Saturday.

Issued at 745 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Showers and storms impacting MKG and GRR through Noon with ocnl MVFR/IFR vsbys then the rain lifts primarily north of these two terminals this afternoon before returning again this evening.

Otherwise VFR weather prevailing all day for the terminals south and east of GRR. The potential for showers and storms does not really ramp up across this area until after about 02Z tonight.
Winds increasing to 12-22 kts out of the southwest by Noon today.

After the passage of a cold front late tonight the storm threat ends then lower cigs in the MVFR or IFR category will press southward after 06Z.

Issued at 332 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Wind and waves will increase behind a cold front tonight necessitating a Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards statement south of Grand Haven. Wind and waves will decrease late tonight.
Additionally, thunderstorms will pose a threat to boaters and beachgoers today and tonight.

Issued at 332 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Very juicy air with precipitable water values north of 2 inches are expected across the cwa today. A stationary frontal boundary over the northern cwa will focus showers and thunderstorms today.
Any of these storms will be capable of producing torrential rainfall. Training echos will be an issue today and local probability matched mean values hint at the potential for 2 to 4 inches of rain along US-10 in an area that saw locally heavy rainfall from storms yesterday. As a result, we have issued a Flood Watch for the northern 3 rows of counties from noon today through 6 am Sunday. Local flooding of poor drainage areas is possible.

MI...Flood Watch through late tonight for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052.
Beach Hazards Statement from 8 PM EDT this evening through Sunday morning for MIZ050-056-064-071.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ056-057-064>067- 071>074.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday for LMZ844>847.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45029 19 mi35 minS 12G14 73°F 69°F1 ft69°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi47 minS 15G17 75°F 73°F29.9068°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 24 mi35 minS 12G14 69°F 65°F29.9066°F
45161 28 mi25 min 1 ft
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi25 minSSE 16G17 72°F 29.8870°F
45168 34 mi45 minSW 14G18 76°F 72°F2 ft29.9368°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi45 minS 15G16 77°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBIV28 sm71 minSW 1110 smMostly Cloudy84°F66°F55%29.95
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Wind History graph: BIV
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Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,

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