Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saugatuck, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 343 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

- Frost and Areas of Freezing Temperatures Tonight

Temperatures are dropping quickly behind a cold front in northwestern areas this afternoon. High pressure will move over Lower Michigan tonight, allowing winds to calm while skies become mostly clear. We will be starting frost/freeze alerts for our area up to US-10 (Mason through Clare county) given recent warmth and the increasing susceptibility of certain plants to freezing temperatures. Guidance suggests the most likely areas for widespread freezing temperatures will be from Oceana, Newaygo, Montcalm, and Gratiot counties to the north. South of there, areas of frost (and isolated spots of temperatures below 32) are still expected as 2- meter temperatures drop toward the mid 30s. Local variability in temperatures will be a factor given the calm winds leading to colder air settling into the typically colder low spots.

- Showers and Storms Wed Night through Thu Night

Rounds of rain along with some areas of thunderstorms are likely between Wednesday night and Thursday night. A good soaking rain is expected given interquartile QPF from the ENS between 0.75 and 1.25 inches. The upper level shortwave trough responsible for this will be kicked out of Texas tomorrow ahead of a digging northern Plains trough. This will bring a good moisture return from the Gulf along with a deepening low pressure system tracking from Missouri to Lower Michigan. A warm sector may develop southeast of Kalamazoo-Lansing Thursday afternoon, along with some surface- based CAPE although the amount of which is currently questionable.
This may raise some concern for a marginal severe weather threat given ample low-level shear.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 708 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Scattered high clouds and a few daytime Cu around 3.5kft will diminish over the next few hours. Only a few high cirrus are possible overnight into midday Wednesday with SKC below 25kft through late morning. Late Wednesday morning high clouds will thicken with any cigs remaining above 15kft through the end of the TAF window. West-northwest gusts in excess of 20 knots will diminish shortly after sunset. Winds will veer to northeasterly and then southeasterly late this evening with winds overnight into Wednesday below 10 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 343 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Conditions hazardous to small craft persist through Tue evening on Lake Michigan. West winds are trending north with cooler air flowing in. There has been a recent uptick in wind speeds at Big Sable Point and slight uptick in waves at the Central Lake Michigan waverider buoy. Conditions have been a bit more tame farther south at the Port Sheldon and South Haven buoys, but some gusts to 25 knots remain possible due to the cooler air flowing in. Waves subside tonight into Wednesday with light offshore winds.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ037>040-043>046-051-052.
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ050- 056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.