Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 9:20PM Thursday July 18, 2019 1:08 PM EDT (17:08 UTC) Moonrise 9:45PMMoonset 6:53AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Expires:201907182145;;253251 Fzus63 Kmkx 181406 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 906 Am Cdt Thu Jul 18 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure around 29.4 inches crossing ontario will drag a trough through the great lakes today. Look for increasing southerly winds today and Friday. SEveral rounds of Thunderstorms are expected to roll across lake michigan tonight and possibly again into the weekend before what looks like a nice, dry stretch of weather. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-182145- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 906 am cdt Thu jul 18 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Numerous showers and Thunderstorms through mid morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ874


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 181540
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1140 am edt Thu jul 18 2019
latest update...

update

Update
Issued at 1140 am edt Thu jul 18 2019
updated the forecast for pops, clouds, winds and temperatures.

Extensive cloud cover and scattered showers and storms should
persist through the afternoon as indicated by satellite and radar
loops along with latest short range model guidance. Kept the
headlines unchanged although it is looking like heat warning and
advisory criteria may not be met today.

South to southeast wind gusts in the coastal zones to 30 knots or
higher late this morning will spread inland the next few hours as
indicated by mesoscale models as a wake low over wisconsin has
formed behind the mcs.

Synopsis
Issued at 318 am edt Thu jul 18 2019
- a band of storms expected to swing through the great lakes this
morning, but present indications are the strongest parts will
remain to our southwest.

- thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected tonight and again
Saturday night with a localized flooding threat.

- oppressive heat is expected late this afternoon through
Saturday, especially along and south of i-96.

- much calmer and cooler conditions are expected from Sunday
onward.

Discussion (today through next Wednesday)
issued at 318 am edt Thu jul 18 2019
robust elevated thunderstorms continue along nose of a low-level jet
in northern iowa and southern minnesota with subtle but increasing
signs of a consolidating cold pool and forward-propagating
elements. As the cold pool continues to deepen this morning, a
more dominant east southeasterly track will become established
with the MCS propagating into central wisconsin by sunrise. By
that point in time, the system may become surface-based and
intensify owing to boundary layer destabilization presenting the
risks for gusty winds, torrential rainfall, and cloud to ground
lightning. The only question at this point is just where the mcs,
at least strongest portion, will go. The ultimate track will
depend on the intrinsic details of the MCS itself, though our
hunch is the strongest part will probably track southwest of lower
michigan and through the chicago metro area giving our area a
band of showers with embedded thunder. At least abundant cloud
cover is a good bet from this morning through early afternoon, but
clearing skies by late afternoon in tandem with southerly flow
(enhanced by a wake low?) will turn on the sauna and boost heat
indices into the mid to upper 90s by dinnertime.

Tonight, the low-level jet will redevelop (perhaps a smidge stronger
than this morning) and take aim at central wisconsin to western
lower michigan. The position of the outflow boundary from convection
today will determine the location of renewed convective development
tonight (e.G. Isentropic ascent atop the residual low-level cold
pool), with a greater signal for heavy rainfall across central
wisconsin than western lower michigan. The activity may end up
further south than models currently advertise given the expected
track of the MCS this morning. Regardless, with pwats progged to
climb above 2" and a low-level jet pointing right toward our area,
there is growing concern for a swath of healthy rainfall totals
(>2") with localized flooding across western lower michigan.

Convection may continue into the daylight hours Friday, leaving
behind an outflow boundary (e.G. Effective front) somewhere in
central lower michigan.

South of the effective front, oppressive heat is expected Friday and
Saturday with highs in the mid (to upper?) 90s, lows in the mid to
upper 70s, and MAX heat indices in the lower 100s. Along and north
of the front is more of a wild card (especially considering the
potential for diurnal convection and perhaps even a random mcs).

However, confidence is reasonably high that areas along and south of
i-96 will experience the worst conditions with a prolonged period of
oppressive heat and humidity. All things considered and in
collaboration with iwx dtx, we opted to issue an excessive heat
warning along and south of i-96 and a heat advisory to the north,
but the message across all of southern lower michigan is the same:
limit your time and strenuous activities outdoors, drink plenty of
fluids, and check in on your neighbors and loved ones.

A cold front will swing through Saturday night and put an end to
our brief heat wave. However, considerable post-frontal convection
may lead to a period of heavy rainfall into Sunday morning,
prompting the introduction of a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall from the weather prediction center (wpc). Should the same
area get hit repeatedly from this morning through early Sunday
morning, rainfall totals may get out of hand with flooding of
roadways and low-lying areas. As such, we've issued a hydrologic
outlook (esf) to message the potential for localized flooding.

Forecast deterministic and ensemble model guidance is in fair
agreement that Sunday onward will be much more comfortable and
drier as somewhat persistent troughing develops across the eastern
half of the united states.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 749 am edt Thu jul 18 2019
showers and tstms currently in wi expected to move through from
mid morning through mid afternoon, leading to ocnl MVFR or lower
vsbys in rain. After this batch moves through, confidence is low
as to timing coverage of later convection. Have played it as a
lull from mid afternoon through mid evening, with re-newed
nocturnal low level jet convection develop toward midnight.

Marine
Issued at 318 am edt Thu jul 18 2019
thunderstorms are expected late this morning and again early Friday
morning with gusty winds and frequent cloud to water lightning.

South to southwesterly winds this afternoon through Friday will lead
to 3-5 ft waves thereby making conditions hazardous to boaters and
swimmers alike, mainly north of holland. Given the high water
levels, minor beach erosion is also possible mainly on the southern
sides of the points. Another chance for thunderstorms will arrive
late Saturday, after which calmer conditions will prevail into early
next week.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt Saturday for miz056>059-
064>067-071>074.

Beach hazards statement through Friday evening for miz037-043-
050-056.

Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Saturday for miz037>040-043>046-
050>052.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Friday for lmz846>849.

Update... Ostuno
synopsis... Borchardt
discussion... Borchardt
aviation... Meade
marine... Borchardt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45029 19 mi38 min SW 9.7 G 12 72°F 72°F2 ft1013.5 hPa68°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi62 min W 14 G 17 73°F 76°F1014.5 hPa71°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 24 mi38 min SSW 9.7 G 12 70°F 70°F1015 hPa70°F
45161 28 mi68 min SSW 14 G 18 72°F 73°F1 ft1012.1 hPa (+0.6)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi38 min SW 37 G 41 73°F 1008.8 hPa71°F
45168 34 mi38 min W 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 75°F2 ft1015 hPa69°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi38 min W 9.9 G 11 73°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi68 min NW 8.9 G 13 74°F 1016.9 hPa (+3.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi75 minWNW 84.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist75°F72°F90%1014.4 hPa

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Last 24hrNW7W8NW7W9W8W7W5CalmE3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S6S6S4SW5W11W8SW6
1 day agoSW12W8W8W5W6W83NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalm34E5E4--
2 days agoSW11SW14W14SW14SW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.