Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:12PM Friday December 6, 2019 7:38 AM EST (12:38 UTC) Moonrise 2:38PMMoonset 2:06AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Expires:201912061630;;928566 Fzus63 Kmkx 060851 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 251 Am Cst Fri Dec 6 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Gusty north to northwest winds developed overnight in the wake of a weak low pressure system. High pressure of 30.3 inches will move into the great lakes this afternoon and night, resulting in diminishing winds. Low pressure around 29.6 inches approaching from the northern plains will bring a round of gusty southerly winds Saturday into Sunday as the low crosses ontario. Gale force gusts are expected and a gale watch is in effect. Gusty northerly winds will develop in the wake of the system later Monday into Tuesday, possibly approaching gale force. A much colder airmass spreading into the region next week will lead to freezing spray conditions. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-061630- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 251 am cst Fri dec 6 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
.gale watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday morning...
Today..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late in the evening, then becoming west after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south 15 to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Saturday night..South gales to 35 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft building to 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft.
Sunday..Southwest gales to 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft subsiding to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south 10 to 15 kt. Rain likely. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..South winds 10 to 20 kt veering to northwest to 30 kt. Rain likely. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest winds to 30 kt becoming west 15 to 25 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
LMZ874


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 061119 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 619 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

- Quiet weather conditions into Sunday Morning

- Rain developing Sunday into Monday

- Transition from rain to snow Monday Night

- Arctic Blast (lake effect snow and cold) Tuesday and Wednesday

- Marine concerns due to large waves and erosion

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Thursday) Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Dry weather and quiet conditions are expected across the forecast area today through Saturday night. A weak clipper system largely missed our area to the north tonight and high pressure will move in tonight. Southwest flow develops on Saturday with precipitation holding off it appears until Sunday at the earliest. Highs primarily in the 30s today and Saturday will warm into the 40s on Sunday in the warm air advection southerly flow.

A stationary front will sharpen Sunday night over Lower Michigan as low pressure develops in the plains. The low in the plains will work our direction heading into Monday as the upper trough deepens overhead. Precipitation ramps up Sunday night into Monday as forcing increases due to a strong shortwave moving through the mean upper trough. It looks like rain will be the dominant precipitation type from Sunday through Monday as 850mb temps will be in the 0C to +4C. Rainfall amounts have been forecast consistently to be in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range.

A cold front will blast through the area Monday night changing the precipitation over from rain to snow rather quickly. The lake effect snow machine will commence Monday night and continue probably right into Thursday. The main time frame of concern for lake effect snow will be Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday. Delta T's in this time frame will be high to extreme in the 20C to 30C degree range. Moisture depth is decent, but it is a bit lacking over time. Looking at the 850mb to 700mb layer which is where lake effect events separate themselves from ok to significant, the moisture is rather weak, less than 70 percent. That said, lake effect will occur and we will turn the lakeshore white again where the snow has melted. Of bigger concern will be travel issues that develop as highs on Wednesday will hold in the teens. When we get temperatures this cold and snow is occurring (even if its the fine powdery light snow like this event will be) we develop travel issues as salt is much less effective. People will need to be aware that travel concerns will develop from Tuesday into Wednesday across Western Lower Michigan.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 619 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

MVFR ceilings will continue through the morning before lifting to VFR this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile northwest winds up to 10 knots will last through much of the day before becoming light and variable through the overnight hours tonight as high pressure moves in.

MARINE. Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

The calendar says we are in the active portion of the year in terms of wind/wave events on Lake Michigan and the forecast will verify that. Multiple high wind/large wave events are expected over the coming days. Given the high water levels and lakeshore concerns for erosion the forecast is not good news over the course of the next 5 days.

The first event is beginning right now as northerly flow ramps up this morning. This event will be somewhat short lived with the peak in the winds occurring this morning. North winds to 30-35 knots are expected for the next 6 hours or so. Waves will build to 4-7 feet in the nearshore, with the worst of conditions occurring south of Holland this morning. A small craft advisory is in effect, running through this evening. It will take all day for the waves to fall below 4 feet.

The second event occurs Saturday afternoon, stretching through Saturday night and Sunday. Late Saturday night into Sunday morning we will approach if not reach gale force in southwest flow. The worst of conditions in this event will be north of Holland where 6-10 footers are expected. We may need a Gale Warning and a Lakeshore Flood headline.

The third event will occur Monday night into Tuesday as northwest cold air advection winds ramp up. This could be a prolonged wind and wave event into Wednesday. Waves will likely at least push into the 6 to 10 foot range.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . Duke DISCUSSION . Duke AVIATION . Honor MARINE . Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi57 min NNW 26 G 31 38°F 40°F1015.8 hPa33°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi39 min NNE 16 G 20 36°F 1019 hPa (+4.0)28°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi39 min NNW 22 G 28 39°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi39 min N 20 G 25 39°F 1017.9 hPa (+3.3)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi46 minNNW 14 G 2310.00 miOvercast38°F30°F76%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIV

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW5NW7W6W8W8SW8SW7SW7SW4CalmS5SE4S5S6S5SW4SW11
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2 days agoSW13SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.