Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saugatuck, MI
January 14, 2025 8:52 PM EST (01:52 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 8:10 AM Sunset 5:36 PM Moonrise 6:25 PM Moonset 9:09 AM |
LMZ874 Expires:202501150430;;579356 Fzus63 Kmkx 142012 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 212 pm cst Tue jan 14 2025
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
high pressure of 30.6 inches centered near the border of the dakotas and minnesota, will slide southeast to the western ohio river valley by Wednesday morning. This will result in breezy northwest winds this afternoon easing a bit and becoming westerly overnight. Breezy southwest winds are then expected to develop later Wednesday into Wednesday night between the high to the south and low pressure of 29.5 inches moving east through northern ontario. Gusts to 30 knots are expected Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, with a few gusts to gale force possible in the north.
winds will be a bit lighter out of the northwest Thursday behind a departing trough, but will remain breezy. Winds will then return to southwesterly on Friday ahead of the next low pressure system, with a chance for gales during this period, especially across the north half of the lake.
much colder temperatures are expected to return to the area this weekend into early next week, with a period of freezing spray likely, especially across the eastern half of the lake.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-150430- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 212 pm cst Tue jan 14 2025
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Tonight - Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 10 to 15 kt. Chance of snow this evening, then slight chance of snow overnight. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Wednesday - West winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt late in the morning, then becoming southwest early in the afternoon increasing to 15 to 25 kt late. Slight chance of snow in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Wednesday night - Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming west. Chance of snow. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Thursday - West winds to 30 kt becoming northwest. Chance of snow in the morning. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Thursday night - Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Friday - South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Friday night - Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Saturday - North winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Sunday - Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Freezing spray. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 212 pm cst Tue jan 14 2025
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
high pressure of 30.6 inches centered near the border of the dakotas and minnesota, will slide southeast to the western ohio river valley by Wednesday morning. This will result in breezy northwest winds this afternoon easing a bit and becoming westerly overnight. Breezy southwest winds are then expected to develop later Wednesday into Wednesday night between the high to the south and low pressure of 29.5 inches moving east through northern ontario. Gusts to 30 knots are expected Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, with a few gusts to gale force possible in the north.
winds will be a bit lighter out of the northwest Thursday behind a departing trough, but will remain breezy. Winds will then return to southwesterly on Friday ahead of the next low pressure system, with a chance for gales during this period, especially across the north half of the lake.
much colder temperatures are expected to return to the area this weekend into early next week, with a period of freezing spray likely, especially across the eastern half of the lake.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-150430- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 212 pm cst Tue jan 14 2025
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
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Area Discussion for Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 150146 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 846 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Snow showers to taper off later tonight and Wednesday
- Light snow Wednesday night/Thursday then mild through Saturday
- Arctic air and lake effect snow showers first half of next week
UPDATE
Issued at 845 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Have cancelled the remainder of the Winter Weather Advisory early. Radar returns along the lakeshore have been light with no significant visibility reductions noted in the sfc observations.
Light snow showers or flurries lingering overnight but any additional accumulations expected to be less than an inch.
Backing low level flow later tonight/early Wed will send the flurries back inland and areas which have cleared out near/east of Highway 131 should eventually cloud back over. That clearing has resulted in temps already falling into the single digits at several locations so tonight's min temps will need adjusted to account for that.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 313 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
- Snow showers to taper off later tonight and Wednesday
We will be holding on to the headlines as is for this afternoon, after dropping the rest of the eastern counties earlier this afternoon.
The passage of the upper short wave and associated sfc trough earlier today has set up the area now with a flow from the NW. This is focusing the snow showers across the SW and NW sections of the forecast area, with just a few light snow showers inland. The passage of the upper trough earlier also has tempered the snow showers a bit as inversion heights and moisture depth has dropped to around 5k ft, down from 10k+ ft from earlier.
We are expecting an uptick in the snow showers this evening and early overnight for the favored NW flow areas. This will be the result of additional short wave activity that will be approaching from the NW tonight. Inversion heights and moisture is expected to increase a bit. This is likely to bring another 2-5 inches for those favored areas through 06z. After 06z, the short wave energy passes, and the low level flow becomes more westerly. This will tend to spread the snow showers out a bit as they move inland.
The upper flow then transitions to more anti-cyclonic flow on Wednesday as the trough moves out and short wave ridging builds in.
This should help the snow showers almost completely dissipate in the afternoon.
- Light snow Wednesday night/Thursday then mild through Saturday
The break in the snow activity will be short lived, as light snow will spread back in over most of the area Wednesday night. Another short wave dives into the region from the NW. A bit of warm and moist advection takes place ahead of this wave, providing the light snow. This snow looks like it would be mainly an inch or so by itself. The low level flow from the SW, and 925-850 mb temps of -10 to -11C will provide enough of a boost to increase forecast snow amounts to 3 inches or so along the lakeshore north of Grand Haven.
The majority of this snow will happen between 00z and 18z Thursday.
This is when the best lift and moisture is in place. The snow is expected to lighten up Thursday afternoon, and may transition to more drizzle/freezing drizzle as the deeper moisture is lost, and the DGZ becomes unsaturated. Temperatures for most of the area should surge into the mid 30s. Some locations could see temps stay around freezing and cause some issues.
We should be dry for most of Friday with another mild day with highs in the 30s once again. Low level moisture looks to be fairly plentiful, but some clearing looks possible across the southern portion of the forecast area.
A cold front then drops in from the NW later Friday night, bringing the leading edge of colder air into the area. This front will initially be quite dry, but it will be starting to draw moisture out of the Gulf with a long southerly fetch ahead of the front. We may see the precipitation starting out as a rain and/or snow mix as it will initially be warm enough. Any lingering precipitation on Saturday will change over to light snow showers before ending.
- Arctic air and lake effect snow showers first half of next week
Once the leading edge of the cold arrives on Saturday, the cold air will just continue to flood in across the region. The upper air pattern will see a long wave trough become established over the eastern 3/4's of North America.
The flow with the upper trough and in the lower levels will feature a long trajectory from across the North Pole. This flow will bring -25C air at 850 mb over the area for next Monday and Tuesday. This will support highs in the single digits, and plenty of lake effect snow showers. The lake effect will be of the small flake size with the DGZ being quite limited by the arctic air, so it will not accumulate significantly. It is likely to cause impacts with reduced visibility and roads staying slick.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 631 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Radar shows light shsn moving south along the lake shore. A few of these snow showers may clip MKG. However, inland terminals are clear to scattered VFR.
As winds become more westerly overnight, look for some lake stratocu and the occasional snow shower to move inland, creating an MVFR deck after 06z. Once the snow showers finally end mid morning, we'll see ceilings rise to VFR after 18z.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 846 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Snow showers to taper off later tonight and Wednesday
- Light snow Wednesday night/Thursday then mild through Saturday
- Arctic air and lake effect snow showers first half of next week
UPDATE
Issued at 845 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Have cancelled the remainder of the Winter Weather Advisory early. Radar returns along the lakeshore have been light with no significant visibility reductions noted in the sfc observations.
Light snow showers or flurries lingering overnight but any additional accumulations expected to be less than an inch.
Backing low level flow later tonight/early Wed will send the flurries back inland and areas which have cleared out near/east of Highway 131 should eventually cloud back over. That clearing has resulted in temps already falling into the single digits at several locations so tonight's min temps will need adjusted to account for that.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 313 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
- Snow showers to taper off later tonight and Wednesday
We will be holding on to the headlines as is for this afternoon, after dropping the rest of the eastern counties earlier this afternoon.
The passage of the upper short wave and associated sfc trough earlier today has set up the area now with a flow from the NW. This is focusing the snow showers across the SW and NW sections of the forecast area, with just a few light snow showers inland. The passage of the upper trough earlier also has tempered the snow showers a bit as inversion heights and moisture depth has dropped to around 5k ft, down from 10k+ ft from earlier.
We are expecting an uptick in the snow showers this evening and early overnight for the favored NW flow areas. This will be the result of additional short wave activity that will be approaching from the NW tonight. Inversion heights and moisture is expected to increase a bit. This is likely to bring another 2-5 inches for those favored areas through 06z. After 06z, the short wave energy passes, and the low level flow becomes more westerly. This will tend to spread the snow showers out a bit as they move inland.
The upper flow then transitions to more anti-cyclonic flow on Wednesday as the trough moves out and short wave ridging builds in.
This should help the snow showers almost completely dissipate in the afternoon.
- Light snow Wednesday night/Thursday then mild through Saturday
The break in the snow activity will be short lived, as light snow will spread back in over most of the area Wednesday night. Another short wave dives into the region from the NW. A bit of warm and moist advection takes place ahead of this wave, providing the light snow. This snow looks like it would be mainly an inch or so by itself. The low level flow from the SW, and 925-850 mb temps of -10 to -11C will provide enough of a boost to increase forecast snow amounts to 3 inches or so along the lakeshore north of Grand Haven.
The majority of this snow will happen between 00z and 18z Thursday.
This is when the best lift and moisture is in place. The snow is expected to lighten up Thursday afternoon, and may transition to more drizzle/freezing drizzle as the deeper moisture is lost, and the DGZ becomes unsaturated. Temperatures for most of the area should surge into the mid 30s. Some locations could see temps stay around freezing and cause some issues.
We should be dry for most of Friday with another mild day with highs in the 30s once again. Low level moisture looks to be fairly plentiful, but some clearing looks possible across the southern portion of the forecast area.
A cold front then drops in from the NW later Friday night, bringing the leading edge of colder air into the area. This front will initially be quite dry, but it will be starting to draw moisture out of the Gulf with a long southerly fetch ahead of the front. We may see the precipitation starting out as a rain and/or snow mix as it will initially be warm enough. Any lingering precipitation on Saturday will change over to light snow showers before ending.
- Arctic air and lake effect snow showers first half of next week
Once the leading edge of the cold arrives on Saturday, the cold air will just continue to flood in across the region. The upper air pattern will see a long wave trough become established over the eastern 3/4's of North America.
The flow with the upper trough and in the lower levels will feature a long trajectory from across the North Pole. This flow will bring -25C air at 850 mb over the area for next Monday and Tuesday. This will support highs in the single digits, and plenty of lake effect snow showers. The lake effect will be of the small flake size with the DGZ being quite limited by the arctic air, so it will not accumulate significantly. It is likely to cause impacts with reduced visibility and roads staying slick.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 631 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Radar shows light shsn moving south along the lake shore. A few of these snow showers may clip MKG. However, inland terminals are clear to scattered VFR.
As winds become more westerly overnight, look for some lake stratocu and the occasional snow shower to move inland, creating an MVFR deck after 06z. Once the snow showers finally end mid morning, we'll see ceilings rise to VFR after 18z.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 23 mi | 52 min | E 5.1G | 18°F | 32°F | 30.32 | 15°F | |
| MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI | 31 mi | 52 min | NW 18G | 23°F | 30.38 | 16°F |
Wind History for Holland, MI
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBIV
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBIV
Wind History Graph: BIV
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes
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Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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