Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 9:24PM Sunday July 12, 2020 1:56 AM EDT (05:56 UTC) Moonrise 12:17AMMoonset 12:46PM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Expires:202007120930;;706808 Fzus63 Kmkx 120154 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 854 Pm Cdt Sat Jul 11 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure of 29.8 inches will cross southern lake michigan tonight. Winds will transition to northerly behind the low overnight. The northerly winds will be breezy on Sunday. Lighter winds will develop Monday as high pressure of 30.0 inches moves overhead. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-120930- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 854 pm cdt Sat jul 11 2020 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 kt veering to west 10 to 20 kt after midnight, then veering to north late. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt veering to southeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 kt backing to southwest. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ874


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 120532 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 132 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

- Upper disturbance brushes Southern Great Lakes tonight/Sunday with some rain showers

- Dry from Sunday afternoon into Tuesday night

- Showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday into Thursday

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

-- Upper disturbance brushes Southern Great Lakes tonight/Sunday with some rain showers --

An upper shortwave can be seen dropping southeast towards our area from Minnesota this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are currently associated with the shortwave. Models are fairly consistent in showing the bulk of the precipitation missing our area to the south. We have very small chances (20/30 pct) for a shower or storm overnight and into Sunday along and south of I-94.

-- Dry from Sunday afternoon into Tuesday night --

A period of dry weather settles back into the area for Sunday through Tuesday night. High pressure will be in place the bulk of the time with a lack of deep moisture.

-- Showers and Thunderstorms from Wednesday into Thursday --

Our next better chance for precipitation will come mid next week as a cold front is forecast to move through the region. A round of showers and thunderstorm will likely accompany the frontal passage. 850mb LIs drop to -3C or so, therefore thunderstorms are in the forecast. PWAT values in the GFS rise to around 2 inches which will be high enough for locally heavy rain. The GFS and ECWMF ensembles show 0.50 to 1.00 inch looks very plausible.

Beyond Thursday there are model disparities. The GFS shows a bit more in the way of a trough lingering into the end of the week, whereas the ECMWF is more zonal. Our model blend is hanging on to small pops through the end of the week and into Saturday, but given the time of year the drier more zonal look of the ECMWF is probably more likely.

Temperatures to start the work week will be very comfortable and near normal. Heat and humidity will build into midweek ahead of the cold front. We should see 80s for highs all of this week.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 127 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

VFR expected through the period. Short range models do show an extensive area of mid clouds with cigs around 12k ft moving south this afternoon over the eastern terminals so that was included in the TAFS.

MARINE. Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Northwest flow will weaken this evening as low pressure moves off to the east. Waves of around 2 feet will be possible this evening. Focus shifts to a north flow wind and wave event on Sunday.

The setup for Sunday is one of our typical summer wave event regimes. It involves an advancing high pressure area out of the Plains States that channels/funnels a north wind down the length of the lake especially along our shoreline. North winds over 20 knots are expected on Sunday which should push waves into the 3 to 6 foot range. The highest waves will be found south of Holland during the evening.

A Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement have been issued for our entire lakeshore. The headlines begin up near Big and Little Sable Point at 800am Sunday and from Whitehall to the south at noon. The headlines end up north 11pm and in the south at 400am.

The juxtaposition of fairly good weather, waves of the height that produce the most drownings (3-6ft) and a Jul/Aug weekend make Sunday a concern. Folks are urged to stay dry when waves are high and steer clear of the pier! North sides of north piers will be dangerous places to swim.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Beach Hazards Statement from noon EDT today through late tonight for MIZ050-056-064-071.

Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ037-043.

LM . Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for LMZ848-849.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EDT Monday for LMZ844>847.



SYNOPSIS . Duke DISCUSSION . Duke AVIATION . 04 MARINE . Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45029 19 mi27 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 72°F 72°F1 ft1008.3 hPa68°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi57 min E 4.1 G 4.1 71°F 60°F1008.4 hPa (-0.9)70°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi67 min Calm G 0 73°F 1008.6 hPa69°F
45168 34 mi27 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 74°F 77°F1 ft1008.5 hPa67°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi77 min ESE 6 G 6 73°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi57 min SSE 1 G 2.9 74°F 1009.8 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair70°F64°F84%1008.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIV

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W56W7W6
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W10NW9W9W6W6W3CalmSW3CalmCalm
1 day agoSE6N9S6SE7SE9SE7S8S5SW4W5W11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3S4CalmSE3S54SW9W65W11W8W6W6E5E8E6E5E8E7SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.