Sunrise 6:44 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 9:57 PM   Moonset 6:21 AM

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LMZ874 Expires:202404260315;;364347 Fzus63 Kmkx 251959 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 259 pm cdt Thu apr 25 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
light winds continue into this evening as high pressure of 30.4 inches remains in place over the northern great lakes region. As this high exits eastward and low pressure of 29.3 inches develops in the central great plains overnight, southeast winds will begin to increase. As low pressure approaches minnesota Friday into Friday night, expect southeasterly winds to continue to increase, with some gusts approaching gales possible Friday night into Saturday. Another low pressure system around 29.5 inches will move northeast across the great lakes region Sunday into Monday, which will bring gusty southerly winds to the southern half of the lake and northeasterly winds to the northern half.
showers and Thunderstorms are possible Friday night through Sunday night, with the best chances for Thunderstorms Friday night, Saturday afternoon and night, and Sunday afternoon and night.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-260315- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 259 pm cdt Thu apr 25 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Friday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Friday night - Southeast winds to 30 kt becoming south. Showers in the evening, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft. Saturday - South winds to 30 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft. Saturday night - South winds to 30 kt. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft. Sunday - South winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Sunday night - South winds to 30 kt. Showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Monday - South winds to 30 kt. Showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft. Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 251943 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 343 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Another Cold Night

- Showers and Thunderstorms Arrive Friday Night

- Warmer with Rounds of Showers and Storms Saturday into Monday

DISCUSSION
Issued at 343 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

- Another Cold Night

We have issued a Freeze Warning for interior sections and a Frost Advisory for the counties bordering Lake Michigan for tonight. The airmass will be modified a bit from last night and return flow begins late tonight as the surface ridge begins to move east, but model soundings still show an very dry airmass through 12Z Friday with precipitable water down near 0.15 inches. This should allow temperatures to drop quickly like last night. There could be some wind picking up by 12Z...but we still expect temperatures to drop to around 30 in the warning area and lower 30s in the advisory.

- Showers and Thunderstorms Arrive Friday Night

Return flow increases Friday but it will take a while to moisten the column of the very dry atmosphere and showers will probably hold off until Friday evening although clouds will be in the increase in the afternoon with isolated showers possible across the southwest zones late in the day.

A large area of isentropic ascent and strong warm advection pattern combine with the arrival of deep moisture to bring increasing chances for rain Friday night and elevated instability should be enough for isolated thunder and some heavier downpours late Friday night. We will keep the categorical POPs across the northwest half of the forecast area where the axis of deeper moisture and lift will be.

- Warmer with Rounds of Showers and Storms Saturday into Monday

Low confidence at present in convective trends for Later Saturday Afternoon and Evening. A conditionally favorable environment for organized convection will be present given MUCAPE values of over 1000 J/kg as moisture climbs in strong SW flow, and deep layer shear values climbing to 35-45 knots given the low and mid-level jets in place. However, this is contingent on storms being able to develop which is in question given weak to no forcing in place given the frontal boundary and shortwave remain to our west. If storms can develop, organized convection is possible which is covered by the current SPC marginal to slight risk across the CWA It will be breezy however with NBM probs of 90+ percent for gusts over 30 mph for much of the area and 10-20 percent for 40+ mph, with warm air advection somewhat limiting gust potential. NBM 20-30 percent precip chances seem reasonable later Saturday.

As the warm front sits to out north Sunday a second round of showers and storms is expected across Central Lower, especially in the northwest CWA towards Ludington aided by a shortwave to our northwest and the right entrance region of the upper-level jet.
Given CAPE values north of 1000 J/kg thunder is likely and deep layer shear is still decent so Sunday will need to be watched too.

Showers then expand across the CWA Sunday Night into Monday as the cold front drifts south before clearing the area Monday evening.
CAPE values on the ECMWF and GFS still look to be above 500 J/kg so thunder continues to be possible.

Dry conditions for Tuesday as a period of surface ridging drifts over the area before chances increase for showers increase Wednesday/Thursday as a shortwave drives through before a trough passes overhead.

850mb temperatures climb into the teens this weekend into early next week causing temperatures to climb into the 70s with low (around 10 percent) chances that areas exceed 80 degrees. Highs will be well into the 70s, which is over 10 degrees above normal, through at least Tuesday making it feel like summer.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Clear skies today into tonight before some cirrus above 30000 ft arrives overnight.
Some cirrus around 25000 ft arrives near the lakeshore near the end of the TAF window. East-southeast winds under 10 knots expected into tomorrow morning with the exception of MKG where a lake breeze will keep winds westerly through the evening before switching to ESE. Southeast winds increase to near 12 knots tomorrow with gusts around 20 knots possible at MKG.

MARINE
Issued at 343 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Winds will increase on Friday and Friday night. A SCA may be needed by late Friday afternoon or evening continuing into early next week as a persistent pressure gradient keeps southwest winds elevated and waves building over 4 feet to as high as 8 feet north of Pentwater.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for MIZ043-050-056- 064-071-072.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for MIZ044>046-051- 052-057>059-065>067-073-074.
MARINE...None.

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