Monday, January27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:02AMSunset 5:51PM Monday January 27, 2020 9:53 AM EST (14:53 UTC) Moonrise 9:55AMMoonset 8:41PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Expires:202001271615;;584698 Fzus63 Kmkx 270856 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 256 Am Cst Mon Jan 27 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. North to northwest winds continue through Tuesday before shifting northeasterly Tuesday night. High pressure of 30.3 inches will gradually move from manitoba to quebec into the middle of the week. Light winds and low wave heights are expected. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-271615- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 256 am cst Mon jan 27 2020 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Today..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest. Slight chance of drizzle, light freezing drizzle and snow this morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of drizzle, snow and slight chance of light freezing drizzle in the evening, then chance of snow, drizzle and slight chance of light freezing drizzle overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north. Chance of drizzle in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt diminishing to less than 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 kt backing to west. Waves nearly calm.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ874


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 271128 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 628 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

- Mainly dry weather expected early to mid week

- Chances for some precipitation late in the week

- Temperatures near to above normal the next 7 days

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

-- Mainly dry weather expected early to mid week --

Very little in the way of chances for precipitation as we head into the middle of the week. Could see a few stray snow showers or areas of drizzle from today into Tuesday, but not much more than that. The main story will be the continuing gray skies as low level moisture looks to hang on. NAM BUFKIT overviews show low clouds hanging on all the way into Thursday. High pressure mid week should insure dry weather then.

-- Chances for some precipitation late in the week --

Chances increase for some snow showers as we head into Thursday night and Friday as an upstream trof moves in from the upper midwest. Precipitation looks to be light. Best chances for precipitation will be Friday into Saturday. Our precipitation chances increase to 40/50 percent during this time frame. The bottom line is no significant weather in the 7 day forecast.

-- Temperatures near to above normal the next 7 days --

Normal highs and lows this time of year are around 30 and 18. We will see temperatures start the week near these values and gradually rise as we head into the latter portions of the week and the upcoming weekend. By next Sunday we have some 40s back for highs and lows in the 30s. What snow pack we have will continue to dwindle.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 624 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

Not much change expected during the period. Mainly expecting cigs around 1500 feet. However, there may be a few hours this morning where skies clear for a breif period. Latest satellite loop shows various holes in the cloud cover across Lower Michigan.

MARINE. Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

Overall, a very quiet week out on the Big Lake by January standards. NAM BUFKIT overviews show northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots from today into Tuesday. Beyond that, GFS overviews show very little wind as high pressure settles in. We are looking at 1-3 footers today into Tuesday, subsiding to waves of a foot or less for Wednesday into at least Thursday.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

Precipitation on the order of 0.20 to near 0.50 over the last few days along with snowmelt is producing some river rises across the area. Rivers were already high before the precip/snowmelt. The USGS realtime streamflow page is showing almost all rivers in the 90th percentile or above for the current flow. Rivers are not expected to reach flood stage in the coming days, but within bank rises are occurring as well as a few sites that are out of bank (but not reaching flood stage).

The one site we will be keeping an eye on as it will rise to near flood stage is the Maple at Maple Rapids. For now we are forecasting it to crest just below flood stage. It is a good thing we have a quiet weather week with little in the way of additional precipitation as snowmelt will continue to work into the river systems.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . Duke DISCUSSION . Duke AVIATION . 04 HYDROLOGY . Duke MARINE . Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi59 min 34°F 33°F1012.3 hPa32°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi33 min N 8 G 12 33°F 1014.7 hPa30°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi43 min N 11 G 12 35°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi53 min Calm G 1.9 33°F 1013.2 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi60 minNW 510.00 miOvercast33°F28°F85%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIV

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W8W8W8W9W8W9W7W5NW5W4NW5W3NW5NW3NW4NW4N4N4N5NW4N5N6NW5
1 day agoS9S7S6S7S6S5W6W6W6W7W4W4W6W6W7W8W8W7W8W9W9W9W9W9
2 days agoE8E8E8E9E6E5E7E6E6E5E6SE3E3S3S3S4S5S5SW8SW10S7S7S5S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.