Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:57AMSunset 7:02PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 7:40 AM EDT (11:40 UTC) Moonrise 7:53PMMoonset 9:34AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Expires:201910161530;;782845 Fzus63 Kmkx 160759 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 259 Am Cdt Wed Oct 16 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Strengthening low pressure will deepen to 29.5 inches as it moves east into the eastern great lakes region today. Gusty west to northwest winds are expected during this period, with gale force gusts of 40 to 45 knots at times. Wind speeds will diminish by later tonight into Thursday, as weak high pressure of 30.0 inches moves from southern minnesota into wisconsin. The lighter winds should linger into Friday morning, before gusty south to southeast winds develop Friday afternoon and evening, becoming south to southwest on Saturday. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-161530- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 259 am cdt Wed oct 16 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Today..Northwest gales to 40 kt. Chance of showers this morning, then slight chance of showers this afternoon. Waves 14 to 18 ft occasionally to 23 ft.
Tonight..Northwest gales to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 12 to 16 ft occasionally to 21 ft subsiding to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest. Chance of showers. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ874


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 161120
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
720 am edt Wed oct 16 2019
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 317 am edt Wed oct 16 2019
- significant beach and dune erosion with strong wind gusts more
than 45 mph are expected along the lakeshore today. Inland gusts
to 40 mph are expected.

- lake effect rain showers are expected Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday especially west of us-131.

- frost is possible away from the lakeshore Thursday night.

- after a warm up this weekend, the active pattern will continue
into next week.

Discussion (today through next Tuesday)
issued at 317 am edt Wed oct 16 2019
a rather gnarly Wednesday is shaping up for most of western lower
michigan and especially the lakeshore. Regional water vapor imagery
depicts a low pressure system over northern lake michigan with
several embedded "curls" across wisconsin and a cold front extending
across eastern michigan. Indeed several mesolows can be seen via
radar imagery from kgrb, the largest strongest of which just east of
the door peninsula over the warm lake michigan waters with regional
observations confirming compact confluent cyclonic wind flow from
the leelanau peninsula to manistique and manitowoc. High resolution
cams have a great handle on the existence and current location of
the strongest mesolow and overall environmental regime leveraging
high confidence in the forecast over the next 12-24 hours.

The inherited forecast is in great shape with no changes to
headlines needed. As a secondary cold front swings into lower
michigan between 5 and 8 am this morning, winds will increase
abruptly from the northwest and persist through the afternoon hours.

The strongest wind gusts will be along the lakeshore where the ecmwf
ensemble continues to ubiquitously show 45-50 mph peak wind gusts
from ludington to south haven and a 30% probability for a wind gust
over 50 kts 57 mph. The strongest winds will likely be confined to
the southwestern side of the aforementioned mesolow or any
additional circulations that can develop as the front crashes
through, with the door peninsula circulation seemingly taking aim at
the points. A rumble of thunder is even possible this morning with
non-negligible MUCAPE and strong dynamic forcing. The combination of
elevated lake levels and strong winds will lead to significant beach
and dune erosion (see more in the marine section below). Inland,
wind gusts of 30-40 mph are expected. Lake effect rain showers
will increase as the day progresses especially west of us-131 in
the northwest wind belts.

Winds will decrease toward sunset, though lake effect clouds and
scattered showers will likely persist through Thursday (the latter
mainly west of us-131). Clouds should start to break up Thursday
night as an upper-level ridge builds into the region, potentially
giving way to a cold and frosty night especially away from the
lakeshore. Temperatures this weekend are poised to warm into the 60s
as southwesterly flow becomes reestablished. Scattered showers are
possible Sunday as a weak shortwave trough swings through the area,
but overall coverage and precip amounts both look low. Forecast
ensemble model guidance continues to exhibit a signal for another
fall storm early next week, though the solution space remains large.

Another round of gusty winds along the lakeshore and lake effect
clouds seems like a good bet at some point given the most recent
ecmwf ensemble probabilities of a sub-1000 mb low and 850 mb
temperatures below 0 c are both greater than 50%.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 708 am edt Wed oct 16 2019
low CIGS are expected especially this morning with some ifr or
near-ifr conditions as rain showers become scattered about the
region. Wind gusts may reach or exceed 40 knots at mkg today
making for some adverse conditions at the terminal. Elsewhere we
are expecting around 30 knot wind gusts. Conditions should slowly
improve toward sunset but breezy conditions will remain.

Marine
Issued at 317 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Significant beach and dune erosion expected today...

northwesterly gales of 35-40 kts will develop rapidly toward sunrise
and persist through the afternoon hours. Locally stronger wind gusts
to 50 kts are possible with mesolow circulations, especially near
the points. Even though the duration of the strongest winds will be
relatively short (e.G. 12 hours), waves will build to 10-15' given a
long northwesterly fetch aimed right at a zone from muskegon to
south haven. The combination of strong winds, above average lake
michigan water levels (~3 feet above normal), and "push" of water
into the western lake michigan shore today will creates some of
the worst conditions observed in many years. Significant beach
and dune erosion is all but certain from the points southward,
especially between 10 am and 4 pm. Minor inundation of river
mouths and channels, parks, and roadways along the lakeshore is
likely as well. Stay away from the beach, piers, and lakeshore
parks today as conditions will be dangerous! No changes to the
lakeshore flood or gale warnings are necessary.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood warning until 10 pm edt this evening for miz037-
043-050-056-064-071.

Wind advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for miz037-043-050-
056-064-071.

Lm... Gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Borchardt
discussion... Borchardt
aviation... Hoving
marine... Borchardt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45029 19 mi30 min NW 23 G 35 50°F 58°F8 ft1005 hPa43°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi58 min WNW 26 G 31 47°F 1004.7 hPa45°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 24 mi40 min NW 27 G 33
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi30 min NNW 36 G 40 49°F 1004.8 hPa45°F
45168 34 mi30 min WNW 23 G 27 48°F 59°F7 ft1006.9 hPa41°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi40 min W 29 G 34 47°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi40 min WNW 21 G 26 47°F 1008.1 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi47 minWNW 12 G 224.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist45°F44°F97%1005.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIV

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE5S9SE11
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1 day agoNW7W6W8W11
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W12W7SW4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS3S4SE3SE3S5SE5SE5
2 days agoW15SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.