Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crystal Beach, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure nosing across our region from the Ohio valley will support fair weather for most areas today
however
a cold northwest flow in the wake of last nights cold frontal passage will maintain accumulating lake snows southeast of both lakes. This will especially be true southeast of Lake Ontario where additional daytime accumulations could exceed five inches near the lake shore.

Otherwise it will be cold throughout the region today with highs remaining well below normal...generally ranging from the teens across the western Southern Tier to the low and mid 20s elsewhere.

A closer look at both areas of lake effect...

Off Lake Erie...

A 300 flow over a largely ice covered lake will generate some light snow across parts of the Southern Tier...mainly west of a line from Warsaw to Little valley to Jamestown. Winds of 15 knots at cloud level will limit the inland extent of the higher accumulations...
while a cap around 5kft will combine with the aforementioned ice coverage to limit the lake response
During the course of the day
the steering flow will back to 250-260 degrees...and this will encourage the more widespread snow showers to become a little better organized over southern Erie county and the Chautauqua county lake shore.

Tonight...winds will continue to back to about 230 degrees. While this will push the residual lake snows northwards across the BUF metro area...a lowering cap from 5kft will essentially squash the lake induced convection to only allow for light snow showers and flurries. Fresh accumulations will be under an inch.

Off Lake Ontario...

Much more organized lake snows will be in place today...at least this morning...as a 300 flow beneath an 8kft cap will direct a band of moderately heavy lake snow across the northeast corner of Wayne county across northern Cayuga county to southernmost Oswego county.
This band will include rates of an inch an hour of fluffy 25:1 snow that could accumulate a general 2 to 4 inches in the aforementioned areas. Its not out of the question that higher amounts could be found near the lake.

While the lake snows should become somewhat disorganized during the midday and early afternoon...this trend should change later in the day...as the flow will back to around 280 degrees. This will push an increasingly organized band back across southern Oswego county during the evening commute.

As we progress through tonight...a continuing backing of the winds will further push the lake snows northwards across the Tug Hill.
Another 2 to as much as 6 inches of snow is forecast with the higher amounts being found closer to the lake. Winds will become very light by daybreak Saturday as the steering flow will become too southerly to support an organized lake response.

The aforementioned sfc high will exit across New England on Saturday...while a supporting mid level shortwave ridge will pass over our forecast area. This should promote fair dry weather to start the day
but as move through the afternoon
an approaching warm front could generate scattered inconsequential snow showers.
While it will become too warm aloft (-10c) to support true lake induced convection...some lake enhancement could still help to make the snow showers more widespread to the east of both lakes.

It will be less cold Saturday with the mercury tickling 30 for some sites across the lake plains and in the Genesee valley.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Moving into the back half of the weekend...Longwave troughing will gradually shift east across Ontario and Quebec, with fast zonal flow aloft across the Lower Great Lakes which will be situated at the base of this trough. At the surface, a broad wave of low pressure embedded within the trough will send a weak cold front through the forecast area Saturday night. This will bring some scattered snow shower activity to the region overnight, though a brief period of weak WAA ahead of the front will lead to 850H temps just a tad too warm at around -11/-12C to support a more vigorous lake response early on. This will change as CAA in the wake of the front drops these values a few degrees later Saturday night into Sunday, though resulting snowfall will look vastly different off both lakes.

Off Lake Ontario...Chances for snow showers will increase east- northeast of the lake through Saturday night as a wave of deeper synoptic moisture clips the North Country, aided by some weak SW flow lake enhancement and orographic lift on slopes of the Tug/Western Dacks. Intensity of these snows is expected to be on the lighter side through the first half of the night as BUFKIT profiles indicate a weak inversion cutting into the DGZ. A more substantiative lake effect band is expected to develop sometime later Saturday night into Sunday morning and drift southward as a mid-level trough axis pivots across the lake, accompanied by longer fetch as 240 degree SW flow veers to 260/270 and 850H temps dip to around -14C. This would place the heaviest snowfall south of Watertown across the Tug Hill Plateau, where there could be localized accumulations of 7-12". Confidence in the potential for these higher end totals is still low given the very marginal 850H temperatures early on the event. The band will then weaken later Sunday drift back north Sunday night, possibly bring some additional light snow to the Watertown Metro.

Off Lake Erie...Several mitigating factors at play here should greatly limit the potential for more impactful snowfall this period.
Namely, shallower moisture profiles, marginally warmer 850H temps, and ice covering over 80% of the lake. Upslope enhancement will play more of a role in causing totals to be slightly higher across the higher terrain east of the lake, though generally only a few inches at most of accumulation is expected in this area through Sunday. Much of this is expected to fall between late Saturday night and Sunday morning. There is a low chance that some very weak lake enhanced snows manage to survive as the flow turns SW'erly again Sunday night, which could direct some very minor snowfall towards the Buffalo Metro before completely dissipating.

Outside the potential for snow, a tightening pressure gradient across the region will bring increasingly brisk winds late Sunday night, especially northeast of the lakes where gusts over 30mph are expected.

For temperatures...Highs on Sunday will generally range from the mid/upper 20s across WNY and the higher terrain of the North Country, to the low 30s across the Genesee Valley, Finger Lakes, and Lake Plains east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures should follow a non- diurnal trend Saturday night ahead of the front, rising through the first half of the night before falling into the 20s by sunrise.
Turning colder for Sunday night with lows in the teens for most areas, though with the increasing winds, wind chills will be in the single digits to near zero.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A broad longwave trough initially centered over Hudson Bay to start this period will dig southward as it pivots to Northern Quebec by Monday night. An intensifying area of surface low pressure just south of this trough's center will move across James Bay in tandem.
Long range guidance continues to show that this system will drive a strong LLJ across the eastern Great Lakes, which could lead to a period of brisk to strong winds around Monday afternoon. Still some forecast challenges here as climatologically this is not a 'classic' setup for a high wind event across our forecast area, and the temp advection regime around the arrival time of the LLJ is weak to neutral. Still, NBM probabilities (which are typically low biased)
at this range are showing >70% chances for gusts exceeding 40mph across the Niagara Frontier. Winds should slowly subside later Monday night as a weak cold front moves into the region, which will bring increased chances for snow.

Vigorous shortwave energy is then expected to quickly dive southeast out of central Canada on the backside of the longwave trough Tuesday which will drive an arctic cold front across the Great Lakes sometime later in the week. While the general pattern shift from near normal back towards colder temperatures is becoming clearer, there much higher uncertainty in the nature of this next system as models are exhibiting large variability particularly in regards to timing. Will maintain chances for snow in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday at this juncture, with the greater probabilities in the typical areas east/southeast of the lakes until the details come into better focus.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Cigs of 2500-3500 ft will be found at most of the TAF sites today.
The big exceptions will be southeast of the lakes where lake snows will persist...producing vsbys of 1-3SM and cigs of 1500-2500 ft.
Fortunately...the most significant impacts from these snows will not be found at any of the TAF sites.

VFR conditions will then dominate the region tonight...although lake snows east of Lake Erie will push back through the BUF metro area with vsbys of 2-4SM and MVFR cigs.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR/MVFR during the day, then another round of lake enhanced snow east/northeast of the lakes Saturday night with local IFR/LIFR.
Sunday...Lake effect snow mainly east of Lake Ontario with local IFR/LIFR. MVFR/VFR elsewhere.
Monday...Local IFR in lake enhanced snow east of Lake Ontario, VFR/MVFR elsewhere. Windy.
Tuesday...IFR with snow likely. Windy.

MARINE
High pressure centered over the Ohio valley will nose across the Lower Great Lakes today. This will allow winds to subside a bit with moderate westerlies found on Lake Erie and northwesterlies on Lake Ontario. Small craft advisories will expire as scheduled.

Moderate southwesterlies will be in place tonight...as the sfc high will move across the region.

As this features exits across New england on Saturday...freshening south to southwest winds will be found over the region. This will likely lead to a new round of small craft advisories...mainly for the eastern portion of Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ004- 005.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ006.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ043- 044.