Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crystal Beach, NY
May 16, 2024 10:38 PM EDT (02:38 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:43 AM Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 12:41 PM Moonset 1:51 AM |
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1028 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Rest of today - Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming north. Areas of fog late this morning. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 50 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 50 degrees.
LOZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 170235 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1035 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A poorly organized cold front will bring more coverage area to showers for the Lower Great Lakes region Friday and Friday night, with a few rumbles of thunder also possible. Showers may linger Saturday before drier air builds in from the north and returns partly sunny skies.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/
The next system will be approaching our region overnight. Winds will veer to southeasterly through the night. Just a 20 knot LLJ so downslope wind gusts will be minor. While the cold front with this next system is ill defined at times, looking in the mid levels a distinct 700/500 hPa shortwave trough will carry northeastward from the Ohio Valley. Increase in moisture and lift ahead of this shortwave will bring rain showers to our doorsteps tomorrow morning.
As this shortwave passes across our region tomorrow a band of showers and embedded thunder will move from west to east across our region. Better instability remains across WNY, but better lapse rates quickly move towards the east. Will carry a chance for thunderstorms, with likely convection across WNY tomorrow moving into the eastern Lake Ontario region tomorrow evening. As daytime instability wanes, the threat for thunder will also diminish, though lingering troughiness aloft will maintain chances for showers through the entire night.
Basin average rainfall Friday and Friday night will average a tenth to a third of an inch. Any thunderstorm or heavier shower does have the potential for localized higher amounts.
Lows tomorrow night will be a few degrees higher than tonight...due to the southerly flow firmly entrenched for our region, and lingering cloudiness. Highs on Friday will remain above normal in the low to mid 70s.
SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A mid level ridge will begin to increase in strength on Saturday, but before it does, a few showers are likely to linger behind the recent passage of a mid level shortwave, especially towards the State line. A few hundred J/KG of MUCAPE across SW NYS will aid in shower formation.
If clearing of the sky over Lake Ontario develops, and a lake breeze boundary forms, could also see a few showers forming south of the Lake, in convergence with a general light southeast synoptic flow.
Drier airmass from the north will bring partial clearing through the afternoon. This drying trend from the north will bring a dry night Saturday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A low pressure system will start this period near the Carolina coastline, with an upper level ridge building northeastward across our region. Subsidence from this ridge should keep the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe dry, with perhaps just an isolated shower on a lake breeze boundary.
The southwesterly flow will steadily increase temperatures aloft at 850 hPa, such that at the surface most areas will see day to day warming of a degree or two. Could see a fair amount of temperatures in the low to mid 80s in the traditional warmer spots of our region before clouds begin to thicken ahead of the next system Tuesday.
A more vigorous shortwave trough will drop across the Plains Tuesday. The 12Z deterministic models display a fair amount of agreement with this shortwave, with a line of showers and thunderstorms passing across our region Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and GFS bring a decent LLJ near our region, which depending upon timing of the cold front, could allow for taller updrafts and potential gustier winds at the surface.
Will keep Tuesday night on the warm side of guidance with the southerly flow and increasing clouds. Could see a few temperatures in the upper 70s again east of Lake Ontario before the cold front passage Wednesday.
Cooler behind the front Thursday. A trailing secondary trough may bring a shower or two to areas east of Lake Ontario Thursday, otherwise WNY should be dry with dewpoints returning back into the 50s.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Dewpoints will be a tad lower tonight, and even though light flow, fog should not be as widespread as the previous night or two. Will have a little valley fog, that may near KJHW...otherwise mainly VFR tonight.
Friday...a weak cold front, and mid level shortwave will near the region. MVFR ceiling heights in the Southern Tier Friday morning will spread north and eastward through the day across WNY. Showers will near KJHW/KBUF and KIAG between 15Z and 18Z...slowly working their way eastward through the day. Weak flow aloft will keep wind gusts to a minimum.
Outlook...
Friday night...A chance for showers, with patches of fog around.
Saturday...Areas of MVFR with a chance for showers.
Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. An isolated shower Tuesday on Lake Erie lake breeze.
MARINE
A weak pressure gradient will continue general light winds through the remainder of the work week. A mainly offshore, southeast, flow will develop tonight and increase a little on Friday as a weak cold front crosses the Lake. Following the passage of the weak cold front winds are not expected to increase much, and in fact remain light through Tuesday morning. The next system of note will be a cold front Wednesday, one that has a bit more structure, and a deeper surface low...with the increasing pressure gradient likely to bring a bit more wind and waves to the Lakes.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1035 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A poorly organized cold front will bring more coverage area to showers for the Lower Great Lakes region Friday and Friday night, with a few rumbles of thunder also possible. Showers may linger Saturday before drier air builds in from the north and returns partly sunny skies.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/
The next system will be approaching our region overnight. Winds will veer to southeasterly through the night. Just a 20 knot LLJ so downslope wind gusts will be minor. While the cold front with this next system is ill defined at times, looking in the mid levels a distinct 700/500 hPa shortwave trough will carry northeastward from the Ohio Valley. Increase in moisture and lift ahead of this shortwave will bring rain showers to our doorsteps tomorrow morning.
As this shortwave passes across our region tomorrow a band of showers and embedded thunder will move from west to east across our region. Better instability remains across WNY, but better lapse rates quickly move towards the east. Will carry a chance for thunderstorms, with likely convection across WNY tomorrow moving into the eastern Lake Ontario region tomorrow evening. As daytime instability wanes, the threat for thunder will also diminish, though lingering troughiness aloft will maintain chances for showers through the entire night.
Basin average rainfall Friday and Friday night will average a tenth to a third of an inch. Any thunderstorm or heavier shower does have the potential for localized higher amounts.
Lows tomorrow night will be a few degrees higher than tonight...due to the southerly flow firmly entrenched for our region, and lingering cloudiness. Highs on Friday will remain above normal in the low to mid 70s.
SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A mid level ridge will begin to increase in strength on Saturday, but before it does, a few showers are likely to linger behind the recent passage of a mid level shortwave, especially towards the State line. A few hundred J/KG of MUCAPE across SW NYS will aid in shower formation.
If clearing of the sky over Lake Ontario develops, and a lake breeze boundary forms, could also see a few showers forming south of the Lake, in convergence with a general light southeast synoptic flow.
Drier airmass from the north will bring partial clearing through the afternoon. This drying trend from the north will bring a dry night Saturday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A low pressure system will start this period near the Carolina coastline, with an upper level ridge building northeastward across our region. Subsidence from this ridge should keep the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe dry, with perhaps just an isolated shower on a lake breeze boundary.
The southwesterly flow will steadily increase temperatures aloft at 850 hPa, such that at the surface most areas will see day to day warming of a degree or two. Could see a fair amount of temperatures in the low to mid 80s in the traditional warmer spots of our region before clouds begin to thicken ahead of the next system Tuesday.
A more vigorous shortwave trough will drop across the Plains Tuesday. The 12Z deterministic models display a fair amount of agreement with this shortwave, with a line of showers and thunderstorms passing across our region Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and GFS bring a decent LLJ near our region, which depending upon timing of the cold front, could allow for taller updrafts and potential gustier winds at the surface.
Will keep Tuesday night on the warm side of guidance with the southerly flow and increasing clouds. Could see a few temperatures in the upper 70s again east of Lake Ontario before the cold front passage Wednesday.
Cooler behind the front Thursday. A trailing secondary trough may bring a shower or two to areas east of Lake Ontario Thursday, otherwise WNY should be dry with dewpoints returning back into the 50s.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Dewpoints will be a tad lower tonight, and even though light flow, fog should not be as widespread as the previous night or two. Will have a little valley fog, that may near KJHW...otherwise mainly VFR tonight.
Friday...a weak cold front, and mid level shortwave will near the region. MVFR ceiling heights in the Southern Tier Friday morning will spread north and eastward through the day across WNY. Showers will near KJHW/KBUF and KIAG between 15Z and 18Z...slowly working their way eastward through the day. Weak flow aloft will keep wind gusts to a minimum.
Outlook...
Friday night...A chance for showers, with patches of fog around.
Saturday...Areas of MVFR with a chance for showers.
Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. An isolated shower Tuesday on Lake Erie lake breeze.
MARINE
A weak pressure gradient will continue general light winds through the remainder of the work week. A mainly offshore, southeast, flow will develop tonight and increase a little on Friday as a weak cold front crosses the Lake. Following the passage of the weak cold front winds are not expected to increase much, and in fact remain light through Tuesday morning. The next system of note will be a cold front Wednesday, one that has a bit more structure, and a deeper surface low...with the increasing pressure gradient likely to bring a bit more wind and waves to the Lakes.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 34 mi | 38 min | ESE 2.9G | 59°F | 29.91 | |||
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 35 mi | 50 min | 58°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KIUA CANANDAIGUA,NY | 6 sm | 3 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 55°F | 94% | 29.90 | |
| KPEO PENN YAN,NY | 18 sm | 45 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 63°F | 57°F | 83% | 29.91 |
Binghamton, NY,
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