Lake Fenton, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Fenton, MI

June 17, 2024 8:44 AM EDT (12:44 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 9:18 PM
Moonrise 4:08 PM   Moonset 1:51 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 332 Pm Edt Sun Jun 16 2024

Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. A chance of. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Friday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Fenton, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 171000 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 600 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat and humidity will affect the area through the week. Excessive heat warnings and heat advisories are in effect.

- There will be periodic chances for thunderstorms throughout the week.

AVIATION

Decaying MCV continues to exit southern Lower Michigan this morning before a stabilizing response builds in through midday. Ceilings and visibilities recover to VFR around 13Z with a warm/humid airmass in place. Some additional thunderstorms are possible as the muggy air contributes to the accumulation of convective instability. Did add a PROB30 to all terminals, but poor model signal exists to point to any specifics. Should storms develop, it would largely be a diurnal response, with VFR conditions returning tonight.

For DTW/D21 Convection... Storms should clear out by 13Z with a brief period of drier weather. Large amount of uncertainty exists regarding the convective chances this afternoon/evening, thus a PROB30 was included.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft, conditional with convective development.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

DISCUSSION...

A compact mid level MCV will traverse Se Mi during the early morning hours. This wave has been responsible for clusters of strong to severe convection upstream, with the more robust convective response occuring closer to the sfc warm front. The passage of this wave and influx of deep layer moisture and elevated instability will sustain some degree of convection across Se Mi this morning, particularly across the southern portions of the forecast area. Elevated instability will be advecting into Se Mi from the west during the course of the early morning, which may be enough support isolated strong to marginally severe convection.

Some building of the mid level height field in the wake of this mornings MCV will allow respectable diurnal heating to occur. High temps upstream yesterday were in the lower to mid 90s, which look reasonable across Se Mi this afternoon. Diurnal mixing will likely hold sfc dewpoints in the 60s this afternoon which will cap heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Forecast soundings across Se Mi this afternoon/evening are uncapped. Late day convective development can therefore not be ruled out, especially considering lingering sfc boundaries expected across Se Mi.

A building mid level ridge across the East Coast over the next couple days will be responsible for the heat across the southern lakes. Models have been very consistent showing 500mb heights rising to 598-600dm as the mid level high becomes centered over the Mid Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday, while the ridge axis builds westward across the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes. Thermal profiles (with 850mb temps of +19 to +21C) across southern Michigan will be supportive of high temps into the 90s.

There does remain considerable uncertainty as to the timing and strength of numerous short wave impulses that will be circulating around the large mid level ridge, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.
These short waves are likely to impact portions or all of Se Mi at times and will continue to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to possibly high instability with a little bit of mid level flow along the northwestern side of the ridge will support a chance for a few strong to severe storms both Tuesday and Wednesday. Timing/coverage however remains highly uncertain. Medium range model ensemble members show increasing spread in the Friday to Sunday time frame with respect to the breakdown of the mid level ridge across the Great Lakes resulting from northern stream energy.
This and the increasing potential for convection to bleed into portions of Se Mi lead to some degree of uncertainty as to temps late week into next weekend.

The excessive heat watch was issued due to multiple consecutive days of hot weather as opposed to just one day of possibly breaking a heat index of 100. This is due to the fact that heat stress worsens with number of consecutive hot days. Per coordination with surrounding offices, the heat watch is being replaced with a long fused head advisory. The exception to this is the urban Detroit and Flint areas (Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Genesee Counties) where a warning is being issued given the more adverse affects of heat on these urban areas.

MARINE...

A warm and humid airmass will hold over the Great Lakes through the week, which will support relatively stable near surface lake conditions. The earlier passage of a warm front has reinforced south to southwest flow, which will hold through at least the early week period. Otherwise, there will be a couple of chances for showers and thunderstorms today. The first through this morning, pending the evolution of an upstream storm complex, with renewed chances possible later this afternoon and evening. Additional development is possible tomorrow, but this is more favored over land or along the nearshore. Localized stronger wind speeds and gusts around 20 to 25 knots will be possible through the Saginaw Bay into central Lake Huron with the favorable southwest fetch tomorrow.

HYDROLOGY...

A moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the region through Tuesday. This will bring the potential of a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms this morning through at least Wednesday.
Locations which experience strong thunderstorms will have the potential for rainfall amounts to exceed 2 inches in a short period of time, leading to urban/low lying flooding. There is too much uncertainty both the timing and potential for localized heavy flooding to issue any type of flood watch products at this time.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Friday for MIZ047>049- 053>055-060-062-063-068-075-082-083.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT Friday for MIZ061-069-070-076.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 52 mi44 minSSW 7G11 69°F 30.01
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 66 mi44 minS 21G25 71°F 29.93


Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFNT BISHOP INTL,MI 8 sm28 minSSE 0410 smA Few Clouds70°F66°F88%29.99
KPTK OAKLAND COUNTY INTL,MI 20 sm51 minW 055 smOvercast Thunderstorm Lt Rain Mist 68°F64°F88%30.02
KOZW LIVINGSTON COUNTY SPENCER J HARDY,MI 21 sm29 minSSE 0410 smMostly Cloudy68°F66°F94%30.01
KRNP OWOSSO COMMUNITY,MI 24 sm29 minESE 0410 smClear70°F66°F88%29.99
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Wind History graph: FNT
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Detroit, MI,




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