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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 354 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Today..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Light showers likely in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the south early in the afternoon. Light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Light showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 021737 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1237 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

AVIATION

Influence from a ridge of high pressure over the northern Great Lakes has brought steady mid-level subsidence today, strengthening the inversion around 4000 ft and trapping abundant moisture beneath.
The low clouds have lifted slightly to borderline IFR/MVFR for many sites, which should hold through the afternoon. Expect the onset of nocturnal cooling to trend ceilings back down to IFR, especially as light northeast wind off Lake Huron continues to supply a marine moisture contribution. A period of drizzle is likely overnight, preceding the arrival of more widespread light rain Sunday morning as the next low pressure system moves in from the south. This will keep the lower ceilings around with guidance showing high probabilities for at least IFR to hold through the end of the period. The cooler air will be held to the northwest, limiting the chance for any snow on Sunday - though mbS may see a few melting flakes mix in.

For DTW...Lower MVFR conditions to start the period, but will likely see IFR settle back in by this evening. High confidence in rain on Sunday, mainly between 13z and 22z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet this afternoon through Sunday.

* High in precip type remaining as all rain on Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 348 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

DISCUSSION...

Light rain showers continue across southern MI early this morning due to a combination of weakening elevated Fgen and deformation tied a surface low that is passing along the MI/OH border. The deeper moisture pushes off to the east this morning but a remnant moist boundary layer up to around 6kft will linger through the day within the surface trough and under a weak subsidence inversion helping to trap the moisture. This should lead to a grungy day with low clouds and drizzle. The trough will prevent any thermal advection in either direction thus we should be locked in with temps similar to yesterday with highs around 40. Little more amplified shortwave ridge passes over tonight but should only compress the remaining BL moisture, keeping low clouds locked in and possible drizzle.

Pattern remains active with several waves reinforcing the upper level trough which is stretching from the Plains toward the Great Lakes by Sunday. The next wave is a strong mid level wave which will be positioned over the Mid MS Valley Sunday morning. The 160+ knot jet stretching from LA to NY will take this wave across the Ohio Valley late in the day. Positioning just to our south will put us under upper level diffluence through the day with a surface low tracking across lower MI, just to the north of the track Friday's low took. This will bring our next round of showers which will be mainly rain once again. Proximity to the cooler air to the northwest will keep a rain/snow mention again for Mid and Northern MI. One notable difference from the Friday low will be less available moisture as the axis of deeper moisture will be well off to the SE.
So PWATs will be up to around 0.5 inch, and QPF amounts should be around 0.25 inch. There will be no snowfall accumulations mentioned at this time.

Trough slides east for the beginning of the week putting us in the coldest of the air within it, albeit only around -5C at 850mb. So highs should fall a bit to start the week into the upper 30s. Monday will offer a brief break in precip with shortwave ridge axis sliding over, but the next shortwave diving down the backside of the trough will then slide through on Tuesday. This will be more of a clipper system with poor moisture quality. In terms of temperatures, the PV axis looks to pivot through to the northeast pulling warm air up into the region. A daytime clipper with surface temps near 40 should help produce at least a rain/snow mix for the area. Will watch thermal trends and soundings to see if anything offers a better snow signal or not.

MARINE...

Low pressure centered over the southern Great Lakes maintains showers and northeasterly flow through the morning. Wind direction maintains elevated wave action around the tip of the Thumb/Bay until low pressure vacates the region this afternoon allowing winds to weaken slightly and turn more easterly. Another developing low quickly follows for Sunday taking a similar track to the Friday/Saturday system. Impact is another round of rain and snow showers as well as a modest uptick in easterly winds, though peak gusts over northern Lake Huron expected to hold sub 25kts.
Northwesterly flow redevelops on the backside of the low late Sunday into Monday potentially resulting in rougher small craft conditions around the tip of the Thumb.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ421.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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