Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Fenton, MI
March 28, 2024 6:07 PM EDT (22:07 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:20 AM Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 10:45 PM Moonset 7:39 AM |
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 347 Pm Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable - .then becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Clear in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Cloudy with showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday - North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon - .then becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday - North winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LCZ400
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 281910 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 310 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Cool and dry today with afternoon gusts to 30 mph, then chilly again tonight.
- Temperatures trend near-normal Friday with more sun than clouds.
- Showers arrive Saturday morning with a rumble of thunder possible midday as coverage of rain decreases.
- Some additional showers are possible Sunday and Monday while temperatures settle near seasonal averages.
DISCUSSION
Sparse diurnal cumulus response underway this afternoon as Southeast Michigan situates within a narrow kinematic lull aloft as low-level anticyclonic flow to the south encroaches on deep-layer upper low pressure to north, deflecting the system poleward into Hudson Bay.
The dry slot associated with the low presents well in mid-level GOES vapor imagery, arcing southwest across Windsor, Chicago, and eventually northward into the Upper Midwest. Perturbed speed max shearing off the upstream ridge targets the Ohio Valley spurring thicker clouds and showers which should hold just south of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Will continue to advertise dry PoPs today and tonight in light of subsaturated forecast soundings and PWATs generally holding AOB 0.25 inches over the next 24-36 hours. Largely unencumbered isolation window with increasingly westerly flow may prove insufficient for highs to break 50F across Metro Detroit per latest ensemble suite. Dropped highs by a degree or two given the struggle to get enough positive low-level thermal advection and mixing. Seasonably cold again tonight without the aid of longwave trapping cloud shield, therefore overnight lows should dip well below freezing again, into the mid-upper 20s.
Synoptic-scale ridge tracks eastward across the Great Lakes Friday reinforcing column subsidence and dry conditions. The thermal trough currently residing across much of Lower Michigan appears slow to retreat Friday, but 850 mb temps should recover above 0C across the entire CWA by late evening. Diffuse pressure gradient lends weak winds, generally from the west. Decent temperature gradient sets up from south to north, tied to the departure of the cold pool (and an advancing warm front) which offers a broad range of high temperatures Friday. Upper 50s expected near the Ohio Border while readings only creep into the 40s across The Thumb. Clouds increase Friday night ahead of a 1004 mb surface low lifting into the region.
The associated lower tropospheric jet activity draws an increasingly confluent ThetaE feed up the Mississippi. Aside from maybe Lenawee and Washtenaw counties, precipitation should hold-off until after 09Z.
Precip shield from the aforementioned low lifts northeastward early Saturday morning with sharp isentropic ascent resulting in rapid saturation. FGEN enhancements lend some potential for rainfall rates to exceed a tenth of an inch per hour during the peak. Thermodynamic profiles are very stable with a surface-based inversion extending between 2 kft and 4 kft AGL until the afternoon limiting mechanical mixing. Although the veering of mid-upper level winds from WSW to WNW will occur gradually midday, dry advection helps to rapidly clear out clouds aloft as minor steepening of lapse rates ensues.
Some elevated instability is noted on the order of a few hundred J/kg of CAPE. Can't completely rule out a rumble of thunder or two, but stabilization trends lend low confidence a this time. Given the earlier timing of the warm frontal progression, the warm sector should bring temperatures closer to 60F near the state-line.
High pressure builds in quickly Sunday with some lingering clouds while models have shifted to a more prominent (and northerly)
feature extending through the Ohio Valley. Some afternoon showers are possible south of M-59 Sunday afternoon/evening before the longwave pattern aligns more favorably Monday into Tuesday for widespread rainfall. Temperatures will generally be near-normal during this time. Next shot for colder air expected mid-late week with a more wintry precipitation type possibly mixing in with any precipitation.
MARINE
High pressure extending southeast from Manitoba continues building east into the central Great Lakes tonight into Friday. Breezy WSW wind will weaken this evening as a result and shift to predominantly WNW Friday at around 10 to 15 knots. The next low pressure moves through the southern Great Lakes on Saturday, bringing rain and snow to parts of the region. Winds organize out of the E/NE ahead of the system early Saturday then shift to NW as it passes by to the south.
High pressure builds in early Sunday with light and variable winds.
This will be short-lived as multiple disturbances track across the region Sunday night through the early week. At this time winds look to remain below marine headline criteria.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 133 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through today and tonight under mostly clear skies. Dry air has kept any diurnal cloud development limited in the FEW to SCT coverage and mainly across mbS and the metro terminals in the 3-5 kft range. Winds will be out of the WSW through the remainder of today with gusts in the 20-25 knot range. Stable conditions tonight under clear skies with a light wind of 5 knots or less turning more westerly into tomorrow morning.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 310 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Cool and dry today with afternoon gusts to 30 mph, then chilly again tonight.
- Temperatures trend near-normal Friday with more sun than clouds.
- Showers arrive Saturday morning with a rumble of thunder possible midday as coverage of rain decreases.
- Some additional showers are possible Sunday and Monday while temperatures settle near seasonal averages.
DISCUSSION
Sparse diurnal cumulus response underway this afternoon as Southeast Michigan situates within a narrow kinematic lull aloft as low-level anticyclonic flow to the south encroaches on deep-layer upper low pressure to north, deflecting the system poleward into Hudson Bay.
The dry slot associated with the low presents well in mid-level GOES vapor imagery, arcing southwest across Windsor, Chicago, and eventually northward into the Upper Midwest. Perturbed speed max shearing off the upstream ridge targets the Ohio Valley spurring thicker clouds and showers which should hold just south of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Will continue to advertise dry PoPs today and tonight in light of subsaturated forecast soundings and PWATs generally holding AOB 0.25 inches over the next 24-36 hours. Largely unencumbered isolation window with increasingly westerly flow may prove insufficient for highs to break 50F across Metro Detroit per latest ensemble suite. Dropped highs by a degree or two given the struggle to get enough positive low-level thermal advection and mixing. Seasonably cold again tonight without the aid of longwave trapping cloud shield, therefore overnight lows should dip well below freezing again, into the mid-upper 20s.
Synoptic-scale ridge tracks eastward across the Great Lakes Friday reinforcing column subsidence and dry conditions. The thermal trough currently residing across much of Lower Michigan appears slow to retreat Friday, but 850 mb temps should recover above 0C across the entire CWA by late evening. Diffuse pressure gradient lends weak winds, generally from the west. Decent temperature gradient sets up from south to north, tied to the departure of the cold pool (and an advancing warm front) which offers a broad range of high temperatures Friday. Upper 50s expected near the Ohio Border while readings only creep into the 40s across The Thumb. Clouds increase Friday night ahead of a 1004 mb surface low lifting into the region.
The associated lower tropospheric jet activity draws an increasingly confluent ThetaE feed up the Mississippi. Aside from maybe Lenawee and Washtenaw counties, precipitation should hold-off until after 09Z.
Precip shield from the aforementioned low lifts northeastward early Saturday morning with sharp isentropic ascent resulting in rapid saturation. FGEN enhancements lend some potential for rainfall rates to exceed a tenth of an inch per hour during the peak. Thermodynamic profiles are very stable with a surface-based inversion extending between 2 kft and 4 kft AGL until the afternoon limiting mechanical mixing. Although the veering of mid-upper level winds from WSW to WNW will occur gradually midday, dry advection helps to rapidly clear out clouds aloft as minor steepening of lapse rates ensues.
Some elevated instability is noted on the order of a few hundred J/kg of CAPE. Can't completely rule out a rumble of thunder or two, but stabilization trends lend low confidence a this time. Given the earlier timing of the warm frontal progression, the warm sector should bring temperatures closer to 60F near the state-line.
High pressure builds in quickly Sunday with some lingering clouds while models have shifted to a more prominent (and northerly)
feature extending through the Ohio Valley. Some afternoon showers are possible south of M-59 Sunday afternoon/evening before the longwave pattern aligns more favorably Monday into Tuesday for widespread rainfall. Temperatures will generally be near-normal during this time. Next shot for colder air expected mid-late week with a more wintry precipitation type possibly mixing in with any precipitation.
MARINE
High pressure extending southeast from Manitoba continues building east into the central Great Lakes tonight into Friday. Breezy WSW wind will weaken this evening as a result and shift to predominantly WNW Friday at around 10 to 15 knots. The next low pressure moves through the southern Great Lakes on Saturday, bringing rain and snow to parts of the region. Winds organize out of the E/NE ahead of the system early Saturday then shift to NW as it passes by to the south.
High pressure builds in early Sunday with light and variable winds.
This will be short-lived as multiple disturbances track across the region Sunday night through the early week. At this time winds look to remain below marine headline criteria.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 133 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through today and tonight under mostly clear skies. Dry air has kept any diurnal cloud development limited in the FEW to SCT coverage and mainly across mbS and the metro terminals in the 3-5 kft range. Winds will be out of the WSW through the remainder of today with gusts in the 20-25 knot range. Stable conditions tonight under clear skies with a light wind of 5 knots or less turning more westerly into tomorrow morning.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI | 52 mi | 67 min | WSW 11G | 47°F | 30.01 | |||
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI | 66 mi | 67 min | WSW 19G | 41°F | 29.94 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KFNT BISHOP INTL,MI | 8 sm | 14 min | W 14G23 | 10 sm | Clear | 46°F | 21°F | 37% | 29.99 | |
KPTK OAKLAND COUNTY INTL,MI | 20 sm | 14 min | W 16G25 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 46°F | 19°F | 34% | 29.98 | |
KOZW LIVINGSTON COUNTY SPENCER J HARDY,MI | 21 sm | 12 min | WSW 11G20 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 45°F | 23°F | 42% | 30.00 | |
KRNP OWOSSO COMMUNITY,MI | 24 sm | 12 min | WSW 16G22 | 10 sm | Clear | 45°F | 19°F | 36% | 29.99 |
Detroit, MI,
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