Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Fenton, MI
May 9, 2024 6:27 PM EDT (22:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:15 AM Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 5:57 AM Moonset 10:13 PM |
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 959 Am Edt Thu May 9 2024
Rest of today - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy this evening becoming partly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday - North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable - .then becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Mostly cloudy in the morning - .then light showers in the afternoon and evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ400
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 091953 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 353 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Cooler temperatures (50s to low 60s) hold through Saturday before returning to at or above normal Sunday.
- Next chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Saturday with the passage of a compact low pressure system. Severe weather is not expected.
- Another chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Monday as a cold front drops through the area.
DISCUSSION
Models continued to favor the deep layer of dry air north of the elevated frontal surface, over the strength of the fgen aloft resulting in drier conditions holding over much of the CWA through the first half of the day. Latest runs offered weaker fgen and focused it lower on the frontal surface (peaking around 700mb) which has not be enough to overcome the dry layer between 900-600mb. SPC meso analysis page shows the current showers paired perfectly with the 700mb fgen band which is located over our southern 4 counties.
We'll hold on to a chance POP up to around M59 as the moisture is still pushing north with the low now passing directly south of us so there is a chance for minor expansion northward albeit for light showers or trace amounts of rain. Northeast flow will gain more traction this evening as the low directly to our south this afternoon pushes off to the east. The deformation axis will slide through this evening across 00Z keeping some mention of POPs across the far south til around 06Z.
Cool period continues Friday as the positively tilted trough axis passes overhead. Cold air advection aloft will steepen low level lapse rates allowing for an expanding coverage of stratocu Friday with dry air advection and shortwave ridging helping to limit duration of thicker clouds and potential for any isolated showers to perk up during peak heating. Highs will be muted in the low 60s as the 850mb thermal trough around 2C slides southward out of the area with cooler northerly flow off the lakes.
Next chance of showers and thunderstorms comes on Saturday as the ridge quickly slides out and a clipper type low in the base of a narrow northern stream trough drop southeast through the Great Lakes. Attendant surface low spin up will track across far southern MI with a trailing trough axis and theta e axis extending north/northwest helping spread showers further north through Mid MI as the low passes. Still looking at some embedded thunderstorms being possible with steepening low/mid level lapse rates, a few hundred joules of MUCAPE, and mid level support from the compact mid level vort max. Severe weather is not expected as flow is very weak through the column with winds under 20 knots through 20kft.
Stronger mid level ridge slides through Sunday with westerly warm air advection boosted temps back up to at or above normal (which is upper 60s for early/mid May). Next system comes quickly for Sunday night and Monday as a northern stream trough pushes a cold front through the region. Thunderstorms will be possible again with this activity.
MARINE
Northern edge of steady rainfall is just now approaching southern Lake St. Clair, with limited additional northward expansion expected this evening which will maintain dry conditions across Lake Huron.
Responsible surface low is currently over the Ohio Valley, with prevailing northeast flow as a result. High pressure builds in briefly for Friday resulting in just a subtle shift to northerly flow and drier weather before the next low arrives on Saturday. The low is forecast to track over central Michigan, lending to a brief period of southwest flow Saturday morning ahead of a cold front before returning to the northwest later in the day as the low/front depart. Precipitation chances are once again in play for Saturday especially south of Saginaw Bay before drier weather returns Sunday in the wake of renewed high pressure. No wind/wave headlines are expected through early next week.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 150 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024
AVIATION...
Low pressure is moving across the Ohio Valley this afternoon with an area of rainfall on the north end now moving across Lower Michigan.
Rainfall will mainly impact PTK and the metro terminals. Northeasterly wind to around 10 knots is present across Michigan with a high pressure to the north helping pump in some drier lower level air.
This should keep hold predominately VFR conditions through today with occasional MVFR conditions via lower CIGS or brief reduction VSBY under any heavier shower. Will maintain VFR in TAFs and amened if a better more prolonged MVFR signal develops. Rain clears out this evening with any lower cloud largely clearing out tonight. Winds turn more northerly for tonight with a return of lower VFR clouds by tomorrow morning/afternoon supported by a cooler airmass settling over the state.
For DTW/D21 Convection... Instability holds south of the state with no observation of lightning thus far in southeast Michigan.
Thunderstorms remain unexpected through this afternoon and early evening.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon and evening.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 353 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Cooler temperatures (50s to low 60s) hold through Saturday before returning to at or above normal Sunday.
- Next chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Saturday with the passage of a compact low pressure system. Severe weather is not expected.
- Another chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Monday as a cold front drops through the area.
DISCUSSION
Models continued to favor the deep layer of dry air north of the elevated frontal surface, over the strength of the fgen aloft resulting in drier conditions holding over much of the CWA through the first half of the day. Latest runs offered weaker fgen and focused it lower on the frontal surface (peaking around 700mb) which has not be enough to overcome the dry layer between 900-600mb. SPC meso analysis page shows the current showers paired perfectly with the 700mb fgen band which is located over our southern 4 counties.
We'll hold on to a chance POP up to around M59 as the moisture is still pushing north with the low now passing directly south of us so there is a chance for minor expansion northward albeit for light showers or trace amounts of rain. Northeast flow will gain more traction this evening as the low directly to our south this afternoon pushes off to the east. The deformation axis will slide through this evening across 00Z keeping some mention of POPs across the far south til around 06Z.
Cool period continues Friday as the positively tilted trough axis passes overhead. Cold air advection aloft will steepen low level lapse rates allowing for an expanding coverage of stratocu Friday with dry air advection and shortwave ridging helping to limit duration of thicker clouds and potential for any isolated showers to perk up during peak heating. Highs will be muted in the low 60s as the 850mb thermal trough around 2C slides southward out of the area with cooler northerly flow off the lakes.
Next chance of showers and thunderstorms comes on Saturday as the ridge quickly slides out and a clipper type low in the base of a narrow northern stream trough drop southeast through the Great Lakes. Attendant surface low spin up will track across far southern MI with a trailing trough axis and theta e axis extending north/northwest helping spread showers further north through Mid MI as the low passes. Still looking at some embedded thunderstorms being possible with steepening low/mid level lapse rates, a few hundred joules of MUCAPE, and mid level support from the compact mid level vort max. Severe weather is not expected as flow is very weak through the column with winds under 20 knots through 20kft.
Stronger mid level ridge slides through Sunday with westerly warm air advection boosted temps back up to at or above normal (which is upper 60s for early/mid May). Next system comes quickly for Sunday night and Monday as a northern stream trough pushes a cold front through the region. Thunderstorms will be possible again with this activity.
MARINE
Northern edge of steady rainfall is just now approaching southern Lake St. Clair, with limited additional northward expansion expected this evening which will maintain dry conditions across Lake Huron.
Responsible surface low is currently over the Ohio Valley, with prevailing northeast flow as a result. High pressure builds in briefly for Friday resulting in just a subtle shift to northerly flow and drier weather before the next low arrives on Saturday. The low is forecast to track over central Michigan, lending to a brief period of southwest flow Saturday morning ahead of a cold front before returning to the northwest later in the day as the low/front depart. Precipitation chances are once again in play for Saturday especially south of Saginaw Bay before drier weather returns Sunday in the wake of renewed high pressure. No wind/wave headlines are expected through early next week.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 150 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024
AVIATION...
Low pressure is moving across the Ohio Valley this afternoon with an area of rainfall on the north end now moving across Lower Michigan.
Rainfall will mainly impact PTK and the metro terminals. Northeasterly wind to around 10 knots is present across Michigan with a high pressure to the north helping pump in some drier lower level air.
This should keep hold predominately VFR conditions through today with occasional MVFR conditions via lower CIGS or brief reduction VSBY under any heavier shower. Will maintain VFR in TAFs and amened if a better more prolonged MVFR signal develops. Rain clears out this evening with any lower cloud largely clearing out tonight. Winds turn more northerly for tonight with a return of lower VFR clouds by tomorrow morning/afternoon supported by a cooler airmass settling over the state.
For DTW/D21 Convection... Instability holds south of the state with no observation of lightning thus far in southeast Michigan.
Thunderstorms remain unexpected through this afternoon and early evening.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon and evening.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFNT BISHOP INTL,MI | 8 sm | 34 min | NE 09 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 57°F | 45°F | 63% | 29.82 | |
| KPTK OAKLAND COUNTY INTL,MI | 20 sm | 34 min | ENE 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | 55°F | 45°F | 67% | 29.79 | |
| KOZW LIVINGSTON COUNTY SPENCER J HARDY,MI | 21 sm | 12 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 54°F | 48°F | 82% | 29.81 |
| KRNP OWOSSO COMMUNITY,MI | 24 sm | 12 min | NNE 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 59°F | 37°F | 45% | 29.82 |
Detroit, MI,
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