Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fabius, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Another active day is shaping up for parts of the area today as the slow-moving cold front and shortwave trough we've been tracking remain off to the west early this morning. The front is currently stretched across southern Ontario and approaching the western portion of Lakes Erie and Ontario and will gradually push east throughout the day into a warm, unstable and very moist environment. The slow-moving showers and thunderstorms currently stretching from the Poconos into the Catskills will continue to slow move east and should diminish by mid morning at the latest. The break from the convection will be short-lived as additional showers and storms will develop ahead of the frontal boundary, generally after 16-17Z, and continue into this evening. The bulk of the activity today is expected to be across NE PA, the Twin Tiers and into the Catskills. A flood watch will be issued covering these areas into and through the evening. Similarly to Sunday, SBCAPE is projected to be between 1500-2500 J/kg with low-level lapse rates around 7 to 8 degrees C/km. Bulk shear is still low but a tick higher than Sunday between 15 and 30 knots, so there is the potential for a couple of storms to be on the stronger side with isolated damaging winds the main concern and SPC has the area under a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Any stronger storms would likely pulse up and down pretty quickly. Flash flooding will remain the greatest threat into the evening with PWATs of 1.75-2.00" as we continue to tap into moisture- rich air that has origins from the Caribbean, Gulf and Atlantic. Forecast sounding also feature tall, skinny CAPE sounding profiles across NE PA and the southern Catskills. Thunderstorms are expected to be slow-moving and produce torrential downpours and can train over the same locations multiple times leading to the potential for flash flooding. Urban and low-lying areas will be most susceptible.
Highs today will mostly be in the low to mid 80s.

Showers and storms will gradually come to an end this evening and the frontal boundary will continue to slowly sag to the south and east near or just pushing beyond the CWA borders by early Tuesday. It will still be a muggy night with not much of an air mass change behind the boundary with lows in the mid and upper 60s.

Tuesday is expected to be a largely dry day under partly to mostly sunny skies with ridging developing aloft and and high pressure building in at the surface. With the weakening frontal boundary still close by off to our south and east, a spotty shower or thunderstorm can't be completely ruled out during the afternoon around the Poconos and southern Catskills.
Temperatures will be trending back up with highs on Tuesday in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will remain over the area Tuesday night keeping conditions mainly dry under a clear to partly cloudy sky.
Staying warm and sticky Tuesday night with lows in the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Wednesday is expected to start out dry, but a shortwave looks to pass by to the north and west and weaken the upper ridge enough to trigger some isolated to scattered showers and storms for the afternoon and at least the evening hours Wednesday night.

With plenty of instability projected Wednesday afternoon, some storms could produce locally strong winds in addition to heavy rainfall. High temperatures Wednesday range from the mid 80s to the low 90s. Factoring in dew points still in the upper 60s and low 70s, heat indices are expected to be in the mid and upper 90s. As a result, heat headlines look possible across portions of CNY, especially for valley and urban areas. Lows Wednesday night range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Pieces of energy embedded in a relatively zonal 500mb flow will keep the chance for scattered showers and storms around on Thursday, especially during the afternoon. Again there will be the potential for some locally heavy and gusty storms with plenty of instability and PWATs around 1.50" on average. The next cold front looks to cross the area Friday with additional showers and storms. High pressure and a drier trend seem to move in for the start of the upcoming weekend before perhaps some precipitation tries to return later Sunday. Temperatures over the weekend look to be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to depart AVP over the next hour or so, but lower ceilings are expected linger through the morning from the departing convection and also a marine layer nearby. Elsewhere, VFR to occasional MVFR/IFR conditions are expected through the rest of the morning. The potential for some areas of low clouds and fog is greatest at ITH, ELM and BGM.

Later today, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening that can bring restrictions, especially to visibility as some storms will be locally heavy.
BGM and AVP have the best chance of seeing this convection, but it can't be ruled out at ELM as well. If confidence increases, then it may be added with the 12Z forecast.

Some gusty winds will be possible with incoming showers and storms. Otherwise, winds will remain light for most of the period.

Outlook...

Monday night...Mainly VFR; lingering showers possible at AVP in the evening.

Tuesday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR. A spotty thunderstorm with restrictions can not be ruled out Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday and Friday... Restrictions likely with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ038>040.
NY...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.