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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 319 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Snow and rain showers likely during the day, then snow showers likely Monday night. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 081743 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1243 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
A warm up starts today and lasts into Sunday. It will be dry today into Saturday. Sunday and Sunday night, a strong storm will bring heavy rain and strong winds. Rain then ends as a period of snow early Monday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
910 AM Update...

Patchy valley fog has mostly lifted across the region. Mostly cloudy skies will remain overhead this morning, scattering out during the afternoon hours. SW flow will bring much warmer temperatures today, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 40s.

530 am update...
Extended the light mixed precipitation in northern Oneida County for 2 or 3 more hours. Clouds continue across most of the CWA.
Despite the lower clouds pushing east, high clouds will remain this morning.

230 AM update...

Temperatures early this morning have been nearly steady in the mid and upper 30s. Increased hourly and min temperatures again.
Clouds continue across the area even as the warm front slowly lifts northeast through the western Mohawk Valley. This should end the light mixed precipitation in Oneida County by sunrise.

Today will show big changes as warmer and drier air moves in from the southwest. The area will mostly under mid and high clouds this period with more sunshine than the last 2 days.
South winds at the surface will increase to 10 mph for most and 10 to 20 mph in the Finger Lakes.

Temperature forecasts remain the same with highs in the 40s today and upper 40s to lower 50s Saturday. Lows tonight will be mostly in the 30s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A slow moving frontal boundary with several waves of low pressure along it draws a little closer Saturday night. A strengthening LLJ will aid an increase of warm air advection and moisture.
Temperatures may fall a few degrees in the evening before becoming steady overnight in the 40's. Rain ahead of the front should be widespread given plenty of lift and moisture reaching the Finger Lakes around daybreak.

A very active Sunday through Monday period still expected. The previously mentioned cold front will be a slow mover resulting in widespread rainfall spreading west to east across the region throughout the day Sunday. Given the south to north motion of the rainfall several rounds of rainfall are expected. PW values should surge well above climatology Ensemble guidance continues to show anywhere from 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall. The good news is that the ground is not totally frozen with low snow cover. However, this amount of rainfall in a short period can still lead to a few occurrences of urban and small stream flooding.

Temperatures should spike into the 50's Sunday given a strong LLJ.
More importantly, winds a few thousand feet up in the atmosphere increase to over 50 mph by Sunday afternoon from the LLJ. However, the wind will have some difficulty mixing down the ground with top gusts of 20-30 mph more likely at this time during the day. Along and just ahead of the front the environment should become more favorable for mixing bringing down some 30-40 mph gusts. One opportunity for the highest gusts would likely be just ahead of the front when some elevated instability becomes present. The instability looks to limited for any strong to severe thunderstorms with CAPE non-existent but enough to where some thunder is possible Sunday afternoon and evening. Gusty convective showers are not out of the question though. This potential will be better assessed with as more mesoscale guidance comes in.

Behind the front should be a sharp drop in temperatures to around freezing. Anafrontal precipitation is modeled across the region allowing rain to change to a quick thump of moderate to heavy snow for a good portion of our region Sunday night. Looking at the NAM soundings a brief period of sleet is also hinted at but this looks transient and not in the forecast currently. The exact track of the surface lows generating the anafrontal precipitation will determine how long and how much snow will occur. For now, a few hours of snowfall with some light accumulations do look possible. Snow ratios look to be quite low given the temperatures, only around 5-8:1 with some elevation dependence as well. Left in the mention of blowing snow given the wind gusts but the weight/load of the snowfall may prevent any blowing snow.

Temperatures should hover around freezing Monday with some lingering light snow showers. A flash freeze is unlikely given that temperatures look to only drop to around freezing. A more favorable environment for mixing continues for a good portion with strong cold air advection and some 30-40 mph gusts.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Temperatures generally in the 20's and 30's Tuesday through Thursday. A weak disturbance or two may result in a few snow showers at some point with the highest chances along the Ny Thruway corridor. Some wind and a fairly decent amount of cloud cover should prevent temperatures from tanking due to any snow cover.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the TAF period. Some hints at a possible period of MVFR ceilings at AVP tonight with weak onshore flow pushing moisture into the Poconos and southern Catskills. It does not look like this would make its way into AVP given the weak flow, but it will need to be monitored.

There will be a few hours of LLWS up to FL020 at 35kts across BGM, SYR and ELM this evening. It is expected to dissipate by 06z.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR.

Sunday...Becoming MVFR-IFR with rain developing in the afternoon.

Sunday night...IFR or lower. Rain changing to snow. Gusty winds.

Monday...Restrictions likely with lingering snow showers and gusty NW winds.

Tuesday...VFR-MVFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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