Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Geneva, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
315 AM Update

Main story in this period will be the bitter cold, arctic air mass settling over the region. Cold weather advisories are in effect areawide through noon on Wednesday; with wind chills as low as 10 below to 24 below zero possible at times. It is already starting off very cold early this morning, with actual air temperatures between 10 below zero and 5 above zero in most locations. With -23C air at 850mb over the region, it will not warm up much this afternoon...
despite partly sunny skies. It will only make it to +5 to +15F for highs today. Most, if not all of the lake effect snow will remain north/west of our forecast area. There is a slight chance for a few snow flurries or showers to extend into portions of CNY this afternoon off of Lake Erie; with minimal to no accumulation.

Tonight looks to be the coldest night of this arctic outbreak, as temperatures aloft hold steady and the core of the cold moves overhead. A 1035mb surface high also builds into the area late at night, and this should keep skies mainly clear and allow winds to decouple, becoming light/variable in the valleys.
Therefore, the official forecast takes expected lows down below the NBM10th percentile tonight into early Wednesday morning.
This seems quite reasonable, based on how low temperatures are already falling early this morning. Tonight's lows should range from 0 to 15 below zero! Any light winds that do occur will lower the apparent temperatures even more. The flow briefly turns more west-northwest off of Lake Ontario and this looks to spread some lake effect snow showers across Oneida county, mainly north of I-90 where 0.5 to 2 inches of light powdery snow is possible. Elsewhere, it will likely remain dry and mainly clear.

High pressure remains in place on Wednesday, and temperatures do begin moderating at 850mb late in the day; back toward -18C by sunset. However, after such a cold start, afternoon highs will once again struggle to get into the upper single digits to mid-10s. After a few morning snow flurries near Syracuse and northwest of Rome, it will be another dry and mainly sunny day with light southwest winds.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
340 AM Update...

Quiet conditions are expected Wednesday night with surface high pressure centered off to our south and east and 500mb heights rising slightly. Although winds will be becoming southwesterly and 850mb temperatures around -15 C in the evening rise closer to -10 C prior to daybreak Thursday, it will be another very cold night with lows in the single digits and near 0 degrees toward the Tug Hill and in portions of the Catskills.
Temperatures may rise several degrees though before daybreak with the slight moderation in 850mb temps.

Surface high pressure slides to the east early Thursday and an elongated shortwave trough moves through during the afternoon and winds will turn more WNW by Thursday night. With the flow coming back off of the lakes, this can lead to a few lake effect snow showers or flurries, mainly north of the Southern Tier and over western portions Steuben County. High temperatures won't be quite as cold Thursday reaching the lower and mid 20s. Lows Thursday night fall back into the single digits and lower teens.

Another upper level shortwave swinging through the Great Lakes and across the northern part of our area will enhance northwesterly flow off of Lake Ontario Friday. This will lead to a chance of scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries primarily north of the Southern Tier, particularly around the NYS Thruway corridor and perhaps into the northern Catskills.
NBM was largely dry this day so PoPs were taken up to 30-40% for now over portions of Onondaga, Madison and Oneida Counties.
Highs Friday range from the upper teens to the mid 20s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
340 AM Update...

Lake effect snow showers are expected to lift north of the area later Friday night with low temperatures in the single digits.
A weak clipper system moving in from the northwest will lead to a chance for scattered snow showers later Saturday into Sunday.
Early next week there may be a couple of other disturbances moving through the region with additional chances for snow showers, but confidence in timing and placement of any feature is very low at this point, so ran with the NBM beyond Sunday for now.

High temperatures do look more seasonable in the long range in the mid 20s to low 30s Saturday into early next week. Some valley locations may reach the mid 30s on Sunday. Overnight lows look to be in the teens and low 20s.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
1250 AM Update

VFR conditions are expected throughout the entire TAF period (at least through 06Z Wednesday). There will be some lake effect clouds and snow showers across the Tug Hill region, but this is expected to remain north of KRME. Some sct to bkn mid level clouds are forecast to move into the area on Tuesday, and we cannot rule out a stray snow shower or flurry in the afternoon.

Surface winds are generally light, west-southwest at 5 to 10 kts through the day.

Outlook...

Tonight through Wednesday morning...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a passing lake effect snow shower at KRME or KSYR, which may result in very brief restrictions.

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday through Saturday...A few snow showers may result in brief restrictions at KSYR or KRME, but otherwise mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for PAZ038>040- 043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.