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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 333 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 8 to 11 feet building to 10 to 13 feet, then subsiding to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 091138 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 638 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS

Much warmer temperatures are expected across the region into Sunday. Dry weather is expected into this evening before rain returns to the region late tonight. Sunday and Sunday night will see a strong storm bring heavy rain. Rain transitions to snow Sunday night, ending Monday as a deepening low pressure moves up the east coast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Minor changes with the sunrise update with regards to cloud cover this morning. Forecast discussion below on track.

Our region will enter the warm sector ahead of a strong cold frontal boundary today allowing temperatures to rise to around 50 despite the cloud cover. Overall, the setup has trended a bit more progressive and eastward. Still model run to run changes are not ideal aka the NAM, but the window with the ensemble guidance is shrinking.

A slow moving frontal boundary with several waves of low pressure along it draws a little closer tonight. A strengthening LLJ will aid an increase of warm air advection and moisture. Temperatures may fall a few degrees in the evening before becoming steady overnight in the 40's. Rain ahead of the front should be widespread given plenty of lift and moisture reaching the Finger Lakes around daybreak.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A very active Sunday through Monday period still expected. The previously mentioned cold front will be a slow mover resulting in widespread rainfall spreading west to east across the region throughout the day Sunday. Given the south to north motion of the rainfall several rounds of rainfall are expected. PW values should surge well above climatology Ensemble guidance continues to show anywhere from 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall but this zone has mainly shifted to locations east of I-81. A sharp cutoff is now appearing on some model with totals of an inch or less for portions of the Finger Lakes. For now, have not pulled back this much. This amount of rainfall in a short period can still lead to a few occurrences of urban and small stream flooding particularly in the western Catskills and NE PA.

Temperatures should spike into the 50's Sunday given the LLJ. While winds look strong in the mid and upper levels the wind will have some difficulty mixing down the ground with top gusts of 20-30 mph more likely at this time during the day. Along and just ahead of the front the environment should become more favorable for mixing bringing down some 20-30 mph gusts. Given the potential for more of an inversion some of these gusts Sunday may struggle to reach the surface. Mesoscale model guidance is indicating the potential for some thunderstorms with the focus just to our southeast. Still a thunderstorm or two along or near the front is possible given some elevated instability.

Behind the front should be a sharp drop in temperatures to around freezing. Anafrontal precipitation is modeled across the region allowing rain to change to a quick thump snow for a good portion of our region Sunday night. The exact track of the surface lows generating the anafrontal precipitation will determine how long and how much snow will occur. For now, a few hours of snowfall with some accumulations do look possible. FGEN forcing is favorable for a narrow band of moderate to heavy snowfall to develop with rates of 1+ inches per hour Snow ratios look to be quite low given the temperatures, only around 5-8:1 with some elevation dependence as well.

Temperatures should hover around freezing Monday with some lingering light snow showers. Additional lake effect snow showers should be scattered around Monday afternoon and evening using the NAM and RGEM some accumulations in the NY Thruway look likely with a secondary max in the southern Tier of NY. With the low becoming stronger off to our northwest, wind gusts will increase into the 30-40 mph range with some locally higher gusts which is just under advisory criteria. A flash freeze is not expected but the snow squall potential may need to be monitored. Snowfall amounts generally look to be around 1-3 inches with 3-6 in the highest elevations above 1,500 feet near and east of I-81 which includes the lake effect. Given model variability and the forecasted amounts did not issue a winter storm watch with this forecast package.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
230 am update...

Monday night a brief shot of lake effect snow off Lake Ontario on northwest winds. There should be a few inches of snow for Onondaga, Madison and Oneida. On Tuesday ridging shifts the winds to the west giving the entire area a dry day.

Tuesday night to Thursday a series of weak short waves brush the area. Some snow showers will be possible with light amounts again in the north. Moisture is limited but cold air advection Wednesday will help with some lake enhancement. This period lows will be in the 20s with highs in the 30s.

Starting Friday ridging starts aloft and at the surface. Drier and warmer air moves in. Highs in the 40s. This weather should continue into Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
620 am update...

VFR will continue through 06z Sunday. MVFR moves in 8 to 12z along with rain. IFR is possible starting around 12z at BGM/AVP/ELM/ITH due to cigs and possibly vsbys.

Winds will be southeast to south at 10 kts or less. LLWS is likely late tonight starting mostly at 08z. 2k ft winds are southwest at 40 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday...MVFR-IFR with rain.

Sunday night...IFR or lower. Rain changing to snow. Strong gusty winds.

Monday...Restrictions likely with lingering snow showers and strong gusty NW winds.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR-MVFR depending on lake effect showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

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