Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 2:50 PM   Moonset 3:45 AM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 431 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Scattered showers early. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Friday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 30 knots in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet. Saturday night - West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet. Sunday - West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 190129 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 929 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Drier yet cloudy tonight into Friday morning before another cold front ushers in more showers Friday afternoon and night. We turn breezy and cooler for the weekend with some rain or even snow showers possible on Saturday. A dry stretch finally ensues Sunday through Tuesday with cool temperatures trending milder through the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Only minor changes with the mid evening update. Previous below.

Early this evening we are watching some drizzle move through the region. So expanded the coverage of drizzle with this update. A general dreary night is still expected. Previous discussion below.

Heading into tonight, any partial clearing early on will quickly fade behind cloudy skies as Canadian high pressure continues to build into northern New England. Despite the increased low-level moisture, guidance maintains a mainly dry forecast tonight as our washed-out warm front lifts eastward and upper level ridging and mid-level dry air build into further into the Northeast. However, some pockets of drizzle may linger, especially in NE PA and the Catskills, at least through Midnight as low-level southeast flow upslopes the terrain.
Otherwise, we will not see a large diurnal change tonight given clouds. Overnight temperatures only cooling into the mid to upper 30s in the Catskills, Mohawk Valley and NE PA with low to mid 40s in the Southern Tier, Fingers Lakes, and towards Syracuse.

Cloudy skies continue tomorrow with temperatures turning milder in comparison to today with much of the region warming into the 50s to low 60s as shortwave ridging continues overhead. Upstream we have a closed upper level low positioned north of the Great Lakes with its associated occluded sfc low near the Hudson Bay.
An attendant cold front will be tracking eastward from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A few weak shortwave embedded in the southwest flow aloft look to allow a secondary sfc low to develop along the thermal/moisture gradient as the front reaches west/central NY. Overall moisture is not very impressive but with the secondary sfc low will likely provide additional forcing for showers to continue and spread into the Twin Tiers, the Finger Lakes eastwards towards the Catskills, NE PA, and the Mohawk Valley. Best chance for showers looks to be tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening and have maintained widespread chance POPs with even likely POPs west of I-81 by 18 - 21 UTC.
Overall QPF is light with around a tenth expected. Higher amounts ranging 0.25 - 0.40 inches expected in Oneida County where some lake enhanced moisture can contribute to increased QPF.

The boundary looks to weaken as it reaches the Catskills Fri night with the thermal and moisture gradient becoming less defined. The boundary may slow down overnight so have maintained slight chance and low end chance POPs east of the Susquehanna River into the southeast Catskills. Otherwise, clearing should ensue behind the front as westerly flow ushers in a drier air mass. Overnight lows turn cooler dropping into the mid to upper 30s with low 40s in valley areas thanks to some radiational cooling. Winds become a bit elevated behind the front becoming sustained 5 - 12kts overnight.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Expect a chilly weekend as our large scale upper level closed low tracks towards the Hudson Bay with associated secondary shortwaves dig into the Northeast. For Saturday, weak high pressure in the morning will exit to the east as a secondary cold front will be on the approach for the afternoon thanks to a more potent shortwave trough tracking through Ontario into the Northeast. There is some mid-level moisture with the front and combined with additional lake moisture, a few afternoon rain showers are possible and we maintained slight chance POPS to low end chance POPs. We placed the highest POPs near and north of the NY Thruway into the southern Tug Hill and for the northern Fingers Lakes given closer proximity to Lake Ontario. Best chance for showers will be in the afternoon as the front pushes through the region from northwest to southeast. After temperatures rise into the upper 40s to low-mid 50s by early to mid-afternoon, west to northwest winds turn gusty in the wake of the front reaching up to 20-25kts with temperatures cooling into the 40s by sunset.
Deterministic guidance is not too enthused with QPF generally under a tenth of inch given the incoming front should just generate isolated to scattered showers with some locally higher amounts from lake enhancements possible. The 500hPa cool pool associated with the incoming shortwave is rather impressive nearing -25C to -30C so would not be surprised if some sleet or graupel is mixed in the rain showers, especially late afternoon as temperatures cool into the 40s.

Clearing skies continues Saturday night with westerly winds staying a bit breezy overnight as large scale highs pressure centered in the Central Plains will builds eastward. It will be a chilly night with temperatures cooling into the low to mid 30s thanks to some radiational cooling.

We close out the weekend with high pressure maintaining mainly sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures for Sunday as northwest flow continues aloft. High temperatures will stay cool given ongoing cold air advection only warming into the low to mid 50s...cooler in the upper 40s in the Catskills. Westerly winds will stay breezy as yet another shortwave and reinforcing cold front track through Ontario into northern New England. The winds will make it feel a bit cooler despite the sunshine as deep boundary layer mixing support gusts up to 20-25kts once again. Winds gradually weaken overnight but stay a bit elevated.
Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 30s under clear skies.
Leaned on the cooler end of guidance for Sunday night lows given the more favorable raditional cooling conditions.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Sunshine and pleasant spring temperatures are in store for Monday as large scale high pressure stays in control. West to northwest winds remain a bit breezy for the first half of the day but trend downwards during the afternoon as high pressure shifts into New England. As some weak return southwest flow ensues, high temperatures should trend warmer compared to the previous few days with highs reaching into the mid to upper 50s with even low 60s in NE PA and valley areas within the Twin Tiers.

Pleasant and even milder weather ensues for Tuesday as southwest return flow ushers in an even milder air mass with temperatures trending into the upper 50s with more of the region reaching into the low to even mid-60s.

Another cold front looks to impact the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with chances for rain returning. Still uncertainty on the exact timing of the front and moisture fields but maintained widespread chance and even likely POPs given good run to run consistency on this system occurring and decent moisture fields and thermal gradient along the boundary. The parent shortwave is rather potent and guidance shows it taking on a negative tilt as it tracks into Ontartio but there remains discrepancies on its exact track. Despite the strong forcing, this system looks fast moving and progressive so any hydro issues appear unlikely. Drier and cooler conditions return for Thursday.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mainly Fuel Alt to IFR restrictions continue this evening at RME/ITH/ELM due to light showers and drizzle lingering over our region. SYR/BGM can expect to see Below Alt Mins that may last well into the early morning period, especially at BGM. South easterly flow over AVP will most likely keep ceilings bouncing between MVFR and Fuel Alt tonight. Otherwise conditions will begin to slightly improve to Fuel Alt/MVFR soon after sunrise at all terminals. Another round of showers is expected to move through tomorrow afternoon. This will again bring possible IFR restrictions for ELM/ITH/BGM at the end of the period.

Outlook...

Friday...Lingering restrictions in the morning; perhaps a brief VFR window, then more restrictions as rain showers arrive in the afternoon and evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected. Occasional MVFR CIGs possible for CNY terminals in the afternoon.

Sunday...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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