Saturday, January16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Geneva, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 5:00PM Saturday January 16, 2021 4:29 AM EST (09:29 UTC) Moonrise 10:03AMMoonset 8:52PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 631 Pm Est Fri Jan 15 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am est Saturday...
Tonight..East winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain through the early overnight, then rain and snow late. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers in the morning, then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 37 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202101160400;;976670 FZUS51 KBUF 152339 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 631 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-160400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geneva, NY
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location: 42.86, -76.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 160825 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 325 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A low pressure system will finish moving through the region today, after up to a few inches snow accumulation in the high terrain, and mixed rain with wet snow in lower elevations. However, accumulating lake enhanced snow will persist in northern Oneida County late today through Sunday. Scattered snow showers will occur from the Twin Tiers and Catskills northward.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. 325 AM Update . Attention will turn from the low pressure system finishing its trek through our region today, to accumulating lake enhanced snow mainly north of the New York Thruway tonight through Sunday.

Energy transfer is occurring between a western Great Lakes surface low, and a newly deepening one now moving up the East Coast, as upper low aloft translates between the two. Ahead of the upper low, moist diffluent flow aloft resulted in the expected development of precipitation overnight. What started as mainly rain has been undergoing dynamic cooling with changeover to wet snow first at higher elevations and working its way into the valleys. This batch of synoptic precipitation will lift northeast this morning through midday, with the end result of up to a few inches of wet snow accumulation in highest terrain, yet very little accumulation in valleys due to wet ground a late changeover to wet snow. We end up getting dry slotted ahead of the upper low this afternoon, with a relative lull in precipitation, as well as some rain mixing in again for the valleys for what little activity that remains.

The upper low passes over the region late afternoon-early evening, and then drifts to New England by early Sunday. This will allow synoptic mid-to-upper level moisture from the Atlantic to wrap cyclonically back around into northern New York. The air mass on the back side of this system will not be that cold, with 850mb temperatures only down to about 6-8C below freezing. That by itself is marginal for a lake response. However, combined with the mid- upper level wrap around moisture, the lake contribution will help to enhance snow even though it will not be pure lake effect. In the end, a long duration of moderate snow is anticipated late today-tonight through Sunday. In fact for Sunday, a long stretch of westerly winds will probably cause a Huron-to-Ontario multilake moisture contribution to further aid snow production, as suggested by the Canadian model which is usually superior in handling lake effect processes. Some Lake Erie moisture will also make its way across the area with at least scattered snow showers from the Twin Tiers northward, with light dustings to 1-2 inch accumulations for some locations. Gusts will reach 20-30 mph on Sunday, to make the still slightly-above-climatology highs in the 30s feel cooler.

Total snow through 7PM Sunday for Northern Oneida County is very likely to exceed 6 inches, especially Camden-Florence- Ava-Boonville areas. The northwest corner/Tug Hill plateau area in particular is probable to get around a foot or so. The Winter Storm Warning thus remains in effect for Northern Oneida County through Sunday.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. 325 AM Update . Continued CAA Sunday night keeps some lake effect snow going but a mid level ridge building in starts to limit the intensity of the snow across northern Oneida county. The ridge is short lived as another shortwave moves overhead Monday with 850 mb temperatures falling once again to around -10C. Winds near the surface become more northwesterly behind the shortwave with lake effect snow showers increasing in coverage. With less of a fetch, lake effect snow will be more cellular rather than organized bands so while more of Central NY will see snow Monday, accumulations will be light. With the progressive pattern we are in, a ridge builds back in Monday night with most of the snow coming to an end with the exception of the western finger lakes and Steuben county where a band extending from Lake Erie could reach.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. 325 AM Update . The long term stays very active with frequent shortwaves moving through. Each one brings a little bit of synoptic snow followed by a reinforcing shot of cold air, resulting in lake effect snow. Breaks between systems will be short so there is not much of a chance to see the sun for the long term nor is the temperature expected to get above freezing. With predominantly NW flow aloft, none of the systems will be very strong so significant snow from a single event is unlikely. The Finger Lakes and Central NY could nickel and dime their way to more than 6 inches of snow by the end of next week with NE PA will se much less without lake moisture making it much south of the Twin Tiers.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A winter storm is bringing restrictions across the region this morning, including rain gradually mixing over to snow. Fuel alternate required to IFR conditions will occur; even to LIFR at times especially as the change to snow occurs. Some improvement is expected later this morning as steadier precipitation lifts northeast. However, KRME is likely to get into lake effect snow showers and ceiling restrictions later today through this evening. Initial east-southeast winds will go variable towards dawn; switching around to west-northwest around 5-10 knots late morning through afternoon, then westerly by evening.

Outlook .

Late Saturday Night through Sunday night . Occasional restrictions in lake effect snow showers, especially at KSYR- KRME. KELM and especially KAVP primarily VFR.

Monday through Wednesday . Passing weak disturbances with scattered lake effect snow showers/associated restrictions. KAVP mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ009.

SYNOPSIS . MDP NEAR TERM . MDP SHORT TERM . AJG LONG TERM . AJG AVIATION . MDP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 43 mi90 min WSW 5.1 G 6 37°F 1005.1 hPa
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 44 mi60 min 36°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 49 mi60 min SE 11 G 17 34°F 1003.6 hPa32°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY15 mi37 minNW 70.50 miLight Rain Fog36°F34°F93%1003 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmSE4SE7SE9SE9
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SE7SE4SE7SE8SE7SE6E4SE6S4S4CalmNW7
1 day agoCalmS4SW6SW4SW4SW5S7S6SW5W5--W3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmNE3S3SE6E3
2 days agoSW7SW6SW7SW6S5S8S6S7S9S7S7SW8S8S7S7SW7S3S7SW12SW10SW5SW6S5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.