Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 4:22 AM   Moonset 7:09 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1004 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
This afternoon - North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday night - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 071838 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 238 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Sunny and dry weather expected this afternoon but a warm front moving in tonight brings the threat for showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Tomorrow, a cold front moves through with the threat for a few isolated strong storms in the late morning and early afternoon. Cooler and showery weather is expected late week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
230 PM update...

Sunny skies with a pocket of dry air moving through aloft evident in water vapor imagery has caused dew points to fall with day time mixing. Winds are fairly light but relative humidities have fallen to around 30 percent for much of the region. Deeper moisture is trying to make its way in from central PA so NEPA is fairing a bit better with RH this afternoon. Tonight, a warm front lifts in with clouds increasing as well as a threat for some rain showers and elevated thunderstorms. Forecast soundings do get up near 1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE and with 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, there is a small threat for some hail though hail size overnight should stay sub severe with CAPE being skinny.

Tomorrow is looking a bit more interesting as there is a weak elevated mixed layer moving through in the morning to early afternoon where mid level lapse rates get up over 7 C/km with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots associated with a jet streak moving overhead. Some of the CAMs do get to have over 1000 J/km of surface based CAPE in the afternoon with little capping. Despite there being good lapse rates and weakly capped surface based CAPE is the lack of a trigger at the time we have the ingredients in place for severe storms. There is a 500 mb vorticity wave moving through northern NY so right now the NY thruway corridor has the best chance at seeing a stronger storm in the afternoon with large hail and wind being the main threat if a storm can get going. Decided to keep at least a slight chance of thunderstorms in the grids for tomorrow afternoon as any outflow from storms farther away could trigger storms to develop later in the day despite no mid level triggers.

Wednesday night is looking cooler with a cold front dropping south and skies clearing and dry air advecting in at lower levels of the atmosphere. With stronger boundary layer winds, temperatures were not lowered below model guidance yet but if there can be some decoupling, good radiational cooling will cause temperatures to fall below forecasted values.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
315 AM Update...

Any remaining showers or thunderstorms will diminish Wednesday evening. Low pressure north of the Ohio Valley will slowly move east through the night, and a few showers may work into western parts of the CWA before dawn Thursday. This low looks to track into western PA Thursday, after which its track becomes a little more uncertain. Either way, rain showers will spread south to north across NEPA and CNY, north of a warm front draped across the Mid Atlantic. Precip will linger across the area Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
315 AM Update...

Forecast confidence goes off the rails in the long term. Low pressure will likely be located somewhere in eastern NY or NEPA Friday morning, with rain showers continuing. The GFS slowly lifts the low north towards the Saint Lawrence Valley, while the ECMWF is far weaker and progressive. Ensembles suggest a wide range of possible solutions between Friday afternoon and Saturday evening in terms of precip chances. Kept lower-end PoPs for Friday Night into the first part of Saturday as we may end up in a break between systems. The next system looks to bring another round of rain showers to the area later Sunday, pushing east of the area Monday.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions expected through at least 0Z this evening before showers and possibly thunderstorms move in tonight after 6Z. Dry air initially will prevent cigs from falling until the time that the rain arrives at the terminals. BGM and AVP have the best chance at seeing IFR cigs as there are better odds of better moisture arriving later in the night. There is some instability as the showers move through so thunder is possible but confidence is too low to include in the TAF yet. Heavy rain showers were added for the best estimated timing of the potential thunderstorms. Tomorrow, winds pick up and drier air moves back in with VFR conditions returning to all terminals by 18Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon... isolated yet gusty thunderstorms possible with associated restrictions.

Wednesday night through Sunday...Periods of showers with some restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region, especially Thursday-Friday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Binghamton, NY,