Sunrise 5:28 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 10:05 AM   Moonset 1:10 AM

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LMZ673 Expires:202405132115;;138457 Fzus63 Kmkx 131406 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 906 am cdt Mon may 13 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
no major changes to the going forecast with this issuance.
a weak cold front draped across the northern third of lake michigan will slowly push southward through today. Expect southwest winds ahead of this front, with light north winds behind it. A few Thunderstorms are possible across the southern half this afternoon and evening ahead of this front. Northeast winds will increase tonight into Tuesday as low pressure around 29.6 inches develops in the middle mississippi valley. Winds shift northerly as low pressure tracks into ohio Tuesday afternoon and evening, with winds diminishing into Tuesday night as the low weakens. Winds remain light and northerly through Wednesday as high pressure of 30.1 inches over the hudson bay noses into the region. Winds are expected to remain light through Thursday.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-132115- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 906 am cdt Mon may 13 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Rest of today - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt veering to northwest 10 to 15 kt. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Tonight - North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast 15 to 25 kt. Rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Tuesday - Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft. Tuesday night - North winds to 30 kt becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt overnight. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Wednesday - North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Wednesday night - North winds 10 to 20 kt veering to southeast 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 kt backing to southeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 131530 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1030 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. A few early-afternoon thunderstorms may produce briefly gusty winds and marginally severe hail.

- Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue to impact air quality through this afternoon in portions of southwestern Wisconsin.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms expected to impact southern Wisconsin late this week and into this weekend.

UPDATE
Issued 1021 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

We are currently keeping an eye on a cold front that is slowly working it's way south over the area. It is currently located roughly along a line from the Dells to Sheboygan. This afternoon, instability is expected to build along this boundary and lift from frontal convergence will drive thunderstorm development. Shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but steep low level lapse rates and large sfc dewpoint depressions will support gusty winds, and max lapse rates approaching 7 C/km aloft could support marginally severe hail if a storm maintains a vigorous enough updraft before shear limits its development.

We do expect a reissuance of the Air Quality Advisory from the DNR at some point this morning with wildfire smoke present on visible satellite behind the front and sfc vis down to as low as 2 1/2 miles for some north-central Wisconsin locations. Stay tuned for updates.

CMiller

SHORT TERM
Issued 402 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Today through Tuesday:

A weak cold front is draped across northern Wisconsin, slowly progressing southward through today. With subsidence behind this cold front, areas of smoke and poor air quality remain possible across portions of central Wisconsin through this morning.
Meanwhile, low pressure developing in eastern Kansas this morning will approach the Middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon and lead to convergence-based showers and thunderstorms in far southern Wisconsin. Light southeasterly winds are expected through much of the day, with a lake breeze enhanced by the weak northern cold front pushing inland this afternoon and providing an additional trigger for shower and thunderstorm development.

Early in the afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development, surface based CAPE values close to 800 J/kg, boundary layer lapse rates close to dry adiabatic, and inverted-v sounding signatures lead to concerns for briefly gusty winds under heavier storms. However, this threat looks to remain very isolated, with dewpoints expected to rise back into the upper 50s and bulk shear remaining near or below 25 kt providing less support than yesterday. Going into the evening hours, expect winds to rapidly turn northeasterly and bring in stable air from Lake Michigan. Some elevated instability may remain, allowing for continued embedded thunderstorms, but the main weather mode looks to be showers.

Showers slowly sink southeastward overnight, exiting into Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, low pressure to the south allows for increased PGF winds from the north-northeast. Expect wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph Tuesday into Tuesday evening before diminishing as low pressure shifts into Ohio and weakens.

MH

LONG TERM
Issued 402 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Tuesday night through Sunday:

Nely winds will continue Tue nt but gradually become lighter as a sfc ridge builds south from Ontario into wrn WI. The sfc ridge will then slowly moves across srn WI on Wed. Mostly clear skies will continue for this period with high temps in the lower 70s well inland from Lake MI.

A weak sfc trough and upper level trough will then move across MN Wed nt and into WI on Thu. PWs will increase to 1 inch with marginal instability ahead of this feature. The fcst soundings do become fairly saturated in the low to mid levels with little to no capping so the 50-60 percent PoPs of the NBM looks reasonable.
The showers will continue into the evening over se WI. Another weaker shortwave trough will then approach and pass through srn WI for Fri-Fri eve so will have to maintain 20-30 percent PoPs. High temps will remain in the 70s away from the lake both days.

Upper ridging will then take hold for the weekend with some differences in timing of the sfc warm frontal passage. A warm weekend is expected with another Sunday possibly in the 80s. Rain chances of 20-30 percent chances are forecast via warm, moist advection.

Gehring

AVIATION
Issued 1022 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Cloud cover is currently located along an axis from roughly KPVB to KSBM this morning ahead of a cold front that is slowly sinking south. This afternoon, instability will build along the front and lead to thunderstorm development that may impact all TAF sites. Winds north of the front will be northerly while winds south of the front will be south to southwesterly. Any ceilings late this morning into the afternoon will be VFR with heights around 7000 to 9000 feet. Those should lower to around 4000 this afternoon as rain falls over the region, with bases around 2500 ft possible with any storms. Overnight, ceilings will lower to MVFR with the lowest heights around 1000ft along the WI/IL border.

CMiller

MARINE
Issued 402 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A weak cold front draped across the northern third of Lake Michigan will slowly push southward through today. Expect southwest winds ahead of this front, with light north winds behind it. A few thunderstorms are possible across the southern half this afternoon and evening ahead of this front. Northeast winds will increase tonight into Tuesday as low pressure develops in the Middle Mississippi Valley. Winds shift northerly as low pressure tracks into Ohio Tuesday afternoon and evening, with winds diminishing into Tuesday night as the low weakens. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect late tonight through late Tuesday night for elevated winds and waves in the nearshore regions. Winds remain light and northerly through Wednesday as high pressure over the Hudson Bay noses into the region. Winds are expected to remain light through Thursday.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 AM Tuesday to 4 AM Wednesday.

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