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FXUS63 KFSD 291134 AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 534 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

DISCUSSION
Issued at 256 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Normal to above normal temperatures are forecast to continue throughout the forecast period.

- Dry weather persists over much of the region, with only a very low probability (10-20%) for light snow Saturday night.

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Clear skies continue to prevail across the region, with latest observations showing temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Expect these temps to drop a few more degrees by daybreak, resulting in morning lows into the mid to upper 20s.

As alluded to in the previous discussion, will see above normal temperatures persist across the region today with the aid of S/SW winds, sunny skies, and weak WAA. Thus have highs rising into the mid to upper 40s, with a few locations west of the James River climbing into the lower 50s.

A moisture starved cold front will then dive across the region overnight, bringing cooler temperatures back to the forecast Thursday and Friday. That being said, we are only talking about a few degrees below normal as highs rise into the mid to upper 30s.
Lows during this time will generally range from the teens to lower 20s.

Broad upper level troughing develops over the western CONUS this weekend, with a weak shortwave progged to eject northeastward across the central Plains Saturday. While the better moisture and dynamics look to remain to our south, guidance continues to suggest that portions of northwest Iowa and far northeastern Nebraska may be clipped by the northern edge of this wave as it tracks toward the Great Lakes Region. In regard to precipitation, expect snow to be the primary p-type as temperatures remain below freezing.
Nonetheless, ensemble guidance continues to favor a downward trend in regard to the chances for seeing greater than or equal to a tenth of QPF - with most only favoring a 10 to 20 percent chance at best.
So, all of this to say, that a quick round of light snow may occur heading into Sunday, with accumulations forecast to remain minimal at this time. Temperatures remain near seasonal normals.

Slightly sharper northwest flow develops into early next week, posing the potential for a clipper or two to drop southeast into the Northern Plains or Great Lakes early next week. For now, have opted to continue with dry PoPs as confidence concerning the track of these clippers remains low. Will continue to monitor trends in the coming days and adjust things as confidence increases. Otherwise, expect dry conditions and temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s to prevail for the remainder of the period.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail this TAF cycle. Expect W/SW Winds to become more southerly this afternoon, with sustained speeds around 10 to 15 MPH. Moisture starved cold front then dives across the region this evening, causing winds to shift back to the northwest overnight. Otherwise, look for a brief period of LLWS to be possible at KSUX shortly after sunset.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

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Sioux falls, SD,