Yankton, SD Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Yankton, SD

June 14, 2024 5:04 PM CDT (22:04 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:43 AM   Sunset 9:11 PM
Moonrise 12:56 PM   Moonset 12:52 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yankton, SD
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Area Discussion for - Sioux Falls, SD
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FXUS63 KFSD 141934 AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 234 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- While a few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible near and west of the James through the evening, a better chance for showers and storms moves through overnight into Saturday morning.
Only isolated severe storms are expected in south central SD.

- A few stronger to possibly severe storms will be possible in northwest IA and southwest MN late Saturday afternoon into the evening.

- Sunday night into Monday appears to be the better chance for more organized rain and thunderstorms with severe weather and heavy rain also more likely. Still some disagreement on where but starting to look like near and north of a Yankton to Spencer IA line.

- The pattern remains periodically active through the remainder of next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Mid to upper level moisture will increase through the afternoon and into the evening ahead of an upper level wave moving out of the Rockies. Initially, most of the area will see only the increase in clouds and the fairly deep 10-12 kft dry layer below this moisture provides no instability and makes and weak precipitation development aloft difficult to reach the ground. After about 03z moisture from the south begins to deepen as the wave moves onto the Plains. The instability remains fairly weak and elevated thus limiting any severe potential, but the strength of the wave and the availability of increasing mid level moisture should allow showers and thunderstorms to overspread the area. GEFS and EC ensemble support a very good (40-70% chance) for a half an inch or more of rain, with higher chances near and south of I-90.

The wave that will bring the overnight activity slowly moves through the area Saturday, which could leave a small corridor of instability across mainly northwest IA and southwest MN late Saturday afternoon and evening. Not a lot of model agreement on dissipating clouds and allowing heating in this area, so instability values are all over the place. A worst case scenario looks like maybe 1500-2000 J/kg CAPE and 20-30 knots of shear. So would be enough to support a hail and wind threat but likely remain isolated to scattered. With the wave in place Saturday eastern SD and northeast NE will likely see some scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity but it should not be severe.

Saturday night into Sunday weak mid and upper level ridging spreads across the area which should keep mainly quiet conditions in place.
Low pressure aloft deepens to the north with a front expected to slowly sag southward through the day. The environment ahead of this front becomes very unstable, but with a prominent cap in place not expecting any development. But with the strong cap in place and nearby boundary we may see some areas with dew points exceed 70 degrees, so starting to feel pretty humid. Better chances for this oppressive humidity will be northwest IA, southwest MN and far southeast SD.

Sunday night into Monday becomes very interesting as a boundary should be in place near the Missouri River in the low levels and a little farther north and west in the mid levels. As a right entrance region of the jet races into ND, a mid level wave is expected to eject into western NE and central SD. This should force some stronger southerly flow in the low levels and bring some strong forcing across the low and mid level front. The question then becomes just where along this front will activity try to develop.
Barring breaking the cap, the timing of the mid level wave suggests that development will be more likely after 3z, and if capping can hold from about 900 mb to the surface, capping looks much weaker in the 800-850mb layer. Even lifting from this level yields about 2000- 3000 J/kg CAPE with about 30 knots of shear so severe weather would become fairly likely in this environment. Likely not tornadoes but hail and wind. However if storms get going around 925 mb then a bit more shear and instability could support a more organized linear system. One other concern will be heavy rain. Mid and upper level flow will likely run normal to the low level boundary which would support training and with such deep instability and a warm cloud depth around 14000 feet some high rainfall rates will be likely.
Still a lot of unknowns right now, but later Sunday night into Monday definitely shows potential.

Tuesday through Friday remains active with southwest flow aloft and occasional mid level waves to trigger some activity. A lot to happen between now and then but for now Tuesday night into Wednesday and Friday appear to be the best chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into central SD early this afternoon, but struggle to progress east as dry air below about 12 kft does not support much in the way of showery activity. Later tonight, after about 3-6z, moisture in the mid levels as well as a little bit of instability should support the expansion of showers and thunderstorms which will gradually shift into southwest MN and northwest IA on Saturday morning.
LIngering showery activity will remain possible in eastern SD and northeast NE through Saturday morning. Some MVFR ceilings will be possible late tonight into Saturday morning.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KYKN CHAN GURNEY MUNI,SD 2 sm68 minE 0510 sm--82°F52°F35%30.05
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Sioux falls, SD,




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