Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kenmore, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 5:10PM Saturday January 18, 2020 12:55 AM EST (05:55 UTC) Moonrise 1:28AMMoonset 12:28PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 651 Pm Est Fri Jan 17 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow in the morning, then snow and sleet in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. Rain and snow.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow likely.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Snow showers likely.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. The water temperature off buffalo is 37 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:202001180430;;108393 FZUS51 KBUF 172351 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 651 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-180430-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenmore, NY
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location: 42.94, -78.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 180312 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1012 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will pass to the north of the area Saturday through Saturday night with widespread accumulating snow and gusty winds. The snow may briefly mix with sleet or rain across Western NY Saturday and Saturday evening before changing back to all snow later Saturday night. Locally heavy lake enhanced snow will then continue Sunday east of the lakes Sunday. Additional light to moderate lake effect snow will continue southeast of the lakes Sunday night through Monday as colder air pours into the eastern Great Lakes.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Lake effect clouds from earlier have finally faded away just in time to be replaced by increasing high clouds, thickest over western NY. Temps have fallen to into the lower teens over western NY, in the single digits above zero Genesee Valley to the Finger Lakes and well below zero to east of Lake Ontario. Expect these readings to slowly rise late as thicker mid clouds move in.

Looking at latest model and observations upstream led to keeping the forecast status quo as it still looked in good shape. Based on upstream radar and sfc obs, snow begins to reach ground about an hour after leading edge of higher reflectivities. Following modeled reflectivity and forecast soundings, snow still may sneak into Chautauqua county 10-11z/5-6AM but will hold off over rest of western NY til around daybreak or thereafter. Still an idea of subtle warm layer H85-H9 into southwest NY but it barely gets above 0c, so sleet still is very much in play as is occuring this evening along north edge of warm layer in IL and IN, or maybe we'll just end up with heavily rimed lower SLR snow. If warm layer is a bit more robust as 18z Canadian pointed to, some freezing rain is possible as sfc temps when this warm nose arrives late morning are still in the upper 20s to near 30F. In terms of snow amounts, we look good with general 2-3 inch amounts over western NY with a bit more upward movement to those numbers as you head toward Genesee valley and certainly toward the North Country where an all snow forecast remains on track. A low end of 1-2 inches seems possible in Buffalo metro if mixed precip is more of a factor earlier than later. Previous discussion follows:

A deep mid level trough will move from the Great Lakes Saturday to eastern Quebec by Sunday. Meanwhile a surface low will move across central lower Michigan Saturday, just north of Lake Ontario Saturday night, and then yield to secondary cyclogenesis just off the Maine coast Sunday. A surface low tracking to the north of our area presents a very challenging snow forecast, given the period of warming ahead of the low, dry slot, etc.

The most widespread snow will occur Saturday within the warm advection regime ahead of the system. A broad area of strong isentropic ascent will produce a 4-6 hour period of steady precipitation, developing in the morning across Western NY and reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region by early afternoon. Across Western NY, model guidance continues to suggest enough of a warm layer aloft to support the chance of some sleet mixing in briefly from late morning through mid afternoon. If sleet lasts for an extended period of time, it would bring down snow accumulations. By late in the afternoon, surface temperatures may become warm enough to change the snow to rain close to the Lake Erie shore, with southerly downslope winds warming temperatures into the mid to upper 30s. Farther east, precip type will remain all snow from about Wayne County eastward.

Snow accumulations through early Saturday evening will generally run 2-4 inches, perhaps a little higher across the southern Tug Hill as southerly upslope flow develops.

Saturday night the widespread precipitation will taper off across Western NY as a mid level dry slot moves into the area. This will produce a relative lull in precipitation coverage and amounts through most of Saturday night. Temperatures will also be above freezing for a time Saturday night, yielding a rain/snow mix across Western NY at lower elevations. Later Saturday night colder air will move back into Western NY, changing everything back to snow. The airmass will also become cold enough to begin lake enhancement across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie late Saturday night, with snowfall rates picking up across the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills late. Additional accumulations Saturday night will range from a few inches across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie, to little or nothing at lower elevations.

Meanwhile, east of Lake Ontario there will be less of a mid level dry slot, so there will be less of a break in precipitation Saturday night. Expect periods of snow to continue, especially across the Tug Hill supported by continued upslope flow. This will support additional accumulations of a few inches at lower elevations, and 3- 6 inches across the Tug Hill Plateau.

Sunday cold air will pour back into the eastern Great Lakes in the wake of the low. Boundary layer flow will be westerly most of the day, targeting areas east of the lakes with heavy lake enhanced snow. Lake induced equilibrium levels will climb to around 10K feet by late in the day as cold air deepens. Outside of the main lake effect areas, snow will be relatively light with minor accumulations.

East of Lake Ontario, it won't be pure lake effect, but rather lake enhanced upslope flow supporting the potential for heavy snow across the Tug Hill Plateau. This may produce additional accumulations of up to 5-7 inches across the Tug Hill, and a few inches at lower elevations. Later Sunday afternoon and evening boundary layer flow will begin to veer more northwesterly, diminishing the influence of lake enhancement across the Tug Hill.

East of Lake Erie, it will be a little more of a pure lake effect setup with less synoptic scale moisture and ascent. Deepening instability and upslope flow should support persistent moderate snow across the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and hills of Wyoming County Sunday, and continuing Sunday night for that matter. Additional accumulations during the day Sunday of 5-7 inches are possible, with more Sunday night.

Total accumulations from Saturday through late Sunday night will be highest across the higher terrain east of the lakes. East of Lake Erie, the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and hills of Wyoming County may see 12-18 inches total. The Tug Hill Plateau will see 12- 18 inches as well, with 7-10 inches for the surrounding lower elevations east of Lake Ontario. The Buffalo area should see 4-6 inches total over the entire weekend, but this will come in two batches with some melting between. Rochester may see 4-7 inches total in several batches with some melting between. The lowest snow amounts will be across Allegany County and the western Finger Lakes with little in the way of lake enhanced snow reaching these areas Sunday.

As far as headlines go, issued a Winter Storm Warning east of Lake Ontario where the most widespread heavy snow will occur. Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the rest of the area for Saturday through portions of Saturday night and Sunday morning. Also issued a Winter Storm Watch for the higher terrain east of Lake Erie for late Saturday night through early Monday morning for lake effect snow. Note, we are handling the potential for wind gusts to 50 mph within the winter weather advisories and warnings instead of issuing separate wind advisory headlines.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Upper trough settles across Lower Great Lakes and New England into Monday. Shortwave sliding through the base of trough will bring a secondary low-level trough across the region on Sunday night. The trough and enhanced low-level convergence along with moisture from the shortwave and sufficient over-water instability with H85 temps down to -15c will support widespread snow showers and flurries most of Sunday night transitioning to light lake effect snow showers and flurries on Monday. Expect similar behavior to the lake effect for nw flow areas Sunday night off both lakes with 4-6kft inversions and a lot of the DGZ in that lake convective layer. Where snow showers are persistent could see additional 2-4 inches of snow Sunday night centered on the Chautauqua Ridge off Lake Erie and also downstream of southeast Lake Ontario centered in Oswego county. Elsewhere closer to the lakes, expect less than 2 inches of snow on Sunday night.

Monday into Tuesday, we'll firmly settle into a nw flow light lake effect regime as inversions lower below 3kft but temps at the top of inversion stay around -15c. Regime will be very similar to what has occurred in the last 12-18 hours, so high pops and low qpf though a couple fluffy inches of snow could still occur each 12 hour period in persistent snow showers with all DGZ in the lake convective layer. Other than the lake effect, expect plenty of clouds with off and on flurries. Only drier and colder exception will be over the northern portions of the North Country with less flow off the lake and more so off Canada. Min temps there on Monday night and Tuesday night should drop below zero with associated wind chills down to 20 below zero.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Cold air should finally dislodge on Wednesday as ridging spreads across the eastern CONUS. Eventually we'll find a warmer southwest flow at the sfc returning by late in the week. Dry weather expected throughout as primary storm track will stay well northwest of here. High temps start out around normal on Wednesday but will rise above normal into the mid 30s Thursday and the lower 40s Friday. Next chance of rain will likely arrive by next weekend.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Conditions remain VFR rest of tonight under increasing mid clouds as weekend weather system approaches. Conditions will deteriorate to mainly MVFR cigs and mainly IFR vsby on Saturday from west to east as snow and possibly wintry mix (western NY) slide across the region. Though similar flying conditions will persist into Saturday night, the wintry mix of rain/snow may expand across much of the area during the evening (does stay all snow at ART though), before changing back to snow and blowing snow late Saturday night. Strong and gusty southwest winds to 40 kts are expected on Saturday night, strongest at IAG, BUF and ROC.

Outlook .

Sunday through Tuesday . MVFR/IFR due to lake effect snows and blowing snow east of the lakes. Wednesday . MVFR improving to VFR as lake effect snows peter out.

MARINE. A moderately strong area of low pressure will pass just north of Lakes Erie and Ontario Saturday afternoon and night. The passage of the low is favorable for the development of gales on Lakes Erie and Ontario from Saturday night through early Sunday morning, with sustained winds peaking at or just over 35 knots on both lakes. This will be a relatively short gale, with winds diminishing through the day Sunday and becoming more northwest.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Strong winds developing Saturday night into Sunday may bring another round of lakeshore flooding to Lake Ontario. The combination of high lake levels, strong onshore westerly winds, and high waves may produce some lakeshore flooding in bays and inlets at the east end of Lake Ontario impacting lakeshore areas of Jefferson and Oswego counties.

A seiche may also develop on Lake Erie Saturday night through Sunday morning as winds rapidly become southwest and increase to gale force. This may produce flooding in bays and inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. Water may spray across Route 5 in Hamburg.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ012-019-020-085. Lakeshore Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for NYZ010-019-085. Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning for NYZ012-019-020-085. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ006>008. Lakeshore Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for NYZ006-007. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for NYZ004-005. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 9 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001>003-010-011. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for NYZ013-014-021. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041. Gale Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday for LOZ030. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for LOZ043>045- 063>065. Gale Warning from 11 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042-062.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM . JLA LONG TERM . JLA AVIATION . Hitchcock/JLA MARINE . Hitchcock TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 5 mi62 min 17°F 37°F1037.8 hPa-3°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 13 mi62 min 16°F 1038 hPa
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi62 min 18°F 1037 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 28 mi56 min ESE 6 G 8.9 16°F 1040.3 hPa (-2.0)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 41 mi56 min E 6 G 6 20°F 1037.8 hPa (-2.5)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY6 mi62 minE 410.00 miOvercast17°F7°F64%1039.4 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY13 mi63 minESE 810.00 miFair15°F9°F77%1040.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12
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NW12NW9N8NW11N6N8N11N9N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5E7E7E5E4
1 day agoW4W6W12W11W16
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2 days agoW10
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W8W11W11W6W4W3W3SW10SW9SW7W7Calm3NE8NE7E12E9E9E8E5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.