Saturday, October19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kenmore, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:28PM Saturday October 19, 2019 3:40 PM EDT (19:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:28PMMoonset 12:10PM Illumination 64% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 141 Pm Edt Sat Oct 19 2019
This afternoon..Light and variable winds. Sunny.
Tonight..East winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy.
Sunday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny.
Sunday night..Light and variable winds. Mainly clear.
Monday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely Monday night.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain during the day, then showers likely Tuesday night.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day. The water temperature off buffalo is 58 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201910192115;;952974 FZUS51 KBUF 191741 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-192115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenmore, NY
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location: 42.94, -78.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 191828
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
228 pm edt Sat oct 19 2019

Synopsis
Splindid weather for viewing the peak of the fall foliage continues
as high pressure passing to our east will provide us with us with
fair dry weather through Monday. The pleasant weather will be
accompanied by day to day warming with temperatures climbing as high
as the lower 70s across the western counties for Monday. A dramatic
change back to more seasonable fall weather will then take place for
the remainder of the week.

Near term through Sunday
A bit of fair weather CU earlier but skies have become sunny across
the region this afternoon. After a frosty start which likely ended
the growing season for all but a select few locations, temps have
reached the 50s this afternoon. High pressure remains over the
region tonight into Sunday. May see some mid to high clouds
associated with remnants of post tropical system nestor clipping
finger lakes later tonight into Sunday morning. Does appear that
rain with this system should stay over far southeast ny toward nyc
and long island. Weak return flow and some clouds tonight will allow
temps tonight to be warmer than last night with mainly lower 40s
expected. Favored cold spots could see readings into the upper 30s,
with even lower 30s east of lake ontario closer to the sfc high
axis.

Skies will start off mainly sunny on Sunday, but mid to high clouds
will begin to increase in the afternoon over western ny as shortwave
trough swings across the upper great lakes. Will also see the clouds
over the east slowly depart through the morning. Increasing h9-h85
temps will result in high temps reaching the lower to middle 60s,
with readings around 60f east of lake ontario.

Short term Sunday night through Wednesday
Sunday night, our region will remain under the influence of the
surface high extending from james bay south and east across new york
state. Meanwhile, our next weather maker will be in the process of
exiting the rocky mountains and beginning to track east across the
upper midwest. Otherwise, with the surface high influencing our
weather expect generally clear skies and light wind flow overnight.

This will also allow for good radiational cooling to take place with
some river valley fog formation. Look for lows in the lower 40s
inland away from the lakes with mid to upper 40s along the lake
plains.

Low pressure will then track out of the upper midwest and arrive
across lake superior by late in the day on Monday. As this feature
tracks into the upper great lakes warm advection processes and
southerly flow will pick up across the forecast area. This will aid
in sending our temperatures up well above normal with upper 60s to
the lower 70s across the lake plains. Overall, it should be a fine
fall day across the area with plentiful sunshine expected for a good
portion of the day. It will make for a perfect day to get out and go
see the fall foliage, especially to go see letchworth state park
which is near or at peak.

The surface low over lake superior will slowly drift northward into
southeast ontario canada and mature Monday night. As it does so, it
will slowly pivot its trailing front into and then slowly east
across new york state. As the front crosses the forecast area it
will bring an area of widespread rainfall to the area for a good
portion of the day Tuesday. In regards to rainfall amounts, most
locations should expect to see rainfall totals come in just under an
inch. Behind the front, widespread rainfall will taper off along
with winds veering around to southwest. Also, over the course of the
day h850t will cool and are forecast to drop per ECMWF gfs NAM from
+12c to ~+2 3c by Tuesday evening.

The steadier precipitation should all be in the process of winding
down for our forecast area by early Tuesday night. Behind the front,
the atmospheric column will continue to cool. This in combination
with the broad mid level trough wrapping additional moisture in
across the lower lakes will support lake effect showers northeast of
both lakes. However, it will only be a brief window for lake driven
rain showers given the fact that synoptic moisture gets quickly
stripped away and equilibrium levels drop by Wednesday. With that
said, this event or setup will be somewhat similar to last
Wednesday. In that event some lightning and graupel was observed
within the stronger rain showers. Current bufkit forecast profiles
do show lake induced equilibrium levels climbing to near 21k for
this next event. Additionally, the depth from the surface to -10c
will be nearing 10k, which is another key ingredient. So it's not
out of the realm of possibility that some of the stronger showers
will again be able to produce lightning and graupel. Stay tuned!
behind the front it will be markedly cooler with highs by Wednesday
expected to only top out in the 50s.

Long term Wednesday night through Friday
Looking further out into the latter portions of next week... The
medium range guidance becomes increasingly divergent for Thursday
and Friday... With the GFS gem both still showing another weak to
modest trough crossing the area on Thursday followed by high
pressure on Friday... While the ECMWF keeps high pressure and dry
weather over our area on Thursday... Before bringing a notably
stronger system into our area during Friday. Given the resulting
forecast uncertainty... For now have kept a mix of slight chance to
lower-end chance pops in play for these two days.

With respect to temperatures... These should remain relatively close
to late october normals through this period... With the coolest
conditions expected on Wednesday in the wake of the preceding day's
cold front. Depending upon the strength and timing of the late week
system... At least some semblance of warmup appears possible between
Thursday and Saturday.

Aviation 19z Saturday through Thursday
Looking at ideal flying weather through Sunday withVFR conditions
and light winds. Think scattered to broken incoming high clouds may
limit fog coverage in the southern tier, so have no mention at jhw
tonight.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... MVFR with areas of rain and fog.

Wednesday... MVFR toVFR with scattered lake effect rain showers
northeast of lakes erie and ontario.

Thursday...VFR.

Marine
As surface high moves across new england through Sunday... A weak
pressure gradient will remain in place across the lower great lakes.

This will maintain light winds and negligible waves through the
remainder of the weekend.

East to southeast winds will begin to freshen on Monday... Well ahead
of a slow moving cold front that will be crossing the mid-western
states.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jla rsh
near term... Jla
short term... Ar
long term... Hitchcock jjr
aviation... Jla rsh
marine... Rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 5 mi53 min NNW 4.1 G 7 55°F 58°F1015.7 hPa30°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 13 mi59 min 56°F 1016 hPa
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi59 min 55°F 1015.3 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 28 mi101 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 52°F 60°F1016.1 hPa (-2.1)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 28 mi41 min ENE 15 G 18 52°F 1016.9 hPa (-2.4)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 41 mi41 min NNE 13 G 15 54°F 1014.7 hPa (-3.1)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 42 mi101 min E 7.8 G 12 51°F 58°F1 ft1016.8 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY6 mi47 minVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds56°F39°F53%1015.9 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY13 mi48 minENE 410.00 miFair57°F39°F53%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5SW9SW10SW3S4SE4S4S4CalmE4CalmCalmCalmSE4S3SE5SE3E4CalmCalmCalmSW3Calm3
1 day agoNW14
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NW13NW11NW7W11NW7W6W7W8W9W7NW5N10NW9NW8NW10NW8W7
2 days agoS11--SW3SW10SW7W5W8W10W10W11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.