Monday, March30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kenmore, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:41PM Monday March 30, 2020 3:15 PM EDT (19:15 UTC) Moonrise 9:27AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 42% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 643 Am Edt Mon Mar 30 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am edt this morning...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers early, then rain showers from late morning on.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest less than 10 knots. Rain showers likely in the evening, then a chance of rain showers overnight.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming northeast around 10 knots. A chance of rain showers in the morning.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Partly cloudy.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Partly cloudy.
Friday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Partly cloudy. The water temperature off buffalo is 38 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:202003301515;;299652 FZUS51 KBUF 301043 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 643 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-301515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenmore, NY
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location: 42.94, -78.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 301826 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 226 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will slowly cross the region tonight before moving off the New England coast Tuesday. This will produce widespread rain showers through tonight, which may mix with some wet snow later tonight especially across higher terrain. Showers will decrease in coverage Tuesday as the system moves away. Mainly dry weather will then return for Wednesday through the end of the week with slowly warming temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Radar imagery showing widespread showers and light rain across the region this afternoon, with a few small embedded pockets of moderate rain. The rain will remain fairly widespread through the rest of the afternoon and evening with temperatures remaining steady in the low to mid 40s in most locations, and upper 40s southeast of Lake Ontario.

Vertically stacked low pressure over the Algonquin Highlands of southern Ontario this afternoon will move southeast across central and eastern NY tonight before weakening further and moving off the New England coast Tuesday. Deep synoptic scale moisture and periods of ascent from vorticity maxima orbiting the closed low will continue to support widespread showers through tonight. The synoptic scale forcing will be augmented by marginal lake enhancement as the airmass grows colder aloft, and also by upslope flow across the higher terrain east and southeast of both lakes. Precipitation will be all rain through this evening, with some wet snow then mixing in across higher terrain late tonight through early Tuesday. There may be a slushy coating of snow on the grass across the highest terrain. Across lower elevations rain will still be the predominant precipitation type, although a few wet flakes may mix in at times very late tonight and early Tuesday. Lows will reach the mid to upper 30s on the lake plains, and lower 30s across higher terrain.

The coverage of precipitation will quickly diminish from late morning through the afternoon Tuesday as the closed low continues to weaken and move away from the region. By mid to late afternoon most areas should be dry, with just a few isolated to widely scattered showers left from the western Southern Tier to the western Finger Lakes. Expect highs in the low to mid 40s in most locations.

Tuesday night most locations will remain dry, with just a few isolated to widely scattered showers possible across the western Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes near a weak mid level trough axis which will be the remnants of the weakening closed low. Weak northeast upslope flow will likely allow plenty of cloud cover to remain across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, with clearing more likely for the North Country and areas along the south shore of Lake Ontario where dry air from southern Ontario will begin to advect southward. Lows will drop into the lower 30s in most locations, with mid to upper 20s for the North Country.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A broad upper level low across Southern New England on Wednesday will gradually move east off into the Atlantic through Friday. Meanwhile, an elongated ridge of high pressure across central CONUS will gradually build eastward across our region during the period. This will establish a cool, but mainly dry, pattern with a weak flow and minimal dynamic forcing. The upper level low will maintain quite a bit of moisture and clouds, especially across eastern portions of the forecast area. There might be a stray rain or snow shower east of Lake Ontario as weak vorticity maxes pivot around the back of the upper low.

This will maintain cool weather for Wednesday and Thursday with 850mb temperatures around -6C supporting daytime highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. The surface high will finally build across our region on Friday, providing a bit more sunshine and warmer weather with highs in the lower to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Ridging at the surface and aloft will remain across our region through Saturday. Expect pleasant weather on Saturday, due to a gradual warming trend and a bit more sunshine. 12z model consensus has trended slightly slower will the passage of a weak cold front or wave, which will extend from low pressure tracking into Georgian Bay. This weak boundary is expected to move across the area on Sunday, bringing a small chance of showers with its passage. Then some model guidance shows a diffuse shortwave crossing our region on Monday. Given model differences will carry rather uniform low chance PoPs across the region on Sunday and Monday. The jet stream will remain to our north and keep any real cold air trapped well into Canada. As a result, temperatures will still average slightly above normal on Monday, even on the 'cold' side of the front.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Widespread showers and areas of light rain will continue through the rest of the afternoon and through most of tonight. VSBY will be a mix of VFR and MVFR in the showers, with MVFR more prevalent in areas of persistent rain. CIGS will continue to slowly lower through the afternoon, with MVFR becoming widespread at lower elevations and IFR across higher terrain. CIGS will lower further overnight through early Tuesday morning, with IFR becoming widespread across the lower and higher elevations of Western NY, and MVFR across the lower elevations east of Lake Ontario. The low stratus may intersect some of the higher hills of the Southern Tier tonight through early Tuesday morning, with hilltop fog and mountain obscuration developing.

Showers will decrease in coverage on Tuesday, with most areas becoming mainly dry by afternoon outside of a few isolated showers from the Southern Tier into the western Finger Lakes. CIGS in low stratus will begin to improve during the afternoon, with higher elevations improving from IFR to MVFR, and lower elevations near the lakeshores improving to VFR.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Saturday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Moderate southwest winds on Lake Erie this afternoon will begin to diminish by early evening, allowing winds and waves to drop below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds will then become light overnight through Tuesday morning on both lakes. Northeast winds will increase on Lake Ontario from mid morning through the afternoon on Tuesday. Winds and waves should stay below Small Craft Advisory levels, but choppy conditions will develop along the south shore. The northeast winds may increase further Tuesday night through early Wednesday, and may support a period of Small Craft conditions along the south shore of Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . Apffel LONG TERM . Apffel AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 5 mi45 min SW 19 G 22 40°F 48°F1012.9 hPa30°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 13 mi45 min 43°F 1012 hPa
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi45 min 1012.5 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 28 mi15 min SW 8.9 G 13 46°F 1012.5 hPa (+1.0)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 41 mi15 min WSW 25 G 29 40°F 1012.7 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY6 mi21 minSW 18 G 2410.00 miLight Rain and Breezy42°F37°F82%1012.6 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY13 mi22 minSW 13 G 1910.00 miOvercast44°F39°F83%1012.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW17SW21
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1 day agoE7E10NE7E8NE7NE8NE9NE8NE8NE10E8NE6NE6E5E8E6SE8SE9S8S16
G20
S23
G32
S19
G27
S20
G29
SW11
2 days agoNE43N8NE10NE8NE7NE6E6E7E8E6E5E5E6E6E4SE4SE6E9SE10E7E11E11E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.