Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Skaneateles, NY
February 18, 2025 8:56 PM EST (01:56 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 6:56 AM Sunset 5:43 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 9:18 AM |
LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 931 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2025
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning - .
Rest of today - West winds to 30 knots. Occasional lake effect snow late this morning, then lake effect snow this afternoon. Waves 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Tonight - West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 9 to 13 feet subsiding to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Wednesday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday night - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 5 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers Saturday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
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Area Discussion for Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 190118 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 818 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
Lake effect snow will continue tonight over the NY Thruway corridor with additional significant accumulations expected. A weak wave of low pressure will bring a chance for light snow on Thursday. Much quieter conditions with gradually warming temperatures for the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
640 PM Update...
Still watching the lake effect snow band over Oneida county.
Boundary layer winds will begin to become more northwesterly as a mid level shortwave drops south this evening. This band has been mighty stubborn though so confidence in a strong organized band dropping into northern Onondaga and Madison counties is waning but lake effect warnings have been left up for now.
245 PM update...
Main concerns in the near term are focused on the continuing threat of heavy lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario today, tonight and eventually tapering off on Wednesday...along with another night of cold temperatures and gusty winds tonight.
Winds subside Wednesday night but temperatures remain on the cool side.
Broad cyclonic flow across a large portion of eastern Canada and the northern US will persist through tonight and into Wednesday. Very cold Arctic air that has dropped south will persist over the Great Lakes and Northeast US and combine with favorable W/NW flow which will allow the lake effect snow east and southeast of Lake Ontario to continue tonight and into Wed morning.
The challenge with this forecast will be the position of the broad diffuse band of lake effect snow, currently situated mainly over Oswego and Oneida Counties...and has been most of the day today. Prior forecasts brought this band to the south this afternoon, but that has yet to materialize. Current model guidance has this band remaining in its current location for the next 2 to 4 hours before the upper short wave swings through and changes the wind trajectory to more northwesterly, and drops the band to the south.
The band dropping south should coincide with some organization and potential intensification of the snowfall rates for a period of time this evening as it moves into southern Oswego and northern Onondaga and northern Madison Counties. Snowfall rates up to 1-2 inches per hour are not out of the question.
Winds will also still be quite gusty through this evening with gusts as high as 30 mph which will induce blowing and drifting snow. Visibilities could be reduced to a quarter mile or less at times.
There is some question about how the lake band progresses and changes in magnitude Wed morning. Most of the guidance (which hasn't been exactly stellar recently) dissipates the lake band around or just before sunrise, but given the continued influx of cold air and the lack of an ending 850mb ridge axis, there was some thought to extending the Lake Effect Snow Warning through 12 pm Wed, but will wait and see how the guidance evolves if this is needed. Either way, the lake snow is expected to slowly taper off through the day Wed and eventually end late Wed or Wed night. Weather conditions will be quiet Wed night.
The other concern will be the cold wind chill values tonight over northeast PA. The threshold for Wind Chill Advisory is -10 for Wyoming, Lackawanna, Luzerne, southern Wayne and Pike Counties in ne PA, and it appears that most of the higher terrain locations will see winds around 10 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph which will drop wind chills to -10 to -15 deg. The lower elevations, especially in the Wyoming Valley will experience weaker winds and wind chills only to around -5 deg.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
325 PM Update...
An upper level low will be moving across the area Thursday bringing a period of light snow, especially from late morning on. Snowfall amounts look to be pretty light in nature, generally a coating to an inch with localized amounts up to two inches possible. As this system departs to the east, northwest flow setting back up across the Great Lakes will lead to the return of scattered lake effect snow showers Thursday night through Friday night across CNY, the Catskills and perhaps into the northern tier of PA. The rest of NE PA is expected to be partly to mostly sunny on Friday. High temperatures will continue to be below average Thursday and Friday with highs in the teens and 20s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
325 PM Update...
High pressure building in Saturday from the southwest will bring an end to any remaining lake effect snow showers and flurries. With winds becoming westerly and weak ridging building in aloft, it won't be quite as cold for the afternoon with highs ranging from the mid 20s to the mid 30s in some valley locations. A weak, quick-moving system may lead to the chance of a few snow showers on Sunday, then largely dry conditions are expected on Monday as high pressure briefly builds back in. A clipper system can lead to a chance of snow showers Monday night into Tuesday.
Temperatures are expected to continue trending upward Sunday into early next week with highs Sunday in the upper 20s to upper 30s in some valleys, and mid 30s to low 40s Monday and Tuesday.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LIFR and IFR restrictions with a band of snow are over KRME now and still look to reach KSYR later this evening. Although the timing appears to be delayed from earlier thinking. Toward morning, some improvement in restrictions is possible for KSYR and KRME. Continued west to northwest wind gusts with top gusts around 20 knots and VFR at all other TAF sites.
Outlook...
Wed night...On and off restrictions in slowly diminishing lake effect snow showers at KSYR and KRME.
Thursday...More snow showers possible with associated restrictions.
Friday...Lingering lake effect snow showers possible with associated restrictions for CNY terminals. Otherwise mainly VFR.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. Possibly some lake effect snow showers.
Sunday...Low probability of restrictions due to light snow moving through.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ009- 018-036-037.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 818 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
Lake effect snow will continue tonight over the NY Thruway corridor with additional significant accumulations expected. A weak wave of low pressure will bring a chance for light snow on Thursday. Much quieter conditions with gradually warming temperatures for the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
640 PM Update...
Still watching the lake effect snow band over Oneida county.
Boundary layer winds will begin to become more northwesterly as a mid level shortwave drops south this evening. This band has been mighty stubborn though so confidence in a strong organized band dropping into northern Onondaga and Madison counties is waning but lake effect warnings have been left up for now.
245 PM update...
Main concerns in the near term are focused on the continuing threat of heavy lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario today, tonight and eventually tapering off on Wednesday...along with another night of cold temperatures and gusty winds tonight.
Winds subside Wednesday night but temperatures remain on the cool side.
Broad cyclonic flow across a large portion of eastern Canada and the northern US will persist through tonight and into Wednesday. Very cold Arctic air that has dropped south will persist over the Great Lakes and Northeast US and combine with favorable W/NW flow which will allow the lake effect snow east and southeast of Lake Ontario to continue tonight and into Wed morning.
The challenge with this forecast will be the position of the broad diffuse band of lake effect snow, currently situated mainly over Oswego and Oneida Counties...and has been most of the day today. Prior forecasts brought this band to the south this afternoon, but that has yet to materialize. Current model guidance has this band remaining in its current location for the next 2 to 4 hours before the upper short wave swings through and changes the wind trajectory to more northwesterly, and drops the band to the south.
The band dropping south should coincide with some organization and potential intensification of the snowfall rates for a period of time this evening as it moves into southern Oswego and northern Onondaga and northern Madison Counties. Snowfall rates up to 1-2 inches per hour are not out of the question.
Winds will also still be quite gusty through this evening with gusts as high as 30 mph which will induce blowing and drifting snow. Visibilities could be reduced to a quarter mile or less at times.
There is some question about how the lake band progresses and changes in magnitude Wed morning. Most of the guidance (which hasn't been exactly stellar recently) dissipates the lake band around or just before sunrise, but given the continued influx of cold air and the lack of an ending 850mb ridge axis, there was some thought to extending the Lake Effect Snow Warning through 12 pm Wed, but will wait and see how the guidance evolves if this is needed. Either way, the lake snow is expected to slowly taper off through the day Wed and eventually end late Wed or Wed night. Weather conditions will be quiet Wed night.
The other concern will be the cold wind chill values tonight over northeast PA. The threshold for Wind Chill Advisory is -10 for Wyoming, Lackawanna, Luzerne, southern Wayne and Pike Counties in ne PA, and it appears that most of the higher terrain locations will see winds around 10 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph which will drop wind chills to -10 to -15 deg. The lower elevations, especially in the Wyoming Valley will experience weaker winds and wind chills only to around -5 deg.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
325 PM Update...
An upper level low will be moving across the area Thursday bringing a period of light snow, especially from late morning on. Snowfall amounts look to be pretty light in nature, generally a coating to an inch with localized amounts up to two inches possible. As this system departs to the east, northwest flow setting back up across the Great Lakes will lead to the return of scattered lake effect snow showers Thursday night through Friday night across CNY, the Catskills and perhaps into the northern tier of PA. The rest of NE PA is expected to be partly to mostly sunny on Friday. High temperatures will continue to be below average Thursday and Friday with highs in the teens and 20s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
325 PM Update...
High pressure building in Saturday from the southwest will bring an end to any remaining lake effect snow showers and flurries. With winds becoming westerly and weak ridging building in aloft, it won't be quite as cold for the afternoon with highs ranging from the mid 20s to the mid 30s in some valley locations. A weak, quick-moving system may lead to the chance of a few snow showers on Sunday, then largely dry conditions are expected on Monday as high pressure briefly builds back in. A clipper system can lead to a chance of snow showers Monday night into Tuesday.
Temperatures are expected to continue trending upward Sunday into early next week with highs Sunday in the upper 20s to upper 30s in some valleys, and mid 30s to low 40s Monday and Tuesday.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LIFR and IFR restrictions with a band of snow are over KRME now and still look to reach KSYR later this evening. Although the timing appears to be delayed from earlier thinking. Toward morning, some improvement in restrictions is possible for KSYR and KRME. Continued west to northwest wind gusts with top gusts around 20 knots and VFR at all other TAF sites.
Outlook...
Wed night...On and off restrictions in slowly diminishing lake effect snow showers at KSYR and KRME.
Thursday...More snow showers possible with associated restrictions.
Friday...Lingering lake effect snow showers possible with associated restrictions for CNY terminals. Otherwise mainly VFR.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. Possibly some lake effect snow showers.
Sunday...Low probability of restrictions due to light snow moving through.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ009- 018-036-037.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 36 mi | 56 min | NW 27G | 19°F | 30.18 | 17°F |
Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSYR
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSYR
Wind History Graph: SYR
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of north east
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Binghamton, NY,

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