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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 409 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers through early afternoon, then rain showers likely late. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of rain and light snow during the day, then a chance of rain showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 042041 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 341 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Lake effect rain showers will transition to snow showers overnight, resulting in light accumulations over portions of Central New York by Tuesday morning. A weak disturbance will bring additional snow showers Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Temperatures will trend colder through midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
330 PM Update...

Westerly flow is keeping lake effect precipitation bands oriented west to east across the region. Temperatures are in the mid 30s to upper 40s, so most of what is falling should be rain, though it's possible snow is beginning to mix in. As temperatures trend cooler this evening and tonight, the rain transitions to a mix and then snow tonight. The higher elevations will see this transition occur earlier than valley locations. Precipitation bands become transient overnight as flow transitions out of the northwest, eventually settling over mainly the Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley. Light snow accumulations are expected overnight with localized totals of 1 to 2 inches possible north of the Southern Tier. Model soundings do show some locations briefly drying out in the DGZ, which would then lead to freezing drizzle. While not expected, trace amounts of ice accumulation cannot be ruled out on cold, untreated surfaces.
Temperatures overnight will fall into the mid 20s to low 30s.

A couple passing shortwaves will support additional lake effect snow showers Tuesday, mainly over the eastern Finger Lakes. Light accumulations will be possible though totals should be less than a half inch and mainly limited to higher elevation locations.
Unfortunately, lake clouds will stick around and keeps skies cloudy.
Temperatures will max out in the 30s, with valley locations pushing 40s. An upper-level trough will move through, kicking off scattered lake effect snow showers Tuesday night. Light accumulations will once again be possible, this time across the Finger Lakes and portions of the Southern Tier. Totals are not expected to exceed a half inch. Temperatures Tuesday night will fall into the 20s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
340 PM Update...

Leftover snow showers from a shortwave that will move through the forecast area Tuesday will linger over Central NY through Wednesday. Another shortwave will develop over the Great Lakes region overnight Wednesday and move through the area Thursday, bringing chances for lake-enhanced showers across the majority of Central NY and into NE PA. These showers will start as snow before temperatures warm up slightly through the day, causing the transition from snow showers in the morning to a mix of rain and snow showers heading into Thursday afternoon. Chances for showers will decrease through the afternoon, and as temperatures begin to decrease heading into the evening, showers will transition to mostly snow, and remain mostly in the northern portions of Central NY through the early night hours.

Heading into Friday, high pressure will build over the forecast area as a ridge moves in. High temperatures will increase from the mid-30s Thursday to mid- to high-40s for Friday, and little to no precipitation chances are expected.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
340 PM Update...

The next bigger system originating from the Mid-West area approaches the forecast area heading into the weekend. Deep southerly flow from ahead of the system will continue to increase temperatures for the weekend, increasing from the high-40s/low-50s Saturday to the low- to mid-50s Sunday.
Southerly wind gusts will begin to increase overnight Saturday and into Sunday. Currently, peak wind gusts look to occur heading into Sunday night, with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph. More frequent wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are more likely to occur throughout Sunday.

With temperatures being as warm as they will be over the weekend, the frontal boundary from this upcoming system will bring stratiform rain across the forecast area Sunday.
Precipitation chances begin to increase overnight Saturday, and begin to slowly taper downward through the very end of the long- term forecast period. The most likely time period for the heaviest rainfall will occur in the daytime Sunday. Since this system is far out in time, discrepancies in timing and strength of this system could vary as we get closer to the event.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
18Z Update...
Scattered lake effect precipitation will impact the CNY terminals this afternoon. As the low-level winds become more northwesterly late this evening, SYR will have the best chance for lake effect snow showers. ITH and BGM could see some light snow showers/flurries as well, but confidence was too low to include. Ceiling restrictions will vary from VFR to Fuel Alt this afternoon but should settle in the MVFR/Fuel Alt categories this evening. IFR ceilings will be possible for a few hours overnight at ITH. AVP will get back to VFR around midday Tuesday while the NY terminals will remain in MVFR restrictions.

West to northwest winds will remain breezy through most of the overnight hours with peak gusts between 15 and 20 kts, though a couple rogue gusts could be higher this afternoon. Winds will generally become less gusty early Tuesday morning but sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts are expected.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...Occasional ceiling restrictions possible with scattered snow showers, mainly at the Central NY terminals. Rain could mix in during afternoon hours.

Wednesday Night through Thursday evening...Mainly VFR Wednesday night, but a passing clipper system Thursday could yield brief shot of light snow and associated restrictions.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Low chance for rain showers and associated restrictions at NY terminals.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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