Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Skaneateles, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A 1005mb coastal low centered just southeast of Atlantic City NJ will continue spinning, nearly stationary into the early evening hours. This will bring on and off periods of light rain and drizzle to much of the forecast area through at least sunset. Additional rainfall amounts will be light, under a quarter inch. The low then weakens and starts spinning south/east off the DELMARVA coast overnight, moving well east of Cape Hatteras, NC by Tuesday morning.
The upper level (500mb) low also spins east toward morning.
Overnight, it remains cloudy with patchy drizzle/mist/fog and light showers still around, especially for east-central portions of the CWA Cool north-northeast winds continue and lows dip into the 40s.

Tuesday feature mainly cloudy skies are the coastal/upper level low only gradually drifts east, and north-northwest flow develops behind it. Think there will be at least some occasional breaks of sun at times, especially by the afternoon hours. This allows for warmer temperatures reaching into the 60s areawide. Partly cloudy, seasonably and quiet weather is expected Tuesday night, as upper level ridging briefing builds into the area.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A backdoor front sweeps in from the north during the day on Wednesday, as 850mb temperatures fall from around +7C at 8 AM, to around +1C late in the day. This frontal feature will bring a drier air mass into the area from the north, with clouds expected to decrease through the day. Cooler with highs in the 50s (except low 60s Wyoming Valley). The north wind will be breezy as well, between 8-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph in the afternoon. Cool and mostly clear Wednesday night and Thursday as the high builds in from the west
lows dip down into 30s areawide
except upper 20s for northern Oneida county and the high elevation valleys of the Catskills.
Thursday is shaping up to be sunny, breezy and cool once again with an upper level trough in place northeast of the area over northern New England. This trough of low pressure keeps the pressure gradient in place for the breezy north winds. By Thursday night the surface high builds overhead or just west of the forecast area. This should allow boundary layer winds to decouple, and with clear skies temperatures will plummet between 25 to 35F for overnight lows areawide. If confidence in this scenario continue to increase in the coming days frost and/or freeze headlines may very well be needed for the remaining active growing season zones (northern Finger Lakes and Wyoming Valley).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
This period should start off with generally quiet weather Friday and Saturday as an upper level ridge approaches the region from the west. A surface warm front is progged to push north Friday evening into Friday night, associated with a well organized low pressure system center over Central Manitoba. This warm front could bring a few light showers along with some clouds to the area. It looks like Central NY and Northeast PA will be well into the warm sector on Saturday, with partly sunny conditions and warm temperatures around 70 in the afternoon. There are still some timing differences in the model guidance, but it seems the next low and cold front will move through the area sometime Sunday into next Monday...bringing with it another round of rain. Temperatures look to remain warm on Sunday, with a cool down arriving by next Monday...if current timing holds.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Early season Nor-Easter continues to bring low clouds and some light rain/drizzle to our region. This will lead to mostly MVFR conditions, with periods of IFR possible at ELM, BGM and AVP.
IFR ceilings will eventually to lift to MVFR tomorrow morning before coming back to VFR late tomorrow afternoon/evening as high pressure starts to build into the region.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance of valley fog each morning.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.