Tuesday, March2, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
University at Buffalo, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:07PM Tuesday March 2, 2021 6:16 PM EST (23:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:20PMMoonset 8:49AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 945 Am Est Tue Mar 2 2021
This afternoon..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Becoming partly to mostly Sunny.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Partly cloudy.
Saturday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers. The water temperature off buffalo is 33 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:202103022215;;362233 FZUS51 KBUF 021445 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 945 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-022215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near University at Buffalo, NY
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location: 42.99, -78.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 021929 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 229 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

SYNOPSIS. Breezy tonight with snow showers east of Lake Ontario. Snow showers will continue east of Lake Ontario Wednesday. A few inches are possible on the Tug Hill Plateau tonight through Wednesday. A brief warm up is expected Wednesday before colder air returns for the remainder of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Mostly sunny and cold today as high pressure over Ohio passes by to our south. Temps will top out in the upper 20s to low 30s across western NY and the upper teens to low 20s east of Lake Ontario.

A warm front will approach the region tonight. Clouds will increase mainly across Lake Ontario and the North Country this evening while most of western NY stays mostly clear. A strong westerly 50-60 kt low level jet will move across the region tonight. Southwest winds at the surface will also increase with surface temperatures rising overnight. Stable conditions under warm air advection should keep the strongest winds elevated however it will still get breezy overnight with the strongest winds from Lake Erie northeast across the Niagara Frontier to the City of Rochester. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph are possible. Lesser winds south and east of this region.

Moisture will be confined to the warm front with light snow moving into the northern Tug Hill region this evening. There should be a break as the snow moves east before snow moves back across the entire Tug Hill region as an approaching shortwave trough and surface trough move south from the Ottawa Valley. Minor accumulations expected with 1-3 inches possible on the Tug Hill into Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will continue to increase Wednesday with daytime highs reaching the upper 30s to low 40s and the low 30s on the Tug Hill. Weather will remain quiet across Western NY Wednesday morning with increasing clouds. As the surface trough nears Lake Ontario, forcing and an increase in moisture will increase the chance for rain and snow showers across Western NY Wednesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. An amplifying ridge over the western Conus will encourage a sharpening longwave trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. during this period. This will support temps that will be solidly below normal . especially during the day.

The only real weather this period will be the passage of an arctic front Wednesday night. This will generate some snow showers throughout the region to open this period while setting the stage for nuisance lake snow showers in the ensuing periods.

Given H85 temps that will average in the minus teens c . the northwest flow Thursday through Friday night will support some nuisance lake snow showers . mainly southeast of Lk Ontario. Otherwise . mainly fair weather can be expected.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The longwave pattern will become progressive during this period with the western ridge sliding east. This will allow for Pacific modified air to flood the country . which eventually will lead to a PRONOUNCED warm up for our region at the end of this forecast period . and particularly the second half of next week. The mercury will climb well into the 50s across the western counties by Tuesday with 60s possible just outside of the scope of this package.

The warm up will be accompanied by mainly dry weather.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. VFR conditions will continue as lake clouds and flurries dissipate this afternoon. A warm front will approach from the northwest and clouds will increase mainly near Lake Ontario and east of Lake Ontario. A strong 50-60kt low-level jet will move across the region tonight. These strong winds will remain elevated however southwest winds will increase at the surface with 15-20kts and gusts up to 35 mph towards daybreak Wednesday. Winds will be less at KART. Low confidence in LLWS as mixing will result in gusty winds reaching the surface.

Light snow will move into the Eastern Lake Ontario region tonight and vsby restrictions are possible at KART late tonight into Wednesday morning. Snow will then be confined to the higher terrain through Wednesday afternoon. Mostly dry conditions expected across Western NY Wednesday morning with ceilings falling to 025-030.

Outlook .

Wednesday night . VFR/MVFR. Snow showers likely across Western NY. Thursday . VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers. Friday and Saturday . Mainly VFR. A chance of snow showers. Sunday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots on the eastern half of Lake Ontario will continue to support small craft advisory conditions this afternoon Otherwise. a brief lull in wind strength will be experienced on Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario through this afternoon as the center of high pressure will slide across the Ohio Valley.

Low pressure will then be quick to drop into the northern Lakes and the resultant gradient will bring an uptick in southwest winds across the Lower Great Lakes tonight. Small craft advisory conditions expected across the eastern end of Lake Erie and the Upper Niagara River and western Lake Ontario. A period of higher end small craft advisory conditions is likely for the rest of Lake Ontario later tonight until winds subside later Wednesday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . HSK NEAR TERM . HSK SHORT TERM . RSH LONG TERM . RSH AVIATION . HSK MARINE . HSK/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 9 mi148 min SW 12 G 13 24°F 33°F1020 hPa-0°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 13 mi148 min 26°F 1021.1 hPa
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 24 mi148 min 25°F 1021.5 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 25 mi136 min SW 13 G 17 27°F 1022.4 hPa (-2.7)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 45 mi136 min WSW 9.9 G 12 28°F 1022.3 hPa (-2.5)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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W20
G31
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G22
W15
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G18
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W8
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G12
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G15
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SE4
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G10
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G12
S16
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G14
SW14
SW8
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G14
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NW15
G20
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G23
W14
G17
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G28
W14
G24
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G30
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S12
G16
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S6
SE4
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G11
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G9
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NE7
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G14
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G13
E6
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G11
E3
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SE6
SE3

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY5 mi22 minSW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy26°F17°F69%1020 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY11 mi23 minSW 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy27°F14°F58%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW19
G30
NW14
G23
W17
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W18
G30
NW14
G25
W17
G26
W11
G20
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G21
NW12NW9
G20
NW12NW9NW10W10W6W7SW9W12SW12W11SW10SW12
1 day ago--S8S9S7S12S15S15W21
G29
W10W9SW10SW9NW13
G22
W14
G20
NW14
G25
W20
G26
W17
G27
W16
G24
W14
G23
W18
G24
W13
G20
NW16
G27
W21
G30
NW18
G31
2 days agoSW14SW14
G18
SW7SW7S5SE4SE7SE6SE4SE7E7E6SE6NE7E10E9E10SE10E4SE7SE9SE5E5SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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