Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 4:29 AM   Moonset 7:17 PM

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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 400 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Today - Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms from late evening through the overnight.Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Patchy fog in the morning. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast 10 knots or less. Partly to mostly cloudy. Thursday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely. Friday - Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers. Saturday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 52 degrees.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 072020 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 420 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will move across the area tonight, with an area of showers and a few thunderstorms crossing the area from southwest to northeast. The showers will exit the eastern Lake Ontario region Wednesday morning. Dry weather will then prevail most of the time for the rest of Wednesday, although a few more showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and evening, especially east of Lake Ontario. Unsettled weather will then last Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure systems crossing the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Tonight through early Wednesday morning a mid level trough will move northeast across the Great Lakes, with an associated warm front moving northeast across our area overnight. A 40+ knot southwesterly low level jet in the upstream warm sector will impinge on the warm front and enhance moisture transport and isentropic upglide. The quality of forcing and moisture continue to support the idea of an organized area of showers moving from southwest to northeast across the area overnight. This area can be seen on radar as a semi-broken line across Western Ohio early this afternoon. Model guidance in good agreement bringing this into Western NY late this evening, shortly after midnight for the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes, and the pre-dawn hours east of Lake Ontario. Forecast soundings show enough elevated instability to support a few thunderstorms as well, especially during the first half of the night. Storms may produce brief periods of heavy rain, but they'll be moving so flooding is not a concern.

Wednesday, the warm front will still be over the eastern Lake Ontario region early in the morning with showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Rain will have already ended across Western NY as the better forcing and moisture move east. It'll be quite breezy with wind gusts around 35 mph downwind of Lake Erie. This will result in a lake shadow which should keep most of Western NY rain free. The exception will be just south of Lake Ontario on the northern fringe of the shadow where limited instability may spark a few afternoon thunderstorms.

There may be a brief break in the showers east of Lake Ontario late Wednesday morning, but chances there will increase again when a strong mid level shortwave moves across southern Ontario.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the boundary which will be across northern Jefferson and Lewis Counties. In addition, instability to the south of this will feed into it, and potentially produce some stronger storms with heavy rain. SPC just clips this area with its Marginal Risk in the Day 2 Outlook.

Finally, an increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Erie fog will likely move onshore into downtown Buffalo for a few hours Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Ontario fog may move onshore into Jefferson County as well.

A weak area of low pressure will be east of the forecast area Wednesday night. The vast majority of the night will be rain- free with only small chances for showers east of Lake Ontario early and across the Western Southern Tier late.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The main challenge for this period will be periodic embeded shortwaves and the positioning of the H850 thermal boundary.
This feature is advertised to set up near the eastern Great Lakes, or even become draped across the region. This will impact temperatures, shower activity, and even thunderstorm potential through Friday. What is certain, it is looking 'likely' that it will be very unsettled through at least Friday. Given the unsettled weather anticipated...it would be highly recommended to have an umbrella handy through Friday. As was mentioned temperatures will be impacted...we could find ourselves on the cooler side of the thermal boundary with below normal temperatures. This will result in highs on Thursday only in the 60s, and then a tad bit cooler Friday with a range of 50s. May find a few spots in the low 60s.

Friday night...it looks like we will see a general decrease in shower coverage but can't completely rule out some showers overnight.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A broad upper level trough will become nestled across much of the Northeast through the weekend, and possibly will begin to retreat early next week. This pattern will 'likely' continue the theme of unsettled weather (showers), and also cool conditions (slightly below normal) across much of the region for this time of year.

AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure across New England will maintain VFR flight conditions through this evening. Tonight, a warm front will move quickly northeast across the eastern Great Lakes. This will bring about a three hour period of showers to most locations, with a risk of some thunderstorms within this line. The rain will be moving into a dry airmass, so expect mainly VFR CIGS/VSBY initially. The low levels will saturate near the back edge of the rain, with areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS expanding late tonight. Patchy fog is possible behind the front, especially northeast of the lakes at KBUF and KART. The stratus and fog will dissipate mid to late morning, giving way to mainly VFR flight conditions for the afternoon. The only exception is KART where showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the stalled boundary.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Mainly VFR.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly MVFR. Showers likely and MVFR stratus.

Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

MARINE
Moderate ENE winds will produce choppy conditions on Lake Ontario west of Rochester through the first half of tonight...however winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

WSW winds will then increase late tonight and Wednesday. This will particularly be the case across Lake Erie...where winds and wave action will be sufficient to support Small Craft Advisories as outlined below
Elsewhere choppy
but sub-advisory conditions can be expected.

An increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with visibility restrictions.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041.

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