Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
University at Buffalo, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 8:18PM Saturday August 15, 2020 1:05 PM EDT (17:05 UTC) Moonrise 1:18AMMoonset 5:08PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 629 Am Edt Sat Aug 15 2020
Today..Northeast winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..South winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight.
Monday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Mainly clear.
Wednesday..Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 77 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:202008151515;;484702 FZUS51 KBUF 151029 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 629 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-151515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near University at Buffalo, NY
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location: 42.99, -78.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 151534 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1134 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. Humidity and shower chances will increase throughout this weekend, while temperatures will remain above normal during this time as well. A cold front will enter and push through the area Monday bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances. Following the frontal passage, conditions will become dry and cool and last through much of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. High pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes is nosing in from the northeast this morning. Throughout the day today the high pressure will become less prominent, allowing for a more humid airmass to advance northward, ahead of a weak surface low over the Ohio valley and a shortwave trough propagating eastward. Diurnal heating will provide sufficient instability by afternoon to bring an increasing chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Latest CAMs continue to suggest the higher probabilities of convection will lie west of the Finger Lakes in close proximity to the surface wave and the lingering effects of the northeastern high keeping the North Country dry throughout the day. Highs today will climb up into the low to mid 80s with the hotter temperatures to lie inland from the lakes along the Lake Plains.

Surface wave and shortwave trough will slowly drift east of the area tonight with precipitation chances dropping off to just a few stray showers. Lows tonight will drop range in the 60s, with the cooler temperatures occuring across the hilltops.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Surface high pressure retreats to the east as a cold front approaches from the west Sunday. Heights will slowly fall as an upper level trough tracks from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Great Lakes through the day. Mid-level flow will stay weak as Western and North Central NY remain between coastal low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast and an approaching trough. Daytime heating, in combination of lake breeze boundaries may produce some showers across Western NY. Drier conditions expected across the North Country. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s.

The upper level trough will move over New York Sunday night. A cold front will continue to approach the region from the west and enter far Western NY by Monday morning. Moisture will increase across the region and showers will be possible Sunday night. Low temperatures will fall to the upper 50s to low 60s. The cold front will track across Western and North Central NY Monday. Daytime heating and an increased wind field will produce showers and a few storms along and ahead of the cold front Monday. At this time, model guidance shows the cold front moving through Western NY through the morning which will allow the Eastern Lake Ontario region to destabilize and have the better chance for storms. High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s expected. Showers will exit to the east Monday night and temperatures will fall to the upper 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A mid level trough axis will cross the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday in the wake of a cold front moving off the east coast. This will bring a cooler airmass into the eastern Great Lakes, with highs in the 70s on Tuesday. A few showers may linger east of Lake Ontario in upslope areas, otherwise the rest of the area will be mainly dry.

Weak high pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday night with dry weather. The cool/dry airmass will allow lows to drop into the 50s each night, with upper 40s possible in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and North Country. Highs Wednesday will reach the upper 70s to around 80 at lower elevations, and mid 70s across higher terrain.

Another mid level trough will pass to the north of the region Thursday, with the associated trailing cold front drifting southeast into the eastern Great Lakes. The bulk of the stronger large scale forcing will be found well north of the Canadian border, with a weak, moisture starved boundary crossing our region. With this in mind, kept the Thursday period mainly dry, with high pressure allowing dry weather to continue into Friday. Temperatures will begin to warm again later next week, with highs in the lower 80s.

AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. An area of showery cumulus currently lies across north central New York, while high clouds begin to invade in from the west. All in all VFR conditions prevail. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon west of the Finger Lakes. The probability is too low to justify inclusion in the western TAFs.

Outlook .

Sunday through Monday . Mainly VFR with a chance of showers. Tuesday through Wednesday . VFR.

MARINE. Winds have veered easterly this morning and will continue to veer to the south as high pressure exits to the east tonight. A cold front will continue to make an eastward moving progress tonight and Sunday before crossing the lakes Monday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . EAJ NEAR TERM . EAJ/TMA SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . Hitchcock AVIATION . EAJ/TMA MARINE . EAJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 9 mi47 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 78°F1015.7 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 13 mi47 min 1015.4 hPa
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 24 mi47 min 1015.2 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 25 mi65 min ENE 7 G 8 67°F 1015.6 hPa (-0.3)
45142 - Port Colborne 31 mi65 min E 3.9 G 3.9 76°F 77°F1014.9 hPa
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 43 mi65 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 72°F 70°F2 ft1015.1 hPa (-0.2)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 45 mi65 min NNE 6 G 7 75°F 1015 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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G8
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G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY5 mi71 minSSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F63°F49%1014.8 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY11 mi72 minVar 410.00 miFair81°F62°F53%1014.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE16
G21
E14NE13NE11NE11NE14NE12NE6NE7NE7NE6E4NE4NE5NE4NE5NE4E3NE3E3SE6S3SE4S6
1 day agoE103
G16
NE8E11
G15
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G17
NE8NE12NE10NE7NE6E9E5E5E6NE4NE4E4NE5NE3E6NE7NE8NE11NE13
2 days ago334SW8W64CalmN7E3S3S4CalmSE5SE4CalmNE3SE5SE4SE4CalmSE3CalmE8NE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.