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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Phelps, NY

June 25, 2024 2:29 PM EDT (18:29 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:27 AM   Sunset 8:51 PM
Moonrise 10:56 PM   Moonset 8:12 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 457 Pm Edt Mon Jun 24 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening - .

Tonight - West winds 15 to 25 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.

Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.

Wednesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Thursday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.

Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.

Saturday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 58 degrees, and the central lake ontario buoy water temperature is 64 degrees.

LOZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Phelps, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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786 FXUS61 KBUF 251503 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1103 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm and humid conditions today will last into Wednesday, along with increasing chances of showers and some thunderstorms, especially on Wednesday. Cooler and less humid conditions expected Thursday and Friday. Active weather returns Saturday as a cold front crosses the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Surface ridge will continue to exit off to the east this afternoon.
Southerly flow should pick up this afternoon with wind gusts up to 30 mph possible across western New York. A warm frontal segment is advertised to cross the region which may introduce a shower or an isolated thunderstorm. Continuing to watch as dying upstream MCS makes its way eastward. Latest CAMs trying to hold onto some of this convection as it shifts into western New York after 18z. Would expect that if some of this convection does manage to hold together it will be in a much weaker state.
Otherwise, highs today will be mainly in the lower 80s, with the warmer spots in the mid to upper 80s.

A cold front drops south into the region tonight with additional chances for some showers or a isolated thunderstorm. The best chances will again be found again across the North Country closer to the support from the upper-level jet. Overnight low temperatures should fall back into the 60s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
On Wednesday low pressure over northern Quebec and Labrador will gradually pivot its trailing cold front southeastward across our area
During the morning and very early afternoon hours
this feature should be largely starved for much in the way of support...and thus will probably only produce some scattered showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms as it makes its way roughly to/ just south of the I-90 corridor. After that time...a wave of low pressure will ripple northeastward along the boundary and slow its southward progress through the balance of the day...while also providing a notable uptick in moisture and large-scale ascent. This should translate into showers and some storms becoming more numerous to widespread across the Southern Tier and interior of the Finger Lakes Region during the afternoon and early evening hours...while more scattered pcpn should be found further north along the northern periphery of the passing wave. Given continued uncertainty in the timing/positioning of the frontal boundary...the amount of available instability during this more active portion of Wednesday remains rather questionable at this time. This being said...if sufficient instability is realized can see at least a lower-end risk for an isolated stronger storm or two across the Southern Tier given the presence of sufficient shear...which lines up well with the Marginal Risk for severe storms advertised by SPC in the latest Day 2 Convective Outlook. With PWATs also temporarily surging to around 1
5 inches
there will also be at least some threat for heavy rainfall with any storms...with this risk again greatest across the western Southern Tier which will lie closest to the track of the passing wave
With respect to temperatures
these should range from the mid 70s to lower 80s...with humid conditions out ahead of the front becoming somewhat less so following the passage of the boundary.

Wednesday night a shortwave trough will slide across our region while escorting the initial wavy cold frontal boundary and any deeper moisture/attendant threat for heavier rain off to our south and east...resulting in a commensurate northwest-to-southeast decrease in pcpn potential
In its wake
a much weaker and moisture- starved secondary cold front will slide across our area later Wednesday night and early Thursday...while possibly bringing a few more widely scattered showers to the North Country and far eastern Finger Lakes. Yet another shortwave will then dive across Southern Ontario and Saint Lawrence Valley Thursday afternoon and evening...
and this in tandem with some weak diurnally-driven instability could lead to a yet few more widely scattered showers across the North Country. Otherwise generally dry and uneventful weather will predominate across our region from the second half of Wednesday night through Thursday...though the influx of cooler air and developing upslope flow behind the passing fronts will probably lead to at least some lower clouds hanging around into Thursday morning.
As for temps...the incoming cooler/drier airmass will bring about much more comfortable conditions for Wednesday night and Thursday...
with lows Wednesday night generally between 55 and 60...and highs on Thursday mostly ranging from the upper 60s across the higher terrain to the lower 70s elsewhere.

Expansive Canadian high pressure will then build directly across our area Thursday night...then will drift east into New England on Friday. This will provide us with fair dry weather to close out the work week. Excellent conditions for radiational cooling will allow lows to settle into the mid-upper 40s across the interior Southern Tier/North Country and to the lower-mid 50s elsewhere Thursday night...with a developing southerly return flow on the backside of the departing ridge then allowing highs to recover to the mid 70s across the North Country and the upper 70s-lower 80s elsewhere on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Quasi-zonal flow remains in place through this period...with another mid-level trough and elongated attendant wave of low pressure (along with its associated warm and cold fronts) still looking to pass across the area this weekend. While the usual differences in timing persist amongst the medium range guidance...in general a loose consensus continues to suggest that pcpn chances will begin to return later Friday night and then ramp up during Saturday...with the best likelihood for showers/storms still looking to come Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening in tandem with the approach and passage of the primary cold front
Depending upon its timing
a trailing secondary cold frontal boundary could then keep the chances for some showers around into Sunday...before dry weather returns Sunday night and Monday
Otherwise
warmer and more humid conditions out ahead of this system will once again give way to cooler and more comfortable weather on its backside.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mainly VFR expected to remain across all area terminals today. South to southwest winds pick up today across far western terminals to include KBUF, KIAG, and KJHW. Winds up to 30 knots will be possible.
There is also the chance of some showers as remnants of the upstream MCS crosses the region
With it
ceilings will begin to lower, with some MVFR Cigs by this evening.

Tonight...a mix of VFR/MVFR Cigs will be found across most area terminals. Lower Cigs (IFR) may materialize across the S. Tier to include KJHW, along with some patchy fog producing lower vsbys.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers most area terminals.
Showers and a chance of thunderstorm across the Southern Tier.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday...Localized restrictions with shower likely and a chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE
A south to southwest wind flow picks up across Lake Erie and the western end of Lake Ontario today. Waves will be offshore, but a period of Small Craft conditions will develop this afternoon into the evening. SCAs remain in effect for Lake Erie beginning at 16Z though 03Z this evening. There will also be a chance of some showers, this as a pair of fronts cross the region through tonight.
Winds will also remain elevated on area lakes tonight producing light to moderate chop on both lakes.

Lighter winds and wave action is expected Wednesday but there may be better coverage of shower and storm for Lake Erie.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 37 mi89 minWSW 15G21 80°F 29.86
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 38 mi71 min 81°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 41 mi71 minSSW 8.9G12 81°F 29.8056°F
45215 42 mi63 min 75°F 70°F1 ft
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 48 mi89 minS 5.8G7.8 66°F 62°F29.8361°F


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSDC WILLIAMSONSODUS,NY 17 sm14 minSW 08G1610 smClear81°F50°F34%29.86
KIUA CANANDAIGUA,NY 19 sm14 minWSW 0410 smClear79°F55°F45%29.88
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KPEO
   
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Wind History graph: PEO
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Binghamton, NY,




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