Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 3:45 PM   Moonset 2:42 AM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1010 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Overnight - Light and variable winds. Patchy fog late. Waves 1 foot or less.Sunday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Areas of fog in the morning otherwise partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.Sunday night - Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds less than 10 knots becoming north. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 49 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 190939 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 539 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure extending from the Labrador Sea and the Canadian maritimes back across our region will generally keep fair dry weather in place through at least the beginning of the new work week. More notable will be the summer like heat that we can look forward to, as the mercury in most areas will climb WELL into the 80s for the Monday through Wednesday timeframe.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Continued expansion of the fog (across far western NY) and stratus (interior Southern Tier and Genesee Valley/western Finger Lakes)
continues to be seen quite nicely on Nighttime Microphysics satellite early this morning. With most observations hovering at or near one quarter mile and widespread nature of dense fog seen on satellite, have issued a Dense Fog Advisory valid through 10 AM for the Niagara Frontier southward along the Lake Erie shore into Chautauqua County.

Otherwise, following the dissipation of morning fog and stratus, amplifying mid and upper level ridge overhead will provide mainly dry weather today. There will be an outside chance for some diurnally driven scattered showers and possibly an isolated rumble of thunder across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region with a lingering weak surface convergent boundary in place there. High temperatures should climb into the mid to upper 70s.

High pressure will provide dry weather tonight. Although low level moisture looks to be a bit less tonight, there may still be enough to produce some areas of fog again overnight, mainly south of Lake Ontario. However, it should not be as widespread or dense as last night. Another mild night with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Summer-like warmth will be the main story as daytime temperatures climb solidly into the 80s both Monday through Wednesday. We might even see a few locales touch 90F, especially in the Genesee Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. A shower or even an isolated thunderstorm will be possible well inland from the lakes on Monday.

On Tuesday...a shortwave is advertised to crest over the top of the 500mb ridge. This feature will bring some showers to the St.
Lawrence Valley in the morning, and then additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the afternoon inland from the lakes.

Southwest flow strengthens across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday as low pressure tracks from Lake Superior to near Hudson Bay. The warmth will peak on Wednesday as H850T's reach its maximum aloft of +15C to +17C. This will easily support highs in the mid to upper 80s near 90F. No record highs anticipated at KBUF or KROC but we could near it at KART (86F:1985)
Additionally
this will likely be the best chance for showers and thunderstorms as a pre-frontal trough arrives across the region near peak heating
Right now
BUFKIT sounding profiles show CAPE values ramping up to 1300-1600 J/kg in the afternoon, and 35 knots of 0-6 km shear. Given the favorable timing...we could see some stronger storms develop inland from the cooler stable lake environment. Will need to keep an eye on temperatures and the potential for strong storms as we move closer.

Showers and thunderstorm potential will continue as we head into Wednesday night as the cold front nears and crosses the region overnight. Mild muggy night expected ahead of the cold front with lows expected in the 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The cold front should be in the process of exiting the region or just to our east by Thursday morning. There may still be some showers that linger behind the front on Thursday but should be fairly limited coverage wise
Otherwise
it will be cooler Thursday with highs in the low-mid 70s.

A secondary cold front is advertised to cross the region late Thursday night or even early Friday which will deliver a second shot of cooler air to the eastern Great Lakes
That said
the main challenge will be how much cooler with H850 temperatures potentially down to +4C to +7C. Guidance still shows anywhere from low-mid 60s to low-mid 70s. Will lean on NBM guidance at this point which is right in the middle with upper 60s to around 70F for daytime highs on Friday. The cooler airmass rapidly modifies over the weekend with a warming trend taking place across the region.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions expected east of Lake Ontario (KART) right through this evening. Meanwhile conditions deteriorate from east to west south of Lake Ontario, with the worst conditions (VLIFR/LIFR) across the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) and far southwestern NYS (KJHW)
where VSBYs down to a quarter mile continue. Nighttime Microphysics satellite shows the denser fog expanding inland from the western Lake Ontario and eastern Lake Erie shorelines. Lower Genesee Valley will likely be in between VFR to the east and IFR to VLIFR to the west. Currently low CIGS/VSBY (KROC) across the lower Genesee Valley early this morning.

Heading into today, low stratus and fog over western NY will slowly improve to VFR through the mid to late morning hours. Widespread VFR conditions then expected for this afternoon and evening, although there may be a stray shower or rumble of thunder toward the upper Genesee Valley during the afternoon.

Outlook...
Monday and Tuesday...mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
A highly saturated airmass and weak flow will continue over the lower Great Lakes today allowing for fog and low stratus to continue over the Lakes with poor visibility conditions across eastern Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario, for which a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 12 PM today.

Otherwise, light winds with minimal wave action expected on the lakes through Monday.

South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front through the Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NYZ001-002- 010-011-019-085.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for LEZ040-041.
Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for LOZ042- 062.

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