Victor, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Victor, NY

June 17, 2024 3:56 PM EDT (19:56 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:28 AM   Sunset 8:54 PM
Moonrise 3:42 PM   Moonset 1:25 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1023 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2024

Rest of today - South winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers late this morning. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tonight - Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Thursday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Friday - Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 62 degrees.

LOZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Victor, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 171850 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 250 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid weather through at least Thursday with apparent temperatures during this time likely to reach 100F at many locations Tuesday and Wednesday. There will also be scattered showers and thunderstorms at times, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A convectively induced shortwave across southern Ontario province and eastern Lake Erie will move across the area through this evening. Showers and thunderstorms generated by this have been somewhat suppressed by the lake breeze on Lake Erie, but as this shortwave and moisture moves across the greater instability which is in place east of the lake breeze expect the showers and storms to increase in areal coverage.
This is fairly well captured by mesoscale guidance, with showers and thunderstorms expected to expand across the Western Southern Tier, upper Genesee River valley, and Western Finger Lakes regions. Some storms may also develop in Niagara County along the northern fringe of the lake breeze. Fairly weak flow aloft will result in slow moving storms, with a potenial for locally heavy downpours. MCV will somewhat enhance the limited wind shear in place with a low, but non-zero risk for severe thunderstorms with gusty winds the primary risk. Given these factors SPC has introduced a marginal risk for severe weather for today.

Otherwise, this afternoon will be hot and humid. Highs will generally range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Apparent temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s in the lower Genesee Valley and Western Finger lakes where a Heat Advisory is in place. A few spots will be slightly cooler where showers and storms develop.

Tonight will be warm and muggy with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Can't rule out a few showers within this muggy and still unstable atmosphere. There also could be some fog in the Southern Tier river valleys tonight, especially at locations which get rain today.

Slightly warmer aloft on Tuesday with 850mb temperatures rising to about +20C. It will also be more humid with dew points rising to around 70. This combination will result in dangerously hot conditions outside with heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Forecast highs trended slightly down due to the increased confidence in daytime instability showers and thunderstorms which will result in modest/localized relief from the heat. However, with this, dew points and moisture are slightly higher so heat index values still support a Heat Advisory for the entire forecast area.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
...Heat Advisory in effect for the entire area as dangerous heat builds through mid week...

Surface high pressure will remained anchored along the eastern seaboard as a slow amplification of the eastern CONUS ridge takes place during the period. This will result in a deep southerly flow which will bring HOT and HUMID conditions during the day and WARM and MUGGY conditions at night.

Mid level ridge will be firmly in place Wednesday with ensembles showing heights around approaching 600 dm. 850 mb temperatures stay around +20C. Most high temperatures again in the lower 90s across the region with valley locations reaching the mid to upper 90s, with apparent temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s from midday through the afternoon. Nighttime temperatures will also remain elevated, with muggy conditions lasting even if heat index values drop some after sunset.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
...Dangerous Heat Wave Will Continue For The Region Through At Least Thursday...

Model consensus shows the axis of the anomalously strong nearly 600 decameter ridge will be just to our south and southeast Thursday, just a slight jog from its position on Wednesday. This may bring 500 mb heights down just a smidge, along with surface temperatures/dew points possibly a couple of degrees cooler. All in all, very similar to the hot and steamy conditions expected for Tuesday/Wednesday, which will make Thursday the most oppressive day of the long term period with heat index values again ranging from the mid 90s to very low 100s for the bulk of western and northcentral NY.

Positioning/proximity of the upper level ridge will suppress most, if not all convection, especially across western NY. Better chance for an isolated shower/storm would be toward the North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley closer to the northern periphery of the ridge.

A very gradual day-to-day 'cooling' is then expected for the Fri-Sun timeframe as successive shortwaves traversing eastward through central and eastern Canada slowly suppress the ridge to the south, leaving a quasi-zonal flow in place across the CONUS by the end of the period. That said, still want to emphasize that conditions are still going to remain very warm to hot with elevated humidity levels. In terms of temperatures, upper 80s/low 90s Friday will slowly trend downward to the mid and upper 80s by the end of the weekend, with the highest elevations several degrees cooler respectively on any given day. Heat index values will reach the low to mid 90s for all of the lower terrain Friday afternoon, upper 80s to low 90s Saturday afternoon, and mid 80s to near 90 by Sunday.

In terms of precipitation, there will be some increase in convection potential as we close out the work week and head into next weekend.
This will be owed to mainly two things: Upper level disturbances riding the northern periphery of the upper ridge passing closer and closer to the area as the center of the ridge slowly sags further south through the period, while a surface boundary also sags south toward the region from Canada. Areas that do receive some showers/storms, will enjoy some relief, however any reprieve will only be temporary.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
For the 18Z TAFS, there will be mainly VFR flight conditions.
However, a few showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across Western NY this afternoon which may briefly produce MVFR or lower flight conditions. Any impacts will be brief.

Fog is possible in the Southern Tier river valleys. Confidence is too low to include in the KJHW TAF but there a risk it will develop there.

Otherwise, mainly VFR flight conditions on Tuesday morning then more showers and storms will develop during the afternoon hours.
Localized MVFR or lower possible.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, but a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.

MARINE
High pressure will be near the eastern Great Lakes through much of this week, offering light winds, generally 15 knots or less on the lakes.

CLIMATE
A prolonged period of heat is expected for our region, starting Monday June 17th. Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites:

Buffalo

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 17
94/1994............73/2006
June 18
95/1994............73/2006
June 19
90/2001............73/1919
June 20
92/1995............73/2012


Rochester

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 17
94/1994............70/1994
June 18
97/1957............72/2018
June 19
95/2001............72/1919
June 20
95/1953............72/1923


Watertown

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 17
89/1994............68/1949
June 18
91/1957............70/1992
June 19
91/2007............70/1949
June 20
90/1971............71/2012

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871.
Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ001-002-006>008-010>012-019>021-085.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ003>005-013-014.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 19 mi56 minNE 7G8 79°F 30.05
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 20 mi56 min 80°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 43 mi46 minSE 5.8G7.8 70°F 61°F30.0265°F


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KIUA CANANDAIGUA,NY 11 sm21 mincalm10 smPartly Cloudy93°F66°F41%30.04
KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY 12 sm62 minW 0710 smPartly Cloudy90°F66°F46%30.03
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Wind History graph: ROC
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Buffalo, NY,




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