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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saratoga Springs, NY

June 25, 2024 2:06 PM EDT (18:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:15 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM
Moonrise 11:43 PM   Moonset 8:58 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saratoga Springs, NY
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Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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886 FXUS61 KALY 251736 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 136 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in from the Mid Atlantic Region today with mostly sunny skies and dry weather as temperatures rise back above normal. A warm front moves through tonight with increasing clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, as a cooler and drier air mass builds in Thursday through Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

UPDATE
Decent mixing this afternoon resulting in lowering dewpoints(mainly 50 to lower 60s) and temperatures running slightly warmer than forecast in some areas. Made some minor adjustments to account for these trends, otherwise no changes with this update. Satellite imagery showing streaks of high level cirrus clouds moving in from the west.

.PREV DISCUSSION[1019]...No significant changes with this update. Temperatures are warming quickly this morning after a relatively cool start to the day. High level clouds will increase from the west this afternoon.

H850 temps will rise to about +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal as the actual values will be in the +14C to +17C range. Humidity levels will be comfortable with dewpoints in the 50s to around 60F in a few spots. Expect max temps to be close to the NBM/MAV MOS values with mid and upper 80s in the valley areas with a few 90F readings in the mid Hudson Valley and mid 70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain. Winds will be lighter than yesterday and be from the west to southwest at 5-15 mph. Some cirrus will begin to increase in the late pm from the south and west ahead of a warm front.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Tonight...A warm front approaches the region from the south and west. Mid and high clouds increase. Low to mid level warm advection continues. Some elevated instability associated with the warm front and a weak mid level disturbance will bring some isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms especially north and west of the mid Hudson Valley. The thunderstorms may be more confined to the Adirondacks, w-central Mohawk Valley and the northern Catskills. Low temps will be milder with mid and upper 60s over the lower elevations and upper 50s to lower/mid 60s over the hills and mtns.

The forecast area enters a warm sector on Wednesday and it becomes moderately humid. The latest short-range and CAM guidance is hinting at a drier day with perhaps some showers and thunderstorms getting into locations south and west of the Capital Region in the late afternoon and early evening. The latest HRRRS has mean MUCAPEs of 750-1000 J/kg over the southern most zones of the southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT with 0-6 km shear values around 35 KT. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop. The SPC Day 2 Outlook did not change much with a Slight Risk over the eastern Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley. A Marginal Risk continues over most of the rest of the forecast area. A few stronger storms are possible into the early evening, but the instability will be decreasing. The latest 3-km NAM shows the best MLCAPE and 0-6 km shear overlay towards 00Z/THU close to the I-84 corridor with the short-wave trough and the cold front. Any severe threat will likely be damaging winds or marginal severe hail. Max temps will generally be in the mid and upper 80s in the valleys with 70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain. Heat indices look to remain below 95F for the mid Hudson River Valley, so a heat advisory is not anticipated at this time.

PWATs rise +1 to +2 STDEVS above normal into the 1.25-1.75" range. A secondary wave along the boundary will increase the showers and embedded thunderstorms WED night for moderate to locally heavy rain. The front is somewhat progressive and this should limit the flash flood threat. WPC has a Marginal Risk over the entire forecast area...so an isolated flash flood can not be ruled out. Some 1-2" or so rainfall tallies will be possible. Lows due to wet bulb cooling and cold advection in the wake of the front will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Fairly good confidence in the ensembles and medium range guidance that the front will move through the region quickly by daybreak Thursday. A few showers may persist in the morning over western New England and the southern Adirondacks, as the the mid and upper level trough axis move trough. High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Region. In the cyclonic flow aloft it will be cool with sun mixed with a few clouds. Max temps will be in the mid 60s to lower/mid 70s over the higher terrain. Highs below 1000 ft in elevation will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Humidity levels will be comfortable. The sfc anticyclone builds in over NY and New England with ideal radiational cooling conditions with clear skies and light/calm winds. Lows will fall into the 40s to lower/mid 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
We begin the long term period with large scale subsidence building behind our departing trough from Thursday resulting in strengthening high pressure for Friday. This will yield tranquil weather with plenty of sunshine for final day of the work week and seasonable temperatures rising into the upper 70s to low 80s with low humidity.

Our attention then turns to an incoming trough for the weekend.
Guidance is in good agreement with high pressure maintaining control of the Northeast Friday night into the first half of Saturday before a warm front progresses northward. Within the incoming warm sector, increasingly rich low and mid-level moisture with PWATs exceeding 1.50" and potentially even 2" advects into the Northeast and looks to restrict boundary layer mixing/insolation and thus high temperatures appear to remain only around normal albeit increasing humidity. Should insolation end up being higher with the deeper moisture delayed until evening, daytime temperatures may trend warmer for Saturday.

Strengthening warm air and moisture advection along the leading edge of the warm nose support POPs increasing to chances (30-50%) and likely (50-70%) for rain and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into especially Saturday night when the stronger height falls arrive.
Guidance is in good agreement keeping the main parent trough and sfc cold front displaced well to our west over the Great Lakes and western NY so we remain in the warm sector Saturday night into Sunday. This should support even warmer daytime temperatures for Sunday as strong flow ahead of the incoming cold front results in even higher humidity. Parts of the mid-Hudson Valley may reach heat advisory criteria but still enough uncertainty to keep this out of the hazardous weather outlook. Ensemble guidance supports the slow progression of the incoming trough and sfc cold front which is why we maintained POPs at chance (30-50% ) for much of Sunday before the main thermal and moisture gradient finally pushes through eastern NY and western New England with the trough axis following in its wake.

Much cooler and drier air quickly infiltrates behind the cold front for Sunday night into Monday with winds also turning breezy. Dry weather continues into Tuesday and seasonable temperatures as high pressure from the Great Lakes builds into the Northeast.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. High level cirrus clouds will continue to increase this afternoon and thicken through this evening. Cigs will lower to 6000-10000 ft AGL overnight associated with a warm front moving through. Widely SCT -SHRA are possible, especially in the KALB-KGFL corridor, so will mention VCSH at these sites. Mid level clouds are expected to decrease after 12z Wednesday behind the warm front, with mainly FEW cumulus clouds and SCT high level cirrus clouds around.

Added mention of low level wind shear at KPOU/KPSF from around 06z onward tonight due to just enough of a wind speed difference (30 kt difference) between the surface and 2000 ft AGL as a southwest jet of around 40 kt moves in. LLWS should dissipate after 12z once deeper mixing commences.

Surface winds will be mainly west-southwest around 8-10 kt with occasional gusts to 15 kt through the daylight hours. Winds will become south-southwest around 3-6 kt this evening, increasing to 5-10 kt overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact
Definite SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 69 mi82 min0 85°F 29.8658°F




Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSCH SCHENECTADY COUNTY,NY 15 sm21 minW 09G1510 smClear84°F52°F33%29.86
KALB ALBANY INTL,NY 18 sm15 minW 0810 smPartly Cloudy86°F54°F33%29.85
KGFL FLOYD BENNETT MEMORIAL,NY 24 sm13 minSW 07G1610 smClear84°F54°F35%29.81
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSCH
   
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Wind History graph: SCH
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Troy, Hudson River, New York
   
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Troy
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Tue -- 02:35 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:18 AM EDT     5.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:21 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:43 PM EDT     4.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
1
1
am
0.6
2
am
0.2
3
am
0.2
4
am
1
5
am
2.5
6
am
4
7
am
5
8
am
5.4
9
am
5.3
10
am
4.5
11
am
3.1
12
pm
1.9
1
pm
1.1
2
pm
0.3
3
pm
-0.2
4
pm
-0.1
5
pm
1
6
pm
2.5
7
pm
3.5
8
pm
4.1
9
pm
4.2
10
pm
3.7
11
pm
2.7


Tide / Current for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Tue -- 02:25 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:10 AM EDT     5.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:11 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:35 PM EDT     4.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Albany, New York, Tide feet
12
am
0.9
1
am
0.5
2
am
0.2
3
am
0.3
4
am
1.2
5
am
2.8
6
am
4.2
7
am
5.1
8
am
5.4
9
am
5.2
10
am
4.3
11
am
2.9
12
pm
1.8
1
pm
0.9
2
pm
0.2
3
pm
-0.3
4
pm
0
5
pm
1.2
6
pm
2.7
7
pm
3.7
8
pm
4.2
9
pm
4.2
10
pm
3.6
11
pm
2.6


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast   
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Albany, NY,




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