Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saratoga Springs, NY
May 13, 2024 11:10 AM EDT (15:10 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:31 AM Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 10:08 AM Moonset 1:16 AM |
FXUS61 KALY 131423 AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1023 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
Morning sun mixes with increasing clouds as temperatures turn warmer ahead of a warm front. Chances for showers and some storms increase this afternoon into this evening before we trend drier overnight into Tuesday. Temperatures become even warmer tomorrow ahead of a weak cold front and upper level disturbance which will lead to more widespread showers and potentially a few storms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Then, drier and seasonably warm conditions return late week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Area 12Z soundings showing mixing potential a couple/few degrees cooler than current forecasted high temperatures, even with the sunshine this morning and warm advection bringing in some warmer boundary layer temperatures this afternoon. Clouds and showers in western NY will spread across the region through the afternoon, with a rumble of thunder possible. Some minor adjustments to sky cover, temperatures and timing of showers through this afternoon. Highs in the 60s to around 70.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Mid and upper level moisture along the leading edge of the warm air sector spill overtop upper level ridging this afternoon resulting in sun fading behind increasing clouds. Chances for showers also increase this afternoon by 18 - 21 UTC into this evening, mainly for areas along and north of I-90, where the highest moisture and forcing will line-up along the periphery of the upper level ridging. With PWATs exceeding one inch within the incoming warm sector, some elevated convection is also possible late this afternoon into this evening, again mainly for areas along and north of I-90.
Ridging strengthens tonight in response to a shortwave trough approaching from the Midwest. This should steer scattered showers and thunderstorms northward into the North Country by 03 to 06 UTC and trend POPs downwards by this time to message a dry trend. Clouds will also lift northward allowing for clearing skies, especially from the Capital District southward into the mid- Hudson Valley and NW CT. Despite the clearing sky trend, we remain in the warm sector so temperatures will stay mild and dew points elevated which will make it feel slightly humid.
Overnight lows only expected to drop into the low to mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Dry weather continues into Tuesday morning as we remain under the influence of a weak sfc high positioned off the coast and upper level ridging. Eastern NY and western New England will also be within the warm sector (850hPa isotherm +10C to +11C) ahead of a weak/diffuse boundary in southern Ontario that will slowly slide southeastward. Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave trough from the Midwest tracks into the Ohio Valley and moisture spills eastward. Despite the increasing clouds, deep boundary layer mixing within the warm sector ahead of the boundary will help temperatures rising well into mid to upper 70s. We leaned on the warmer end of guidance once again and would not be surprised if some sites reach 80F as southerly winds become a bit breezy sustained 8-15mph. Dew points will also be on the rise rising well into the 50s towards 60 so the increased humidity will make it feel even warmer.
Some showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the weak boundary will be approaching from Central NY and the North Country Tuesday afternoon but the better forcing remains north and west of the Capital District. We thus limited likely POPs to the southern/western Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and northern Catskills areas with just chance POPs from Albany south and eastward into western New England. With PWATs over 1", any thunderstorms will be capable of producing periods of steady rainfall. Areas in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT should remain mainly dry most of Tuesday as they remain displaced from the better forcing/moisture.
The better potential for increased shower coverage and isolated thunderstorms occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper level trough/weak closed low from the Ohio Valley slides eastward resulting in increased height falls. The boundary from southern Ontario washes out as it pushes into areas mainly north and west of Albany on Wednesday but should still provide a localized convergence zone and focus for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. With PWATs remaining over 1" and dew points near 60, some steadier periods of rain are still possible; however, overall thunderstorm potential appears limited on Wednesday given mainly cloudy skies and southeasterly to easterly sfc winds. Since overall forcing for ascent on Wednesday is rather broad and weaker, we capped POPs at likely and removed categorical mention since there likely will be periods of dry time.
Temperatures stay mild Tuesday night given cloudy skies and the muggy/mild air mass so overnight lows will likely only drop into the mid to upper 50s. Cloudy skies and southeasterly winds on Wednesday will keep temperatures relatively cooler with many only reaching into the mid to upper 60s; however, it will still feel muggy with dew points in the 50s to near 60.
The upper level closed low slowly exits to our east late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with upper level ridging and subsidence building in its wake. This will yield a drying trend Wednesday night with partial clearing skies. Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 50s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The extended forecast period is generally progged to begin dry as modest height rises precede the eastward building of a weak surface high from the Ohio Valley. Of course, with a coastal low slowly pushing east away from the Mid-Atlantic Coast, much of eastern New York and western New England will remain under northeast, cyclonic flow which could allow some light, scattered showers to take place Thursday morning. This will be especially true for higher terrain areas east of the Hudson (Southern Greens, Berkshires and Taconics)
where upslope enhancement could play a factor in overcoming the fast- advancing, mid-level dry air. The aforementioned low will continue to push east away from the coastline throughout the day Thursday with high pressure sliding in at the surface and modest ridging building aloft. Dry conditions are, therefore, expected to continue through at least the first half of Friday as high pressure keeps hold of the region despite its swift track eastward.
The forecast for the latter half of the extended period retains a fair amount of uncertainty as medium to long range models show discontinuities in their evolution of an upper-level trough and associated surface low that holds our next chance for widespread rain. Currently, the GFS and CMC-NH show the most consistency with one another, depicting the system as a negatively-tilted, northern- stream, open wave sliding across portions of the upper Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes with an attendant low tracking through the Great Lakes at the surface. With this solution, widespread rain looks to begin late Friday afternoon/early Saturday evening and last through Saturday afternoon/evening before tapering off to mere showers by Saturday night and ceasing completely by early Sunday morning.
While the ECMWF depiction of this system is similar, more substantial timing discrepancies exist in the eastward shift of the aforementioned coastal low which would limit the dry period Thursday into Friday. Additionally, discrepancies in the track of the main low associated with this system, shown in all three models, increases uncertainty in the extent of widespread rain Friday through Saturday. Will continue to monitor conditions over the coming days as guidance comes into greater agreement.
Despite discontinuities regarding Friday and Saturday's forecast, guidance consistently paints Sunday as a dry day as an amplified ridge and high pressure system build into the region and across much of the East Coast. High temperatures throughout the extended period generally look to remain within the 60s and 70s across the region with lows in the 40s and 50s.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12z Tuesday...Fog formed at KALB and KPSF this morning with KPOU forming a low, stratus ceiling. KGFL has avoided the worsening conditions due to a persistent, light breeze overnight. However, with its latest METAR ob reading 100% RH, it is possible that a brief reduction in visibility could be observed within the first couple hours of the 12z period.
Fog should dissipate rather quickly this morning with clear skies giving way to ample sunlight to burn it off. Once fog has dissipated, VFR conditions will resume through at least this afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase today, however, ahead of an incoming upper-level disturbance and warm front. Some showers will be possible as a result this afternoon/evening and into tonight, which could yield MVFR conditions should a heavier downpour be embedded and cross over the terminals. However, most if not all showers should remain on the lighter side. Therefore, based on latest guidance, maintained VFR ceilings throughout the period.
Winds throughout the 12z cycle will be sustained at 5-8 kt out of a southerly-southwesterly direction with the possible, occasional gust of 15-20 kt at KALB and KPSF.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1023 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
Morning sun mixes with increasing clouds as temperatures turn warmer ahead of a warm front. Chances for showers and some storms increase this afternoon into this evening before we trend drier overnight into Tuesday. Temperatures become even warmer tomorrow ahead of a weak cold front and upper level disturbance which will lead to more widespread showers and potentially a few storms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Then, drier and seasonably warm conditions return late week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Area 12Z soundings showing mixing potential a couple/few degrees cooler than current forecasted high temperatures, even with the sunshine this morning and warm advection bringing in some warmer boundary layer temperatures this afternoon. Clouds and showers in western NY will spread across the region through the afternoon, with a rumble of thunder possible. Some minor adjustments to sky cover, temperatures and timing of showers through this afternoon. Highs in the 60s to around 70.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Mid and upper level moisture along the leading edge of the warm air sector spill overtop upper level ridging this afternoon resulting in sun fading behind increasing clouds. Chances for showers also increase this afternoon by 18 - 21 UTC into this evening, mainly for areas along and north of I-90, where the highest moisture and forcing will line-up along the periphery of the upper level ridging. With PWATs exceeding one inch within the incoming warm sector, some elevated convection is also possible late this afternoon into this evening, again mainly for areas along and north of I-90.
Ridging strengthens tonight in response to a shortwave trough approaching from the Midwest. This should steer scattered showers and thunderstorms northward into the North Country by 03 to 06 UTC and trend POPs downwards by this time to message a dry trend. Clouds will also lift northward allowing for clearing skies, especially from the Capital District southward into the mid- Hudson Valley and NW CT. Despite the clearing sky trend, we remain in the warm sector so temperatures will stay mild and dew points elevated which will make it feel slightly humid.
Overnight lows only expected to drop into the low to mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Dry weather continues into Tuesday morning as we remain under the influence of a weak sfc high positioned off the coast and upper level ridging. Eastern NY and western New England will also be within the warm sector (850hPa isotherm +10C to +11C) ahead of a weak/diffuse boundary in southern Ontario that will slowly slide southeastward. Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave trough from the Midwest tracks into the Ohio Valley and moisture spills eastward. Despite the increasing clouds, deep boundary layer mixing within the warm sector ahead of the boundary will help temperatures rising well into mid to upper 70s. We leaned on the warmer end of guidance once again and would not be surprised if some sites reach 80F as southerly winds become a bit breezy sustained 8-15mph. Dew points will also be on the rise rising well into the 50s towards 60 so the increased humidity will make it feel even warmer.
Some showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the weak boundary will be approaching from Central NY and the North Country Tuesday afternoon but the better forcing remains north and west of the Capital District. We thus limited likely POPs to the southern/western Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and northern Catskills areas with just chance POPs from Albany south and eastward into western New England. With PWATs over 1", any thunderstorms will be capable of producing periods of steady rainfall. Areas in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT should remain mainly dry most of Tuesday as they remain displaced from the better forcing/moisture.
The better potential for increased shower coverage and isolated thunderstorms occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper level trough/weak closed low from the Ohio Valley slides eastward resulting in increased height falls. The boundary from southern Ontario washes out as it pushes into areas mainly north and west of Albany on Wednesday but should still provide a localized convergence zone and focus for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. With PWATs remaining over 1" and dew points near 60, some steadier periods of rain are still possible; however, overall thunderstorm potential appears limited on Wednesday given mainly cloudy skies and southeasterly to easterly sfc winds. Since overall forcing for ascent on Wednesday is rather broad and weaker, we capped POPs at likely and removed categorical mention since there likely will be periods of dry time.
Temperatures stay mild Tuesday night given cloudy skies and the muggy/mild air mass so overnight lows will likely only drop into the mid to upper 50s. Cloudy skies and southeasterly winds on Wednesday will keep temperatures relatively cooler with many only reaching into the mid to upper 60s; however, it will still feel muggy with dew points in the 50s to near 60.
The upper level closed low slowly exits to our east late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with upper level ridging and subsidence building in its wake. This will yield a drying trend Wednesday night with partial clearing skies. Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 50s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The extended forecast period is generally progged to begin dry as modest height rises precede the eastward building of a weak surface high from the Ohio Valley. Of course, with a coastal low slowly pushing east away from the Mid-Atlantic Coast, much of eastern New York and western New England will remain under northeast, cyclonic flow which could allow some light, scattered showers to take place Thursday morning. This will be especially true for higher terrain areas east of the Hudson (Southern Greens, Berkshires and Taconics)
where upslope enhancement could play a factor in overcoming the fast- advancing, mid-level dry air. The aforementioned low will continue to push east away from the coastline throughout the day Thursday with high pressure sliding in at the surface and modest ridging building aloft. Dry conditions are, therefore, expected to continue through at least the first half of Friday as high pressure keeps hold of the region despite its swift track eastward.
The forecast for the latter half of the extended period retains a fair amount of uncertainty as medium to long range models show discontinuities in their evolution of an upper-level trough and associated surface low that holds our next chance for widespread rain. Currently, the GFS and CMC-NH show the most consistency with one another, depicting the system as a negatively-tilted, northern- stream, open wave sliding across portions of the upper Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes with an attendant low tracking through the Great Lakes at the surface. With this solution, widespread rain looks to begin late Friday afternoon/early Saturday evening and last through Saturday afternoon/evening before tapering off to mere showers by Saturday night and ceasing completely by early Sunday morning.
While the ECMWF depiction of this system is similar, more substantial timing discrepancies exist in the eastward shift of the aforementioned coastal low which would limit the dry period Thursday into Friday. Additionally, discrepancies in the track of the main low associated with this system, shown in all three models, increases uncertainty in the extent of widespread rain Friday through Saturday. Will continue to monitor conditions over the coming days as guidance comes into greater agreement.
Despite discontinuities regarding Friday and Saturday's forecast, guidance consistently paints Sunday as a dry day as an amplified ridge and high pressure system build into the region and across much of the East Coast. High temperatures throughout the extended period generally look to remain within the 60s and 70s across the region with lows in the 40s and 50s.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12z Tuesday...Fog formed at KALB and KPSF this morning with KPOU forming a low, stratus ceiling. KGFL has avoided the worsening conditions due to a persistent, light breeze overnight. However, with its latest METAR ob reading 100% RH, it is possible that a brief reduction in visibility could be observed within the first couple hours of the 12z period.
Fog should dissipate rather quickly this morning with clear skies giving way to ample sunlight to burn it off. Once fog has dissipated, VFR conditions will resume through at least this afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase today, however, ahead of an incoming upper-level disturbance and warm front. Some showers will be possible as a result this afternoon/evening and into tonight, which could yield MVFR conditions should a heavier downpour be embedded and cross over the terminals. However, most if not all showers should remain on the lighter side. Therefore, based on latest guidance, maintained VFR ceilings throughout the period.
Winds throughout the 12z cycle will be sustained at 5-8 kt out of a southerly-southwesterly direction with the possible, occasional gust of 15-20 kt at KALB and KPSF.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSCH SCHENECTADY COUNTY,NY | 15 sm | 2.3 hrs | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 46°F | 82% | 30.05 | |
| KALB ALBANY INTL,NY | 18 sm | 19 min | SE 05 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 63°F | 45°F | 52% | 30.04 | |
| KGFL FLOYD BENNETT MEMORIAL,NY | 24 sm | 17 min | SSW 05 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 59°F | 48°F | 67% | 30.02 |
Troy
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:14 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:04 AM EDT 0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:33 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 09:47 AM EDT 5.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:09 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 04:51 PM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:28 PM EDT 4.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:14 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:04 AM EDT 0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:33 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 09:47 AM EDT 5.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:09 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 04:51 PM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:28 PM EDT 4.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.9 |
| 1 am |
| 2.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.7 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 2.4 |
| 7 am |
| 3.7 |
| 8 am |
| 4.7 |
| 9 am |
| 5.3 |
| 10 am |
| 5.5 |
| 11 am |
| 5 |
| 12 pm |
| 4 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.2 |
Albany
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:14 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 03:54 AM EDT 0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:34 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 09:39 AM EDT 5.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:09 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 04:41 PM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:20 PM EDT 4.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:14 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 03:54 AM EDT 0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:34 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 09:39 AM EDT 5.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:09 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 04:41 PM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:20 PM EDT 4.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.8 |
| 1 am |
| 2.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 2.6 |
| 7 am |
| 3.9 |
| 8 am |
| 4.8 |
| 9 am |
| 5.4 |
| 10 am |
| 5.4 |
| 11 am |
| 4.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.1 |
Albany, NY,
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