Wilmington, VT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilmington, VT

June 19, 2024 10:29 AM EDT (14:29 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:08 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM
Moonrise 6:41 PM   Moonset 2:55 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmington, VT
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Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 191046 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 646 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
The dangerous combination of near-record heat and elevated humidity continues through at least Thursday, especially at lower elevations. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible through Thursday, with an approaching cold front expected to bring more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday. The first half of the weekend may bring a modest respite from the oppressive heat, but temperatures will still remain seasonably warm to hot into next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
**Heat Advisories remain in effect for all of eastern New York and western New England through 8 PM Thursday**

UPDATE
As of 0645 AM EDT, temperatures remain lodged in the low to mid 70s within the larger valleys and in the mid to upper 60s in areas of terrain, providing little relief from heat indices which reached into the low 100s yesterday. The mild start, in combination with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees across the region, portend another day of oppressive and dangerous heat and humidity. Additional showers and thunderstorms are still expected to bring a threat for brief gusty winds and heavy downpours this afternoon and evening. As such, the forecast remains on track; see previous discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0445 AM EDT]...Following another mild and muggy night, oppressive heat and humidity returns today, as the closed 500 hPa high continues to build overhead, reaching its peak amplitude near 600 dam by this evening. 850 hPa temperatures look to remain around 18-20C today, while surface high pressure located southeast of Cape Cod will yield southwesterly low-level flow locally, allowing modest downsloping into the Hudson, Mohawk, and Connecticut Valleys to aid in warming temperatures a few degrees beyond yesterday's highs. Afternoon highs will thus reach the 80s in high terrain and low to mid 90s at lower elevations, with a few pockets of upper 90s expected within the Capital District. Daily record highs may be challenged at Albany and Poughkeepsie.

Continued surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will result in heat indices again reaching up to 95 degrees in the high terrain of the southern Adirondacks, eastern Catskills, and southern Greens, while valley locales see values from the mid 90s to low 100s. Mild and muggy conditions continue tonight, as temperatures only fall to lows in the mid 60s to low 70s again, providing little relief from the daytime heat. Heat Advisories therefore remain in effect across all of eastern New York and western New England for another day.

Elevated temperatures and humidity at the surface will result in ample convective instability of around 1500-2000 J/kg, with localized vorticity maxima traversing the apex of the ridge again allowing for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. While storms are expected to remain below severe thresholds today, any taller convective cell will be capable of a brief heavy downpour. Coverage of storms will quickly diminish through the evening following the loss of diurnal heating.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
**Heat Advisories continue through 8 PM Thursday for all of eastern New York and western New England**

By Thursday, the ridge will begin to flatten while the closed upper high slides to the southwest toward the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures will nonetheless remain at near-record levels for another day, with afternoon highs again expected in the 80s in high terrain and 90s at lower elevations. Persistent dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will yield similar heat indices to Wednesday, up to 95 degrees in the high terrain of the southern Adirondacks, eastern Catskills, and southern Greens, and mid 90s to low 100s at lower elevations. Heat Advisories therefore continue through 8 PM Thursday evening.

A weak surface trough will develop over the northeast between persistent high pressure over the North Atlantic and a building surface high over the Upper Great Lakes. This trough may serve as a focus for afternoon convection, as the heat and humidity again provides fuel in the form of ample instability. Despite marginal shear, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds may therefore develop, with any taller convective cell again additionally capable of a brief heavy downpour. SPC has raised the convective outlook to a Slight Risk across portions of the Northeast in response to this threat.

Mild and muggy conditions continue through Thursday night, as lows remain stubbornly lodged in the mid 60s to low 70s across the region, again providing little relief from the daytime heat.
Upper heights will finally begin to trend downward Thursday night into Friday, as an approaching cold front brings a brief respite from the extreme heat to some. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 70s to low 80s north of I-90 behind the front as it sags across the region, with mid 80s to low 90s to the south.
Dewpoints in the low 70s ahead of the front may again yield heat indices in excess of 95 degrees in portions of the Mid-Hudson Valley, with extensions of Heat Advisories through Friday possible pending increased confidence in forecast heat indices.

The cold front will bring more widespread chances for rain showers with embedded thunderstorms to much of eastern New York and western New England. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, especially south and east of Albany, with a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall resulting in isolated flash flooding for locations south and east of Albany. Behind the frontal passage, modestly cooler nighttime temperatures return, with lows expected in the upper 50s to upper 60s across the region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Our boundary from Friday stalls across eastern NY and western New England on Saturday as upper level flow becomes more zonal in response to the large area of high pressure becoming centered in the TN/MS Valley. With the conveyor belt of faster westerly winds along the periphery of the ridge becoming centered across the Northeast on Saturday along with a sfc boundary stalled over the area, POPs remain elevated at chance and trend to likely during the afternoon peak heating hours. It still looks like temperatures will trend lower on Saturday with high temperatures only reaching into the low to mid 80s with mid to upper 70s in the higher terrain and hill towns but dew points and thus humidity still remain a bit uncomfortable. With the faster westerly flow in play, increased shear and sufficient instability should aid in some more organized thunderstorm activity but mild temperatures in the mid-levels should keep lapse rates weak and thus limit overall severe weather potential.

Our next potential for strong to possibly severe weather looks to be Sunday into Sunday night as the aforementioned stalled boundary lifts north as a warm front in response to an amplifying shortwave trough in the Great Lakes. Southwesterly flow strengthen over the Northeast ahead of the shortwave, ushering our unseasonably warm and humid air mass back into the area. With 850hPa isotherms potentially returning to +19C to +20C, more widespread 90s are possible and given increased humidity, heat index values may approach dangerous levels again and warrant heat advisory headlines to be reissued.
However, this is still a day 5 forecast and there remain uncertainties with cloud coverage, boundary layer mixing, and timing of precipitation which may limit just how hot temperatures become but this will be monitored in the coming days.

The warm sector making a return would also provide plenty of instability and with increasing height falls and a pre-frontal trough expected ahead of the approaching shortwave, confidence is increasing that stronger forcing will be in play to support thunderstorm development for the afternoon into the evening.
Increased southwesterly winds would also increase deep layer shear and support organized convection. While mild temperatures in the mid- levels continue for much of Sunday, cooler air aloft spills eastward into the evening hours. With stronger height falls also arriving, we maintained likely POPs even into Sunday evening.

The sfc cold front pushes through the Northeast overnight Sunday but continued southwest to westerly flow will keep us warm into Monday, albeit not as warm and humid. The main shortwave trough pushes eastward through the day and the incoming trough axis/wind shift should provide additional forcing for ascent to support renewed shower and thunderstorm activity, especially during the afternoon. A northerly wind shift Monday night should help provide some relief from the stretch of warm/muggy nights with temperatures trending back towards normal by late June standards.

Large scale subsidence builds into the Northeast for Tuesday, providing us a break for dry weather and increased sunshine.
Temperatures should remain slightly above normal as very warm air remain in the Midwest/Central US and winds becoming westerly over the Northeast should help redirect that air mass back into our area.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Any lingering MVFR fog at PSF dissipates by 12-13 UTC this morning, at the latest. Then, VFR conditions will mainly prevail through the rest of the TAF period. The exception will be during any periods of isolated to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms that develop.
Highest chances for afternoon storms (mainly developing by 17 - 19 UTC through sunset) look to be for GFL which will be closer to the periphery of the broad upper level ridge and thus closer to the "ridge roller" activity. ALB and PSF could see a brief shower or storm as well but activity should be more isolated. We therefore maintained PROB30 groups at GFL, PSF, and ALB for the afternoon (17 - 23 UTC) and show potential for MVFR visibility during any storms.
POU should experience stronger subsidence and therefore storms are more unlikely.

Any storms should dissipate by sunset. However, where storms can occur, fog may quickly develop towards or shortly after sunset given such a humid air mass staying in place. Included MVFR vis at GFL by 00 UTC/20 with potential for IFR vis/cigs given higher potential for this terminal to experience a storm. Maintained VFR conditions for ALB and PSF where storm coverage is more isolated and less certain on exact placement. If storms occur at ALB and PSF, MVFR or even brief IFR vis will be possible after 00 UTC/20.

South to southwesterly winds become sustained 5-8kts at all terminal by 15 - 17 UTC. Brief strong wind gusts are possible during any thunderstorms this afternoon (17 - 23 UTC), especially during any stronger storms. Winds turn light and variable after 00 UTC/20.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures...

Wednesday, June 19: Albany - 94 (1995)
Glens Falls - 97 (1995)
Poughkeepsie - 92 (1941, 1943, 1993, 2016)

Thursday, June 20: Albany - 97 (1953)
Glens Falls - 97 (1923)
Poughkeepsie - 96 (2012)

Friday, June 21: Albany - 97 (1938)
Glens Falls - 96 (2012)
Poughkeepsie - 97 (1949)

Record High Minimum Temperatures...

Wednesday, June 19: Albany - 71 (1976)
Glens Falls - 67 (1905, 1949, 1976, 2017)
Poughkeepsie - 73 (1993)

Thursday, June 20: Albany - 73 (1893)
Glens Falls - 68 (1964)
Poughkeepsie - 71 (1931)

Friday, June 21: Albany - 72 (1923)
Glens Falls - 71 (1953)
Poughkeepsie - 73 (1931)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ032-033-038>043- 047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ013>015.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 88 mi59 min0 78°F 30.3070°F




Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KDDH WILLIAM H MORSE STATE,VT 22 sm35 minWSW 0410 smClear84°F73°F70%30.33
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Wind History graph: DDH
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Tide / Current for Troy, Hudson River, New York
   
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Troy
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Wed -- 02:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:58 AM EDT     5.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:46 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:10 PM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:48 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
1.8
1
am
3.2
2
am
4.2
3
am
4.9
4
am
5.2
5
am
4.8
6
am
3.9
7
am
3
8
am
2.2
9
am
1.3
10
am
0.4
11
am
0.2
12
pm
0.9
1
pm
2
2
pm
2.9
3
pm
3.4
4
pm
3.7
5
pm
3.5
6
pm
2.8
7
pm
2
8
pm
1.5
9
pm
0.9
10
pm
0.4
11
pm
0.1


Tide / Current for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Wed -- 03:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:50 AM EDT     5.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:36 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:02 PM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:38 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Albany, New York, Tide feet
12
am
2
1
am
3.3
2
am
4.3
3
am
5
4
am
5.2
5
am
4.7
6
am
3.8
7
am
2.9
8
am
2.1
9
am
1.2
10
am
0.3
11
am
0.2
12
pm
1
1
pm
2.1
2
pm
3
3
pm
3.5
4
pm
3.7
5
pm
3.5
6
pm
2.7
7
pm
1.9
8
pm
1.4
9
pm
0.9
10
pm
0.3
11
pm
0.2


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast   
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Albany, NY,




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