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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 505 Pm Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
Tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then veering northeast after midnight rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Friday..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Rain likely through the day. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Friday night..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Rain through around midnight, then rain likely after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Saturday..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 302053 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 253 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

SHORT TERM
(Issued 253 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023)

Tonight through Friday night:

The weak cold frontal passage is underway but with mild temperatures across the area. The cold advection will quickly weaken tnt as the pressure gradient weakens and w-e high pressure sets up over central and nrn WI.

Meanwhile, a strong negative tilt shortwave trough currently over the TX panhandle will track to the MO/IL border by 12Z Fri, then de-amplifying as it tracks to the lower Great Lakes for the afternoon. The shortwave trough will outrun the sfc low, thus weakening of the sfc low is expected from the srn Plains to east central IL by 00Z Sat, and continued weakening afterward. Far srn WI will be on the nrn periphery of well organized lift from PVA and the left exit region of the 120 kt jet that is accompanying the shortwave trough. Thus the qpf gradient is over far se WI from barely measurable pcpn along a line from Darlington to Cedarburg with 0.25-0.35 inches forecast for far srn Walworth to much of Kenosha County. The warm lake temps and a lack of polar air will definitely keep pcpn type all rain at least within a few miles of the lake then a transition to snow. Snow accums will remain under an inch with the exception of Rock and Walworth Counties which could see 1-2 inches of wet and slushy snow accum.

Another vorticity maximum will then quickly follow for late afternoon and night with re-development of rain and snow. This time the pcpn shield will be larger, and likely along and south of a line from Darlington to Madison to Sheboygan. Rain will still be the primary pcpn type within a few miles of the lake with lgt snow accums under an inch inland.

Gehring

LONG TERM
(Issued 253 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023)

Saturday through Thursday:

A neutrally tilted trough in the jet sweeps through the midwest this weekend. PVA ahead of the 500mb trough develops a weak low pressure over the TX panhandle early Saturday morning, which then ejects northeastward. The previous low pressure system (on Friday)
leaves lingering sfc to 850mb moisture in our CWA, preconditioning the environment for this second low, which reaches IL by Sunday morning. Precip is expected to arrive Saturday evening / night, with peak chances (40 to 60%) between then and noon Sunday, followed by a gradual taper off from west to east.
The largest uncertainty with this event is precip type (either wet snow or rain). The NBM's dewpoint standard deviation is 2-3 Fahrenheit during the event, which would make all the difference.
That being said, ECMWF and GFS forecast soundings are currently at a consensus that northwest areas (towards Wisconsin Dells)
receive mostly wet snow with rain mixed in, while southeast areas (towards Kenosha) mostly receive rain. Only light accumulations are expected even where snow is favored, and Sunday's daytime high (mid to upper 30s, around 40 near the lakeshore) should be capable of melting it.

After an axis of high pressure provides quiet weather throughout the daytime hrs of Monday, a clipper system from southern Canada passes the southwestern tip of Wisconsin by Tuesday morning.
Precipitation from this system is timed for Monday night to Tuesday evening. Similar to the previous event, a rain snow mix is the most likely scenario, with snow dominant towards Wisconsin Dells and rain dominant towards Kenosha. But ensembles remain too uncertain with temps and dewpoints to paint a clear picture. Said uncertainty is likely due to the exact storm track, and whether it passes directly overhead or to our southwest.

Some ridging in the jet is expected later in the week (Wednesday and onwards), which should result in drier weather. 500mb heights are expected to rise 10 to 14 dam from 06z-18z Wednesday, with ensembles expecting daytime highs to climb into the 40s by Thursday.

Sheppard

AVIATION
(Issued 253 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023)

VFR conditions into tnt, although MVFR Cigs may develop during the early Thu AM hours from MKE to ENW due to lake effect clouds.
After sunrise on Thu, MVFR Cigs will spread nwd from IL and toward central WI. Cigs will also drop below 1 kft mainly along and south of a line from Madison to Port Washington through the day.
Rain and snow will accompany the low Cigs but mainly south of a line from Madison to Port Washington. Mostly rain is expected near Lake MI from MKE to ENW. Vsbys will fall to 1-3SM with the precipitation. Another round of lgt snow and rain is then expected Fri nt with low Cigs continuing, and vsbys of 1-3SM with the precipitation.

Gehring

MARINE
(Issued 253 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023)

Breezy west winds this afternoon shifting to modest northerly winds this evening with the passage of a cold front. Brisk east to northeast winds will then develop for Friday into Friday evening over central and southern sections of the lake, as low pressure over the southern Great Plains tracks into northern Indiana Friday evening and onto the lower Great Lakes later at night. Light to modest east to northeast winds will then prevail for Saturday into Saturday night.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect Friday and Friday evening due to waves of 3 to 5 feet on persistent enely winds of 15-20 kts.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 AM Friday to midnight Saturday.

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