Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 6:41 PM   Moonset 4:04 AM

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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 105 Am Cdt Tue May 21 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Wednesday morning - .
Rest of tonight - North wind 5 knots veering east early in the morning. Patchy fog. Waves around 1 foot. Tuesday - East wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast late in the morning, then rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Areas of fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.Tuesday night - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots veering south 15 to 25 knots late in the evening, then veering southwest after midnight easing to 10 to 20 knots early in the morning. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots veering west 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late morning and afternoon.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 210302 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1002 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy to areas of fog will be possible overnight into Tuesday morning, especially fro areas that saw rainfall today.

- A complex severe weather event is expected for Tuesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected. The greatest severe weather threat continues to be Tuesday evening.

- All severe weather hazards will be possible Tuesday evening, including strong winds, large to very large hail, and tornadoes.

UPDATE
Issued 945 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Light winds and lingering moisture behind today's thunderstorms is resulting in patchy to widespread fog development now through the early morning hours. Could see areas of dense fog develop as well. Otherwise, focus is on Tuesday where multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected to impact southern WI.
Developing/ongoing storms upstream in IA still look to move into southwestern WI and decaying early Tuesday morning. This first round will mainly impact areas north and west of Madison and while chances are lower, cannot rule out some of these elevated storms producing some small hail and gusty winds. Then a second round looks possible late morning early afternoon as the warm front lift northward with the deepening low. Given the developing convection near the frontal boundary, could not only see hail and damaging winds with this second round, but also cannot rule out tornadoes given better low-level shear along the boundary. CAMs have this activity moving out and another brief lull allowing the environment to recover before the main line of storms develops and moves through ahead of the cold front in the evening. Will see all severe hazards possible with the third round of activity. Large hail and tornadoes will be more likely when storms are isolated/developing and more supercellular, but are progged to merge into a large squall line where damaging winds and embedded QLCS tornado threat increase as the convective modes change/congeal and surge east.

While the severe potential continue to look favorable,especially Tuesday evening will need to monitor as storms earlier in the day storm may impact later development. Nevertheless given the dynamics of this system, things continue to look favorable for a few rounds of severe weather.

Wagner

SHORT TERM
Issued 248 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Rest of this Afternoon through Tuesday night:

Convection is ongoing across the region this afternoon, associated with a convectively enhanced shortwave/MCV working through the area. Strong southerly flow associated with this feature has helped bring a warm front north into extreme southeastern Wisconsin, with reinforcing east to northeast flow along and north of the track of the MCV. Convection will continue to develop and push east through early evening, with occasional strong/severe storms producing large hail and gusty winds.

The evening hours tonight should be fairly quiet, with the region within an area of subsidence behind the departing MCV. A weak pressure gradient combined with the moist airmass will pose a fog threat overnight, especially over the eastern half of the area. Some areas of dense fog will be possible.

The nose of a low level jet then begins to push into the area from the west and southwest late tonight/early Tuesday. An initial area of elevated thunderstorms will likely push into the area during the predawn hours. Locations north and west of Madison will have the greatest chance of seeing convection, with considerable uncertainty as to how far east this activity makes it before pushing north.

By late morning, a warm front will lift into the region as low pressure deepens across Minnesota. Despite the convection along/north of the warm front, very deep and strong southerly flow will favor a more progressive northward movement to the front. This should put nearly all of the CWA solidly within the warm sector by mid afternoon. From that point forward, things will really depend on where exactly convection fires east of the cold front in Iowa. There could be one round as early as mid afternoon, if storms develop along a prefrontal trough just west of the Mississippi River, but this is uncertain. The front will eventually surge eastward during the evening, clearing the area around midnight. Storms are very likely along the front as it moves east.

While the outcome will ultimately depend on "game day" mesoscale details, this is a very dynamic system with a very favorable airmass ahead of it. Some combination of supercells and QLCS(s)
are probable. Very steep mid level lapse rates and appreciable low and mid level shear will pose a threat for tornadoes and very large hail with any supercells. If/when cold pools begin to congeal, one or more strong QLCSs could develop, with an attendant wind and QLCS tornado threat.

Boxell

LONG TERM
Issued 248 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Wednesday through Monday:

The low pressure associated with Tuesday's thunderstorms will continue propagating northward into Canada on Wednesday, with gusty west winds, cold air advection, and decreasing cloud coverage across southern Wisconsin in response. Upper level ridging and high pressure will build into the Midwest Wednesday afternoon into Thursday allowing for drier weather through Friday morning.

A shortwave trough and associated surface low pressure system will approach Wisconsin on Friday, leading to the next chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. The GFS and Euro look to be in better agreement regarding timing of this system, but the GFS continues to be a little more rambunctious regarding shower/thunderstorm development and QPF Saturday morning, especially near the Wisconsin/Illinois border.

Another shortwave looks to move across the state during the day on Saturday which will help support chances for showers and thunderstorms. Weak ridging moves into the region on Sunday and Monday leading to lower precipitation chances before another upper trough propagates towards the region Monday afternoon.

Falkinham

AVIATION
Issued 945 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Expecting to see lower ceilings and fog develop tonight given the light flow and saturated low-levels. Most terminals can expect to see MVFR to IFR visibilities and ceilings and could see LIFR/dense fog develop in some spots as well. Fog will persist through the early Tuesday morning and maybe a bit longer closer to the Lake before the first round of showers and storms push into southwestern WI and decay around daybreak. Then the warm front lift north and will see winds shift an a second round of showers and storms develop late morning into the early afternoon. Then expecting to see a few lull before the main line of showers and strong to severe storm pushes west to east across WI/IL Tuesday evening. With each round of storms, expect terminals to experience drops in visibility and ceilings before recovering. Also could see strong gusts and hail as well.

Wagner

MARINE
Issued 248 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Southeast winds will turn southwesterly for a time late this afternoon over the southern third of the lake, as a compact area of low pressure moves through the area. Winds then turn westerly tonight.

Winds will turn more south to southeasterly again Tuesday. Breezy southerly winds are expected as a deepening low pressure approaches the Upper Great Lakes Region and tracks northeast into Wednesday. There looks to be periods of thunderstorms over the lake, especially southern portions Monday through Wednesday morning. Small Craft conditions are likely Tuesday afternoon and night.

Boxell

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ645-LMZ646...10 PM Tuesday to 10 AM Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...10 PM Tuesday to 4 PM Wednesday.

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