Monday, April6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Huron, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 8:03PM Monday April 6, 2020 6:02 PM EDT (22:02 UTC) Moonrise 5:22PMMoonset 5:39AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 343 Pm Edt Mon Apr 6 2020
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ443 Expires:202004070315;;674020 FZUS53 KDTX 061943 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 343 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ443-070315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Huron, MI
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location: 43.04, -82.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 061926 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 326 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

DISCUSSION.

Extensive stratus canopy extending from the southern Plains into the northern Great Lakes continues to make steady inroads toward Lower Michigan this afternoon. Their appearance on channel 2 isn't particularly impressive as there are plenty of breaks and variations in texture especially over the Mid MS Valley. Observations of fog/dz over Missouri/eastern Kansas are also relatively sparse supporting nudging expectations over Southeast Michigan toward a lower prevalence, except perhaps near Lakes Erie and Saint Clair. Incoming clouds will raise the floor on overnight lows to the mid 40s over the far southwest CWA and low 40s most other locations. Upper 30s in the Thumb with only mid/high cloud contend with. As the nocturnal LLJ ramps again tonight, it is worth noting that it was able to produce some elevated thunder over southwest Iowa early this morning despite a marginal mid-level thermodynamic profile and non-existent low-level forcing. As this environment translates toward Lower MI much better surface-925mb frontal forcing awaits. This will provide a focus for organized precipitation development along/south of I-94 as the night wears on. Most favorable timing aligns with the arrival of mid-level forcing in the 10-15z window. It is during this period when some thunder may also be possible nearest the Ohio border.

Thunder and shower potential steadily diminish through late morning and early afternoon leaving behind a moist low-level environment and an abundance of stratus trapped beneath the frontal inversion. A light southeasterly component will keep temperatures in the upper 40s near the shorelines with 50s expected over the northeastern two thirds of the CWA. In fact, the Thumb may pop a few upper 50s or even a 60 given the slow northward expansion of stratus. Intensity and duration of late night/early morning showers will largely dictate the degree of temperature recovery over the southern CWA during the afternoon as the warm sector bulges northward. Given the transient nature of the forcing, marginal instability, and building height rises, the preference is lean toward allowing southwesterly flow to win-out. This will support a strong temperature push into the mid 60s along and south of an Ann Arbor-to-Temperance line.

Attention turns to Tuesday night as as northward progress of the surface warm front through this point will dictate the threat for surface based convection after 00z. Strong model consensus that strengthening deep layer westerly flow will advect steep elevated lapse rates in excess of 7.5C/km over Lower MI 18-03z. While some disorganized elevated convection may trigger off the warm nose in response to strengthening 850mb flow late Tuesday afternoon, better potential for convection arrives with the incoming weak PV anomaly 00-04z Tuesday night. The strongly sheared (45-50kt) H7-H3 effective layer within this environment will be easily capable of producing one inch hail within stronger updrafts even in the absence of surface based convection. The most vigorous updrafts will be strongly modulated by the deep westerly momentum field. As a result, bowing or rear inflows may be of sufficient strength to penetrate the developing nocturnal inversion in the warm sector bringing an isolated/marginal wind threat as well. Although the wind threat north of the warm front is nil, there is some concern that the reservoir of greater elevated instability will advance sufficiently northward to support an eventual expansion of the noted hail threat to encompass the entire CWA. Peak threat in the 00-04z period, though isolated t-storms as early as 21z not out of the question.

Wednesday characterized by early day clearing under strong dry advection and increasing mid level subsidence yielding mostly sunny skies and highs rebounding into the 60s. Deep closed polar low pivots through the northeastern US Wednesday night through Thursday bringing a quick shot of rain and a trailing uptick in wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph within strong cold advection. Highs Thursday and Friday in the 40s.

MARINE.

Lighter southerly winds will continue through the evening as high pressure pushes off to the east. Moisture will be on the increase through the overnight hours as low pressure progresses into the region. Expect limited winds and wave action with chances for a few showers overnight. A more concentrated area of showers with some occasional thunder will lift through Tuesday evening. Large-scale surface pressure field will remain largely unperturbed from this disturbance as winds hold in the 10-15 knot range in the southeast quadrant. High pressure temporarily builds in from the Plains on Wednesday before additional wet weather arrives Wednesday night. This will force stronger winds on Thursday with 30+ knot gusts tied to a strong low-level wind field once mixing gets underway Thursday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY.

Periodic showers are expected to lift across Southeast Michigan tonight through Wednesday night, particularly during the overnight hours each night. The first round tracks through tonight, mainly across areas generally south of the M-59 corridor. Highest rainfall totals expected near the Ohio border, where amounts upward of .3" will be possible through Tuesday morning. Potential for more a widespread area of rain, along with elevated thunderstorms, exists Tuesday night. Once again, rainfall totals generally around at or below a quarter of an inch, although some localized higher amounts are possible within any thunderstorms. A final round of rainfall accompanying a cold front Wednesday night appears quick hitting, currently favoring amounts below one quarter inch. All told, these amounts are not expected to contribute to flooding concerns.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1257 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

AVIATION .

A warm front developing in the Ohio valley today approaches the southern Michigan border tonight. The front brings a chance of showers to the DTW corridor up toward PTK after midnight along with lower ceiling. Guidance looks reasonable with projections of IFR by Tuesday morning at DTW up to PTK including fog/drizzle and cool easterly wind with additional showers at times. The warm front is slow to move much farther north during the day which suggests mainly MVFR stratus from FNT to mbS until Tuesday night.

For DTW . VFR consists of thickening high clouds for the rest of today before ceiling drops toward 5000 ft by late evening and then MVFR after midnight. Rain showers increase coverage after midnight as well along with development of IFR ceiling and fog toward sunrise. Cool SE wind holds tonight through Tuesday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling 5 kft or less after midnight through Tuesday.

* Low for ceiling/visibility below 200ft and/or 1/2SM late tonight and Tuesday morning.

* Low for a thunderstorms tonight.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . JVC MARINE . SP HYDROLOGY . BT AVIATION . BT

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 4 mi51 min S 5.1 G 11 56°F 1016.8 hPa19°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 6 mi51 min 57°F 1017 hPa
AGCM4 30 mi51 min 50°F 41°F1017.4 hPa
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi63 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1 46°F 1018.3 hPa (-2.4)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI13 mi67 minSSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F8°F15%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9E11E12E8NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E5--SE6SE7SE8SE6E5
1 day agoCalmCalmNW5W4NW7NW7NW8NW9NW10N11N7N10N8N7N7N9N11N11N11N10N11N6NE7N9
2 days agoE9E14E10E6NW3N4N6N4N4--CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmS3E5E6E3S6SE7SE5SE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.