Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Huron, MI
March 15, 2024 1:21 AM EDT (05:21 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:38 AM Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 9:25 AM Moonset 12:27 AM |
LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 933 Pm Edt Thu Mar 14 2024
Rest of tonight - North winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Cloudy. Numerous showers this evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ400
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 150230 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1030 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Drier weather returns Friday with above normal temperatures holding through Saturday.
- Near to below normal temperatures arrive Sunday and linger through Tuesday. Some periods of light snow showers possible in this timeframe.
AVIATION
Shallow post frontal cold air advection ongoing across Se Mi will sustain IFR and perhaps some lingering LIFR during the early portion of the overnight as the cool air undercuts lingering moisture.
Ongoing areas of light rain will diminsish overnight as elevated frontal forcing continues to wane. Model soundings suggest some increase in the depth of the inversion overnight into Friday morning. This will make MVFR ceilings more probable during the course of the night. A push of drier air from the north is likely to cause conditiosn to improve to VFR at mbS for a time. Model soundings suggest the dry air will be slow to push into Se Mi on Friday, but recent indications are lending support to a clearing trend during the afternoon.
For DTW...IFR conditions are expected to hold for several more hours, with the prospects for prevailing MVFR toward morning as a little drier air attemps to advect in from the north.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight and Friday morning.
Moderate Friday afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 802 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
UPDATE...
The main instability axis is southeast of the forecast area. The risk of evening thunderstorms is now very low and the chance of anything severe has ended. The forecast has been updated to remove the mention of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
DISCUSSION...
Northern edge of storms now working across OH have held just south of the state line resulting in only widespread showers with some rumbles of thunder for areas south of I-94 to the border. That said, this area remains under a marginal risk due to the potential for additional storm development this evening. This scenario still carries high uncertainty as its entirely dependent on how well instability is able to build back into southern lower MI. Satellite shows a robust clearing trend across IL that is pushing east in IN early this afternoon with mesoanalysis depicting between 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in this region. Timing the tailedge of this cloud puts it over Lenawee county around 20Z which offers only a modest window for destabilization given the mid-March sun and ~3hrs until sunset. With the surface low tracking along the warm front this evening, should any surface based storm develop in the warm sector/along the front, all hazards would be possible. For areas to the north, showers and isolated thunderstorms (south of I-69)
persist through this evening before tapering off late evening with the departure of the low.
Low pressure vacates the region late this evening ushering in drier, slightly cooler northerly flow in its wake. Mid-level drying is amplified Friday as the compressed eastern edge of High Plains high pressure builds overhead. Despite this, forecast soundings continue to suggest insufficient mixing/lower level dry air advection to fully scour out the lingering stratus layer until Friday evening for most areas (afternoon for the Tri-Cities). As a result, expecting a cooler, albeit still above average, day with highs around 50 (give or take a couple degrees on either side) for the bulk of SE MI.
Should clearing overachieve, lower to mid 50s can be expected.
Exception will be the Thumb where flow directly off Lake Huron keeps temps in the mid to low 40s.
Mild temps briefly make a return Saturday as deeper layer southwest flow develops in advance of a mid-upper trough digging south out of Manitoba supporting widespread mid 50 highs (perhaps upper 50s in the southern CWA). Aforementioned trough is then set to reach the central Great Lakes late day Saturday with its attendant cold front sweeping through Saturday evening/early night. Moisture quality will be the limiting factor for precip potential given the wave's northern continental origin as well as the resident dry airmass over SE MI at that point. For now, an isolated shower mention seems appropriate. Worth noting that mid range model solutions have been keying on window for enhanced coverage/intensity Saturday night as the northern wave phases with the southern jet over the Ohio Valley resulting in a region of stronger upper divergence; however, this looks to occur shortly after the front crosses Detroit confining this activity just to our south over Ohio.
Much colder airmass, relative to late, settles over the Great Lakes Sunday through Tuesday keeping temperatures at or even slightly below normal for mid-March standards. A few shortwave impulses embedded within the parent upper trough offer low-end chances for lake effect/enhanced snow showers during this period, particularly Sunday night and Monday, though only minor accumulations expected at this time. Upper jet gradually trends more zonal through the mid/late week allowing a moderation of temperatures back to above normal.
MARINE...
A few more hours of showers and thunderstorms occur this evening as low pressure tracks from southern Lake Michigan eastward across Lake Erie tonight. As the low exits eastward, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect tonight and Friday for Saginaw Bay and southern Lake Huron, the main concern being a surge of N/NE wind following the system tonight. Funneling down the Bay and along the Thumb shoreline is expected to compensate for stability that would otherwise limit the wind response. Northerly flow that is more marginal in character but maintains higher waves continues through Friday ahead of high pressure that briefly settles over the region Friday night. A larger low pressure system then approaches from central Canada Saturday that quickly ramps up SW wind and waves to near Small Craft thresholds. The low tracks north of Lake Huron Saturday night while pulling multiple cold fronts across the Great Lakes Sunday. A turn toward below normal temperatures maintains a higher wind and wave regime into early next week.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LHZ421-441.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LHZ442.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1030 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Drier weather returns Friday with above normal temperatures holding through Saturday.
- Near to below normal temperatures arrive Sunday and linger through Tuesday. Some periods of light snow showers possible in this timeframe.
AVIATION
Shallow post frontal cold air advection ongoing across Se Mi will sustain IFR and perhaps some lingering LIFR during the early portion of the overnight as the cool air undercuts lingering moisture.
Ongoing areas of light rain will diminsish overnight as elevated frontal forcing continues to wane. Model soundings suggest some increase in the depth of the inversion overnight into Friday morning. This will make MVFR ceilings more probable during the course of the night. A push of drier air from the north is likely to cause conditiosn to improve to VFR at mbS for a time. Model soundings suggest the dry air will be slow to push into Se Mi on Friday, but recent indications are lending support to a clearing trend during the afternoon.
For DTW...IFR conditions are expected to hold for several more hours, with the prospects for prevailing MVFR toward morning as a little drier air attemps to advect in from the north.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight and Friday morning.
Moderate Friday afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 802 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
UPDATE...
The main instability axis is southeast of the forecast area. The risk of evening thunderstorms is now very low and the chance of anything severe has ended. The forecast has been updated to remove the mention of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
DISCUSSION...
Northern edge of storms now working across OH have held just south of the state line resulting in only widespread showers with some rumbles of thunder for areas south of I-94 to the border. That said, this area remains under a marginal risk due to the potential for additional storm development this evening. This scenario still carries high uncertainty as its entirely dependent on how well instability is able to build back into southern lower MI. Satellite shows a robust clearing trend across IL that is pushing east in IN early this afternoon with mesoanalysis depicting between 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in this region. Timing the tailedge of this cloud puts it over Lenawee county around 20Z which offers only a modest window for destabilization given the mid-March sun and ~3hrs until sunset. With the surface low tracking along the warm front this evening, should any surface based storm develop in the warm sector/along the front, all hazards would be possible. For areas to the north, showers and isolated thunderstorms (south of I-69)
persist through this evening before tapering off late evening with the departure of the low.
Low pressure vacates the region late this evening ushering in drier, slightly cooler northerly flow in its wake. Mid-level drying is amplified Friday as the compressed eastern edge of High Plains high pressure builds overhead. Despite this, forecast soundings continue to suggest insufficient mixing/lower level dry air advection to fully scour out the lingering stratus layer until Friday evening for most areas (afternoon for the Tri-Cities). As a result, expecting a cooler, albeit still above average, day with highs around 50 (give or take a couple degrees on either side) for the bulk of SE MI.
Should clearing overachieve, lower to mid 50s can be expected.
Exception will be the Thumb where flow directly off Lake Huron keeps temps in the mid to low 40s.
Mild temps briefly make a return Saturday as deeper layer southwest flow develops in advance of a mid-upper trough digging south out of Manitoba supporting widespread mid 50 highs (perhaps upper 50s in the southern CWA). Aforementioned trough is then set to reach the central Great Lakes late day Saturday with its attendant cold front sweeping through Saturday evening/early night. Moisture quality will be the limiting factor for precip potential given the wave's northern continental origin as well as the resident dry airmass over SE MI at that point. For now, an isolated shower mention seems appropriate. Worth noting that mid range model solutions have been keying on window for enhanced coverage/intensity Saturday night as the northern wave phases with the southern jet over the Ohio Valley resulting in a region of stronger upper divergence; however, this looks to occur shortly after the front crosses Detroit confining this activity just to our south over Ohio.
Much colder airmass, relative to late, settles over the Great Lakes Sunday through Tuesday keeping temperatures at or even slightly below normal for mid-March standards. A few shortwave impulses embedded within the parent upper trough offer low-end chances for lake effect/enhanced snow showers during this period, particularly Sunday night and Monday, though only minor accumulations expected at this time. Upper jet gradually trends more zonal through the mid/late week allowing a moderation of temperatures back to above normal.
MARINE...
A few more hours of showers and thunderstorms occur this evening as low pressure tracks from southern Lake Michigan eastward across Lake Erie tonight. As the low exits eastward, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect tonight and Friday for Saginaw Bay and southern Lake Huron, the main concern being a surge of N/NE wind following the system tonight. Funneling down the Bay and along the Thumb shoreline is expected to compensate for stability that would otherwise limit the wind response. Northerly flow that is more marginal in character but maintains higher waves continues through Friday ahead of high pressure that briefly settles over the region Friday night. A larger low pressure system then approaches from central Canada Saturday that quickly ramps up SW wind and waves to near Small Craft thresholds. The low tracks north of Lake Huron Saturday night while pulling multiple cold fronts across the Great Lakes Sunday. A turn toward below normal temperatures maintains a higher wind and wave regime into early next week.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LHZ421-441.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LHZ442.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI | 4 mi | 51 min | N 20G | 40°F | 29.80 | 39°F | ||
PBWM4 | 5 mi | 51 min | 40°F | 29.81 | ||||
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI | 6 mi | 51 min | 41°F | 29.80 | ||||
AGCM4 | 30 mi | 51 min | 43°F | 38°F | 29.78 | |||
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI | 48 mi | 81 min | NNW 5.1G | 45°F | 29.85 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
CYZR SARNIA CHRIS HADFIELD,CN | 3 sm | 21 min | N 16G22 | 9 sm | Overcast | 41°F | 39°F | 93% | 29.82 | |
KPHN ST CLAIR COUNTY INTL,MI | 13 sm | 26 min | N 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 43°F | 39°F | 87% | 29.84 |
Detroit, MI,
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