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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 208 Pm Pst Tue Dec 5 2023
.hazardous seas warning in effect through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..S wind 30 kt...easing to 15 to 25 kt early in the evening, then...veering to sw 15 to 20 kt late in the evening... Easing to 5 to 15 kt after midnight...veering to W 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves sw 6 ft at 8 seconds. SWell W 10 to 13 ft at 13 seconds...building to W 15 to 17 ft at 17 seconds. Rain.
Wed..N wind 5 kt...backing to W early in the afternoon, then... Backing to sw late in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 13 to 15 ft at 16 seconds. Rain in the morning, then showers and slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW wind 10 kt...rising to 15 to 25 kt in the late evening and early morning, then...becoming 15 to 20 kt early in the morning. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 11 to 13 ft at 15 seconds. Showers and chance of tstms.
Thu..S wind 15 to 25 kt...veering to W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 6 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 10 to 12 ft at 14 seconds. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Thu night..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves W 5 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 10 to 13 ft at 12 seconds. Showers and slight chance of tstms in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Fri..S wind 5 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 9 to 10 ft at 12 seconds. Rain likely.
Fri night..SE wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to S 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 8 to 9 ft at 11 seconds. Rain.
Sat..S wind 30 kt...becoming sw 20 kt in the evening, then... Becoming nw 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 5 secondswind waves sw 10 ft at 8 seconds in the afternoon and evening, thenwind waves sw 4 ft at 4 seconds after midnight. W swell 8 ft at 11 seconds...building to 10 ft at 11 seconds. SWell less than 2 ft.
Sun..NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves ne 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 10 ft at 11 seconds...subsiding to 8 ft at 11 seconds. SWell less than 2 ft.

PZZ300 208 Pm Pst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A very large and very steep long period west swell arrives this evening into early Wednesday. Additional disturbances during the second half of the week will likely result in periods of gusty winds and steep to very steep seas.

FXUS66 KMFR 052319 AAA AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 319 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

SHORT TERM
After a brief lull in the wet and active pattern today, the wet and active pattern will return shortly with the next front moving into the northern coast at this time. This pause has allowed the Coquille at Coquille to subside below warning stage, and the flood warning has been cancelled. However, periods of heavy rain are expected once again near the coast tonight into Wednesday and the areal flood watch continues in this area into tomorrow afternoon. With very saturated soils the possibility of additional mud and debris slides is more than slight. As the front moves inland winds ahead of it will increase, and wind advisories are in place in the Shasta valley and portions east of the Cascades Wednesday. Advisory strength winds are also possible on the ridges across the region, but should not surface into populated areas. as the front moves inland snow level start at around 7000 feet or higher, dropping below 4000 feet late Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, and finally leveling off to around 3500 feet by Thursday morning. A winter weather advisory has been issued for the Cascades, and for western Siskiyou county and the Mt Shasta area above 3500 feet. some portions east of the Cascades will also see advisory snow amounts.


LONG TERM
Thursday morning through Monday...An upper level shortwave will impact the region Thursday morning...with colder air moving into the region lowering snow levels as precipitation remains in the area. Snow levels will hover around 3,500 feet with all of the short term models in good agreement regarding precipitation through much of the region. As far as snow amounts...there is between a 50% and 75% for much of the southern Cascades and the Siskiyou mountains of at least 4 inches of snow in a 6 hour period ending late Thursday morning
In fact
right around Crater Lake...there is about a 50% chance of 6 inches of snow in a 6 hour period from early to mid Thursday morning. We will continue to monitor the snow situation closely...as winter products may be needed.

Upper level northwest flow takes over late Thursday night into Friday morning
with snow levels dropping again
to between 2000 and 2500 feet
By this time
the bulk of the precipitation will have moved east...but a few showers will continue to linger. A dusting to a few inches of snow will be possible in and around 2,500 feet.

Upper level high pressure will nudge east Friday afternoon into the weekend as seen in both the meteograms and in the clusters. In fact...by Saturday afternoon all of the clusters indicate ridging over the west coast...adding to the confidence in a break in the weather. Uncertainty sneaks into the forecast during the second half of the weekend into early next week as there is quite a bit of disagreements in the upper level pattern.

AVIATION
06/00Z TAFs...A front will approach the region this evening, then pass over the area through the day Wednesday. Expect VFR to MVFR conditions, but IFR ceilings and visibilities will occur as precipitation rates increase to moderate to heavy amounts, especially along the coast and in the coastal mountains. Terrain obscuration will be a concern as well tonight, spreading from west to east with the precipitation. The Freezing level will be start around 7000 feet MSL this evening and begin dropping to about 4500 ft MSL by the end of the TAF period. -Schaaf

MARINE
Updated 100 PM Tuesday December 5, 2023...An active period of weather will continue this week over the waters. Gusty south to southwest winds will be common, along with southerly wind waves and long period west swell.

A very large and steep seas of around 15 to 19 ft will continue to build to a peak around 16 to 22 ft this evening into early Wednesday morning. During this same time period, wind speeds are forecast to weaken slightly. However, since seas are still expected to remain very large, this will result in a Hazardous Seas Warning across all the waters Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Additional disturbances Wednesday and Thursday will not be as strong, with southerly winds likely at advisory strength while high and steep seas slowly diminish. Winds and seas will reach a minimum late Friday, then another strong front is likely Saturday with gales possible.
-Schaaf/DW

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for ORZ029>031.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 PM PST Thursday for ORZ030-031.

Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ORZ021>024.

High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ021-022.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM PST Friday above 3500 feet for ORZ024-027-028.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 PM PST Thursday above 3500 feet for CAZ080-082-083.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ081.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ084-085.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Charleston
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Tue -- 06:41 AM PST     6.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:33 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:45 PM PST     3.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:12 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:41 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:51 PM PST     5.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston, Oregon (2), Tide feet

Charleston
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Tue -- 06:30 AM PST     6.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:33 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:30 PM PST     3.59 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:12 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:41 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:47 PM PST     5.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston, Oregon, Tide feet

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Medford, OR,