Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Myrtle Creek, OR
November 29, 2023 7:21 PM PST (03:21 UTC)
Sunrise 7:21AM Sunset 4:41PM Moonrise 6:27PM Moonset 10:06AM
PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 250 Pm Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
.hazardous seas warning in effect from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..N wind 5 kt...backing to sw after midnight. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 12 seconds. Slight chance of rain in the evening.
Thu..SW wind 5 to 15 kt...veering to W in the afternoon. Wind waves W 3 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 5 ft at 13 seconds...shifting to the W 6 to 7 ft at 12 seconds in the afternoon. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Thu night..W wind 10 to 15 kt...backing to sw 15 to 25 kt early in the morning. Wind waves W 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 7 to 8 ft at 12 seconds...building to 9 to 10 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. Slight chance of tstms in the evening. Showers through the night.
Fri..SW wind 15 to 25 kt...easing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves W 6 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 10 to 11 ft at 11 seconds. Rain in the morning, then showers and slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW wind 10 to 15 kt...rising to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 10 to 11 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Sat..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 6 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 11 to 12 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Sat night..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves W 5 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 12 ft at 14 seconds. Rain.
Sun..SW wind 25 kt...rising to 30 kt in the afternoon, then... Easing to 25 kt in the evening...easing to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves W 9 ft at 8 seconds... Becoming sw 4 ft at 5 seconds after midnight. SWell W 14 ft at 14 seconds.
Mon..S wind 20 kt...rising to 25 kt. Wind waves S 5 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 14 ft at 15 seconds... Subsiding to 11 ft at 12 seconds. SWell less than 2 ft.
.hazardous seas warning in effect from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..N wind 5 kt...backing to sw after midnight. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 12 seconds. Slight chance of rain in the evening.
Thu..SW wind 5 to 15 kt...veering to W in the afternoon. Wind waves W 3 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 5 ft at 13 seconds...shifting to the W 6 to 7 ft at 12 seconds in the afternoon. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Thu night..W wind 10 to 15 kt...backing to sw 15 to 25 kt early in the morning. Wind waves W 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 7 to 8 ft at 12 seconds...building to 9 to 10 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. Slight chance of tstms in the evening. Showers through the night.
Fri..SW wind 15 to 25 kt...easing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves W 6 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 10 to 11 ft at 11 seconds. Rain in the morning, then showers and slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW wind 10 to 15 kt...rising to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 10 to 11 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Sat..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 6 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 11 to 12 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Sat night..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves W 5 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 12 ft at 14 seconds. Rain.
Sun..SW wind 25 kt...rising to 30 kt in the afternoon, then... Easing to 25 kt in the evening...easing to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves W 9 ft at 8 seconds... Becoming sw 4 ft at 5 seconds after midnight. SWell W 14 ft at 14 seconds.
Mon..S wind 20 kt...rising to 25 kt. Wind waves S 5 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 14 ft at 15 seconds... Subsiding to 11 ft at 12 seconds. SWell less than 2 ft.
PZZ300 250 Pm Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Relatively calm conditions will persist through tonight. Active weather returns early Thursday and persists into next week. Multiple fronts and swell trains will pass through the region during this time, resulting in steep to very steep seas and periods of strong south winds. Conditions hazardous to small craft will return for the outer waters on Thursday with very steep warning level seas developing north of port orford by Thursday night due to large swell and wind seas. Elevated seas with conditions hazardous to small craft are likely to persist into early next week.
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Relatively calm conditions will persist through tonight. Active weather returns early Thursday and persists into next week. Multiple fronts and swell trains will pass through the region during this time, resulting in steep to very steep seas and periods of strong south winds. Conditions hazardous to small craft will return for the outer waters on Thursday with very steep warning level seas developing north of port orford by Thursday night due to large swell and wind seas. Elevated seas with conditions hazardous to small craft are likely to persist into early next week.
Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 300013 AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 308 PM PST Wed Nov 29 2023
SYNOPSIS
A significant Cascade snow event will hit the region Thursday through early Sunday. Travel impacts are anticipated over the multi day event.
SHORT TERM
There is plenty of cloud cover on satellite this afternoon as some moisture moves in ahead of the next wave and frontal system around Thursday afternoon. Current weather impacts remain the air stagnation advisory. The air will generally become less stagnant from now into Thursday, although mixing heights should remain under 1000 feet with some very light boundary layer winds into Thursday morning, so we just kept the air stagnation advisory out as is.
Our concern then turns to winter weather as an upper level wave and cold front moves towards the region around mid day Thursday.
Snow levels start out around 4000 feet before falling to 3000 to 3500 feet Thursday evening once the cold front passes. Snow accumulations with this first wave will be around 4 to 8 inches with the highest totals around Crater Lake and Lake of the Woods.
The Siskiyous and other higher terrain will see some snowfall, although it will be generally around or less than 4 inches.
There should be a brief lull in the snow accumulation around Thursday night as the upper level wave passes through, and there should be some sinking motion in the mid layers of the atmosphere.
Otherwise, moist northwest to west flow and orographic lift will quickly resume by Friday and persist into Saturday under another short wave. Snow levels will start out at 4000 feet Friday morning and gradually rise to 5000 feet by Saturday morning. The snowfall accumulation will be most pronounced over the higher Cascades around Crater Lake given the westerly 40 knot winds at 4500 feet.
Total snowfall is anticipated to reach up to 36 inches around Crater Lake through 12Z Sunday. It is fairly impressive given that we also reduced snow ratios a bit from what the NBM usually puts out. The NBM has a ~65-70% chance of 36 inches for that location.
In any case, impacts will be significant above 5000 feet through this event and one may struggle to travel through Diamond Lake Friday night into Saturday.
Winds are also anticipated to be a concern as all this weather moves through. Winds around 9000 feet above sea level should reach about 50 knots east and over the Cascades around mid day Friday. Looking at some soundings, the atmosphere appears to be well mixed during this time suggesting wind gusts up to 45 mph seems likely. This isn't as big of a concern on Friday since snowfall is on the lighter side during the day. However, the winds appear to strengthen on Saturday with some of the snowfall rates picking up. The biggest concern will be along highway 97, which always seems to see some impacts and a lot of blowing snow with these Cascade snow storms. Winds could expand farther to the east impacting most of Lake County, however the snowfall rates and accumulations drop off significantly over there.
Finally, the leading edge of an atmospheric river has a high probability to hit the region early Sunday based on the latest data. Snow levels will increase up to 6000 or perhaps 7000 feet across the forecast area.
-Smith
LONG TERM
Sunday (12/3) through Wednesday (12/6)...The active pattern will continue into the extended period. There is some wide variation across the model suites regarding the timing and nature of the individual systems (with one landfalling storm system around Sunday and another around Tuesday night or Wednesday), and due to this, the mean solutions and NBM are drawing precipitation chances out over the entire period. However, nearly all solutions have some kind of larger amplitude ridge building in over the area Monday into Tuesday, which implies some kind of break in between the action. Given the timing differences, it is hard to nail down exactly when the rain will occur and when the break will be. An attempt was made to illustrate this better within the official forecast, and although a glance at the forecast products would suggest there is a constant threat of precipitation, we are fairly confident that there will be a roughly 24 hour break in the action early next week. Hopefully the timing details will become clearer over the next several forecast cycles.
The only potential forecast concerns, in terms of impact, will be the potential for strong winds (should one of these storms spin up rapidly as it approaches the region) and heavy rain. These systems will be tapping into the ongoing atmospheric river pattern, so heavy rain may produce some hydrological concerns. Flooding appears to be highly unlikely, but given the long duration of precipitation, we will need to keep an eye on area burn scars and river levels.
Winter impacts do not appear to be an issue at this time, as the general west to southwest flow and period of ridging should keep snow levels well above the passes. -BPN
AVIATION
30/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions continue under high elevation broken or overcast ceilings ahead of an incoming front.
Ceilings should stay at VFR through the night. Fog is not expected in the Umpqua Valley, tonight, but model guidance is in some agreement of fog bringing IFR visibilities into the Rogue Valley Thursday morning.
Precipitation will start to move eastward across northern California and southern Oregon, bringing showers to areas west of the Cascades Thursday morning and snow showers to higher elevation areas and area east of the Cascades near the end of the TAF period. These showers can locally lower visibility and obscure terrain. Given the expectation of widespread and persisting showers, extra caution is advised. -TAD
MARINE
Updated 130 PM Wednesday November 29, 2023...Seas will remain low, near the current readings of 4-5 feet at 11-13 seconds, through tonight. Active weather returns early Thursday morning with multiple fronts expected to pass through the region over the weekend and into next week. Conditions hazardous to small craft will return Thursday morning as winds and seas increase and hazardous conditions will likely persist well into next week.
Seas will continue to build Thursday night and will remain elevated into early next week. By Thursday evening, a steep northwest swell between 11 and 12 feet will build across the waters. When a strong front moves through on Friday, gusty south winds will combine with the existing swell to increase the steepness and chaotic-ness of the seas. This will lead to a period of steep to very steep seas late Thursday night into Friday afternoon. The steepest seas are expected north of Port Orford where the strongest winds are expected. Winds could approach gales at times with this frontal passage.
The northwest swell will rebuild Saturday and grow through Sunday.
Meanwhile, another front will pass through the region bringing another round of wind seas. Seas will peak Sunday afternoon at around 14 to 17 ft, which would make bar crossings increasingly more hazardous. Sea conditions are likely to remain high and steep or very steep early next week. -DW/BR-y.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023>026- 028>031.
Beach Hazards Statement from late Friday night through late Monday night for ORZ021-022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday above 3500 feet for ORZ025.
Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon above 4000 feet for ORZ025-027-028.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday above 4000 feet for ORZ027-028.
Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon for ORZ029-030.
CA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ080-081- 084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for PZZ356.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ356.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 PM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday for PZZ370.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ376.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 308 PM PST Wed Nov 29 2023
SYNOPSIS
A significant Cascade snow event will hit the region Thursday through early Sunday. Travel impacts are anticipated over the multi day event.
SHORT TERM
There is plenty of cloud cover on satellite this afternoon as some moisture moves in ahead of the next wave and frontal system around Thursday afternoon. Current weather impacts remain the air stagnation advisory. The air will generally become less stagnant from now into Thursday, although mixing heights should remain under 1000 feet with some very light boundary layer winds into Thursday morning, so we just kept the air stagnation advisory out as is.
Our concern then turns to winter weather as an upper level wave and cold front moves towards the region around mid day Thursday.
Snow levels start out around 4000 feet before falling to 3000 to 3500 feet Thursday evening once the cold front passes. Snow accumulations with this first wave will be around 4 to 8 inches with the highest totals around Crater Lake and Lake of the Woods.
The Siskiyous and other higher terrain will see some snowfall, although it will be generally around or less than 4 inches.
There should be a brief lull in the snow accumulation around Thursday night as the upper level wave passes through, and there should be some sinking motion in the mid layers of the atmosphere.
Otherwise, moist northwest to west flow and orographic lift will quickly resume by Friday and persist into Saturday under another short wave. Snow levels will start out at 4000 feet Friday morning and gradually rise to 5000 feet by Saturday morning. The snowfall accumulation will be most pronounced over the higher Cascades around Crater Lake given the westerly 40 knot winds at 4500 feet.
Total snowfall is anticipated to reach up to 36 inches around Crater Lake through 12Z Sunday. It is fairly impressive given that we also reduced snow ratios a bit from what the NBM usually puts out. The NBM has a ~65-70% chance of 36 inches for that location.
In any case, impacts will be significant above 5000 feet through this event and one may struggle to travel through Diamond Lake Friday night into Saturday.
Winds are also anticipated to be a concern as all this weather moves through. Winds around 9000 feet above sea level should reach about 50 knots east and over the Cascades around mid day Friday. Looking at some soundings, the atmosphere appears to be well mixed during this time suggesting wind gusts up to 45 mph seems likely. This isn't as big of a concern on Friday since snowfall is on the lighter side during the day. However, the winds appear to strengthen on Saturday with some of the snowfall rates picking up. The biggest concern will be along highway 97, which always seems to see some impacts and a lot of blowing snow with these Cascade snow storms. Winds could expand farther to the east impacting most of Lake County, however the snowfall rates and accumulations drop off significantly over there.
Finally, the leading edge of an atmospheric river has a high probability to hit the region early Sunday based on the latest data. Snow levels will increase up to 6000 or perhaps 7000 feet across the forecast area.
-Smith
LONG TERM
Sunday (12/3) through Wednesday (12/6)...The active pattern will continue into the extended period. There is some wide variation across the model suites regarding the timing and nature of the individual systems (with one landfalling storm system around Sunday and another around Tuesday night or Wednesday), and due to this, the mean solutions and NBM are drawing precipitation chances out over the entire period. However, nearly all solutions have some kind of larger amplitude ridge building in over the area Monday into Tuesday, which implies some kind of break in between the action. Given the timing differences, it is hard to nail down exactly when the rain will occur and when the break will be. An attempt was made to illustrate this better within the official forecast, and although a glance at the forecast products would suggest there is a constant threat of precipitation, we are fairly confident that there will be a roughly 24 hour break in the action early next week. Hopefully the timing details will become clearer over the next several forecast cycles.
The only potential forecast concerns, in terms of impact, will be the potential for strong winds (should one of these storms spin up rapidly as it approaches the region) and heavy rain. These systems will be tapping into the ongoing atmospheric river pattern, so heavy rain may produce some hydrological concerns. Flooding appears to be highly unlikely, but given the long duration of precipitation, we will need to keep an eye on area burn scars and river levels.
Winter impacts do not appear to be an issue at this time, as the general west to southwest flow and period of ridging should keep snow levels well above the passes. -BPN
AVIATION
30/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions continue under high elevation broken or overcast ceilings ahead of an incoming front.
Ceilings should stay at VFR through the night. Fog is not expected in the Umpqua Valley, tonight, but model guidance is in some agreement of fog bringing IFR visibilities into the Rogue Valley Thursday morning.
Precipitation will start to move eastward across northern California and southern Oregon, bringing showers to areas west of the Cascades Thursday morning and snow showers to higher elevation areas and area east of the Cascades near the end of the TAF period. These showers can locally lower visibility and obscure terrain. Given the expectation of widespread and persisting showers, extra caution is advised. -TAD
MARINE
Updated 130 PM Wednesday November 29, 2023...Seas will remain low, near the current readings of 4-5 feet at 11-13 seconds, through tonight. Active weather returns early Thursday morning with multiple fronts expected to pass through the region over the weekend and into next week. Conditions hazardous to small craft will return Thursday morning as winds and seas increase and hazardous conditions will likely persist well into next week.
Seas will continue to build Thursday night and will remain elevated into early next week. By Thursday evening, a steep northwest swell between 11 and 12 feet will build across the waters. When a strong front moves through on Friday, gusty south winds will combine with the existing swell to increase the steepness and chaotic-ness of the seas. This will lead to a period of steep to very steep seas late Thursday night into Friday afternoon. The steepest seas are expected north of Port Orford where the strongest winds are expected. Winds could approach gales at times with this frontal passage.
The northwest swell will rebuild Saturday and grow through Sunday.
Meanwhile, another front will pass through the region bringing another round of wind seas. Seas will peak Sunday afternoon at around 14 to 17 ft, which would make bar crossings increasingly more hazardous. Sea conditions are likely to remain high and steep or very steep early next week. -DW/BR-y.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023>026- 028>031.
Beach Hazards Statement from late Friday night through late Monday night for ORZ021-022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday above 3500 feet for ORZ025.
Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon above 4000 feet for ORZ025-027-028.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday above 4000 feet for ORZ027-028.
Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon for ORZ029-030.
CA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ080-081- 084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for PZZ356.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ356.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 PM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday for PZZ370.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ376.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRBG ROSEBURG RGNL,OR | 13 sm | 28 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 43°F | 37°F | 81% | 30.04 |
Wind History from RBG
(wind in knots)Charleston
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:50 AM PST 6.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM PST 3.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM PST Sunrise
Wed -- 10:11 AM PST Moonset
Wed -- 12:23 PM PST 8.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:43 PM PST Sunset
Wed -- 06:30 PM PST Moonrise
Wed -- 07:40 PM PST -0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:50 AM PST 6.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM PST 3.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM PST Sunrise
Wed -- 10:11 AM PST Moonset
Wed -- 12:23 PM PST 8.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:43 PM PST Sunset
Wed -- 06:30 PM PST Moonrise
Wed -- 07:40 PM PST -0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Charleston, Oregon (2), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 5.5 |
| 1 am |
| 6.4 |
| 2 am |
| 6.6 |
| 3 am |
| 6.2 |
| 4 am |
| 5.3 |
| 5 am |
| 4.4 |
| 6 am |
| 3.8 |
| 7 am |
| 3.7 |
| 8 am |
| 4.2 |
| 9 am |
| 5.3 |
| 10 am |
| 6.6 |
| 11 am |
| 7.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 8.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 8.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 7.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 5.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.8 |
Charleston
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:47 AM PST 6.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:48 AM PST 3.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM PST Sunrise
Wed -- 10:11 AM PST Moonset
Wed -- 12:36 PM PST 8.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:43 PM PST Sunset
Wed -- 06:30 PM PST Moonrise
Wed -- 07:43 PM PST -0.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:47 AM PST 6.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:48 AM PST 3.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM PST Sunrise
Wed -- 10:11 AM PST Moonset
Wed -- 12:36 PM PST 8.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:43 PM PST Sunset
Wed -- 06:30 PM PST Moonrise
Wed -- 07:43 PM PST -0.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Charleston, Oregon, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 5.6 |
| 1 am |
| 6.6 |
| 2 am |
| 6.8 |
| 3 am |
| 6.4 |
| 4 am |
| 5.5 |
| 5 am |
| 4.5 |
| 6 am |
| 3.8 |
| 7 am |
| 3.6 |
| 8 am |
| 4.1 |
| 9 am |
| 5 |
| 10 am |
| 6.3 |
| 11 am |
| 7.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 8.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 8.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 7.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 6.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| -1 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.8 |
Medford, OR,
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