Lyons, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lyons, NY

June 18, 2024 4:38 PM EDT (20:38 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:25 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM
Moonrise 4:48 PM   Moonset 1:45 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 932 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2024

Rest of today - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tonight - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Wednesday - South winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Wednesday night - South winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Thursday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Friday - Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Saturday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 59 degrees.

LOZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lyons, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 181953 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 353 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid weather through at least Thursday with apparent temperatures likely to reach 100F at many locations during the afternoon hours today through Thursday. There will also be showers and thunderstorms at times, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Remnant clouds from convection earlier today will move across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. This will slow rises in temperatures some there, as it did for areas to the west when it moved through. Since showers and storms moved through, temperatures haven risen steadily in Western NY, with highs on track to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s today. Heat index values are still on track to reach into the mid 90s to lower 100s this afternoon, making very dangerously hot and humid conditions. Heat advisories remain in place for the entire forecast area.

The departing wave also impacted convection today, with the slightly slower warming leading to a later onset of instability convection this afternoon. Still impressive CAPE values over 2000 J/Kg early this afternoon, with the most unstable conditions across the Western Southern Tier which was not impacted the convective wave this morning. Radar trends show thunderstorms developing to our south and west, and expanding cumulus fields suggest its only a matter of time before storms develop there mid to late afternoon. Noted the HRRR is too low in its dew points, which is likely causing it to be too slow with is convective initiation. Overall there is low forecast confidence in exact timing and location of storm development.

The 12Z Buffalo sounding showed precipitable water values of 1.77 inches, and any storms that develop today will have the potential to produce torrential downpours. Also, winds aloft are weak, with upstream radar trends showing a potential for backbuilding. As a result there is a marginal risk for flash flooding, mainly across the Western Southern Tier and Upper Genesee Valley even if overall coverage is scattered. The severe weather risk appears limited due to the weak wind profiles and the departure of the convective shortwave. However, the severe weather risk is non- zero since disorganized pulse convection can still produce damaging winds.

Any afternoon and evening convection will diminish overnight tonight, other than perhaps a stray shower or storm. There will be little reprieve from the muggy conditions with low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, with some upper 60s across the Southern tier and North Country.

Wednesday will likely be the hottest day of this heat wave for most areas. 850mb temperatures will continue to hover around +20C, supporting another day with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. In addition, dew points will be slightly higher in the lower 70s at most locations, leading to heat index values to top out in the lower 100s at many locations. The lower Genesee Valley and city of Rochester will be close to heat warning criteria (105).

The region will remain within an upper level ridge, with a weak flow aloft. Instability thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hours, especially along and inland of lake breezes.
PWAT values will remain high, with slow storm motion again presenting a risk for localized flash flooding where storms develop.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
...Heat Advisory in Effect for the Entire Area as Dangerous Heat Builds Through Thursday...

Well above normal temperatures and dangerous heat index values will continue through Thursday. Temperatures & dewpoints drop a few degrees for Friday and into the weekend, but humid conditions overall will linger. With the warm and humid conditions, the potential for showers/thunderstorms will continue through the weekend.

Wednesday night into Thursday, an approaching weak cold front along with a flattening trough to the north will continue the potential for showers and thunderstorms across the region. The loss of daytime heating Wednesday night will help diminish some shower/storm coverage. The potential for scattered showers and storms will continue into the morning on Thursday before becoming better organized along lake breeze boundaries in the afternoon and as a weak cold front drops southeast across the area. There is a 'Marginal Risk' from the SPC for the entire area as plenty of instability will be in place for storms to develop, but shear values will be relatively low. Temperatures remain hot and humid for Thursday ahead of the weak front, highs will return to the upper 80s to mid 90s. Combined with high dewpoint values, index readings into the mid 90s to around 100.

Thursday night and Friday, the frontal boundary stalls over the forecast area and will continue to provide the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms with the best chance for showers toward the NY/PA line. High temperatures on Friday will cool a few degrees down to the mid 80s to low 90s, on the northern side of the frontal boundary. If the front stalls farther north, then temperatures will be a bit warmer.

Friday night, the front stalled over the area will start to slowly push north as a warm front late in the night and into the early morning on Saturday. There should be a break in the shower/storm activity, especially with the lack of diurnal processes.
Showers/storms potential will increase around/after daybreak Saturday morning as the front starts moving north and a ribbon of vorticity and area of increased moisture pushes toward and across the region. As of now, the best chance for showers early Saturday morning looks like it should be over the North Country. Certainly can't rule out a shower or storm for the rest of the area as the warm sector of a sfc low tracking north of the region moves back into the area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The warm sector of a sfc low crossing the Great Lakes will be in place for Saturday and Sunday continuing the potential for showers/storms across the entire area. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Friday, but not as warm as the current mid-week temperatures.

The cold front associated with the sfc low passing to the north will cross the area on Sunday evening and into the night, causing more organized showers/storms to move through the area. A potent shortwave trough tracking across the area behind the passing front will continue the shower potential for Monday.

Increased ridging and an incoming sfc high will result in drier conditions for Monday night through the rest of the period.

Temperatures will be well above normal for the weekend with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures cool behind the passing cold front to the mid 70s to low 80s for Monday before warming again for Tuesday back to the low to upper 80s.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Mainly VFR flight conditions for the 18Z TAF cycle. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, and these may briefly result in heavy rain and IFR or lower conditions at times.
Greatest risk for this is at KJHW. Storms will weaken and decrease in coverage tonight.

Chances for thunderstorms increase again Wednesday afternoon due to daytime instability. Without a large scale trigger for the convection, it should be scattered with best chances in the Western Southern Tier and Upper Genesee Valley.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR, but a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE
High pressure will be near the eastern Great Lakes through much of this week, offering light winds, generally 15 knots or less on the lakes. Locally higher winds and waves are possible in scattered periodic thunderstorms.

CLIMATE
A prolonged period of heat is expected for our region this week.
Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites:

Buffalo

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 18
95/1994............73/2006
June 19
90/2001............73/1919
June 20
92/1995............73/2012


Rochester

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 18
97/1957............72/2018
June 19
95/2001............72/1919
June 20
95/1953............72/1923


Watertown

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 18
91/1957............70/1992
June 19
91/2007............70/1949
June 20
90/1971............71/2012

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871.
Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ001>008-010>014- 019>021-085.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 35 mi39 min0G2.9 76°F 30.18
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 36 mi51 min 74°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 38 mi51 minNE 6G7 80°F 30.1166°F
45215 39 mi73 min 72°F 69°F0 ft
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 44 mi39 minE 3.9G3.9 69°F 63°F30.1666°F


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSDC WILLIAMSONSODUS,NY 13 sm3 minENE 0410 smClear86°F68°F55%30.15
KIUA CANANDAIGUA,NY 20 sm3 mincalm10 smClear93°F70°F47%30.16
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KPEO
   
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Wind History graph: PEO
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Binghamton, NY,




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