Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lyons, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 230956 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 456 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will last through Friday as high pressure anchored along the east coast remains in control of our weather. Low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley today will then track northeast to Michigan by late Friday, before a secondary area of low pressure forms over the Delmarva and tracks northeast along the New England coast over the weekend. This will initially bring rain and mixed precipitation from very late Friday into Saturday, then transition to a mainly wet snow for Saturday night and Sunday as somewhat cooler air works into the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Dry weather and light winds will continue through at least Friday afternoon with just a gradual increase in the mid and upper cloud decks through the period as high pressure remains in control of our weather across all of Western and North Central NY. Deeper moisture will approach from the southwest during the latter half of Friday as an area of low pressure tracks slowly northeast into Michigan. This will bring a chance for some light rain showers to far Western NY by late in the day Friday.

Temperatures will remain solidly above average through the period. Highs today will range from the mid and upper 30s east of Lake Ontario, to the upper 30s to around 40 elsewhere. It will be a touch warmer Friday with highs mainly in the lower to mid 40s, with upper 30s reserved for only the interior higher terrain.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Rain and or a wintry mix gradually switching to lake enhanced snow is one theme of the weekend while the other main theme is limited cold air (surprise, surprise) resulting in snow amounts that will be highly dependent on elevation. Total snow amounts from Friday night through later Sunday night as the event finishes up could exceed 6 inches in the higher terrain areas from the Chautauqua Ridge to the hills in Southern Erie and Wyoming county along with the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau region. However, at the lower elevations, including much of the Buffalo metro and in Rochester, total snow accumulations may struggle to reach just a couple inches as temps remain marginal for accumulating much snow through the weekend.

Starting Friday night, vertically stacked sfc and upper lows will be sliding northeast through the Ohio Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes. Low-level jet and warm air advection in lowest 5kft will bring a swath of mostly rain over much of the area. May see snow mix with the rain where temps are near freezing, over parts of the Southern Tier and in the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. NAM does indicate warm layer would ride over sfc temps below freezing. Suspect the NAM may be too cold with the degree of warm air advection excepted so leaned toward warmer blyr of GFS and Canadian so essentially more of a rain/snow issue instead of freezing rain.

On Saturday, upper low only makes its way to vcnty of Lake Erie while the initial sfc low lifts through the central Great Lakes. Eventually another sfc low takes shape toward the Mid Atlantic States as stronger jet energy slides southeast of the upper low. Daytime on Saturday will be the time of transition across our area as this evolution in sfc lows is occurring. Carried mix of rain and snow, but temps in the mid to upper 30s due to the warm air advection occurring since Friday night and as initial low should still be northwest of here will result in ptype staying rain in the lower elevations.

Eventually as the low along the coast becomes the primary low by late Saturday night, temps aloft settle more toward -6c and soundings indicate blyr cools sufficiently to turn most mixed precip over to snow across all the forecast area. With deeper moisture to H7-H6 in the area (as evidenced by slower trend to depart the upper low) and delta t/s to 8-9c off both Great Lakes, think a period of lake enhancement develops Sat. night and continues into good part of Sunday. Blyr wind direction from the nw will favor higher terrain over western Southern Tier and to east of Lake Ontario for the most snow as with marginal sfc temps this should turn into a upslope terrain enhancement event. However, with the cyclonic side of the upper low in the vcnty and cooling temps, even the lower elevation locations will probably see some snow accumulation late Saturday night into midday Sunday before temps warming into the mid 30s limit additional accums into Sunday afternoon. One of the bigger changes to the forecast was to increase pops Sunday and Sunday night, most notable over the higher terrain areas favored by nw winds.

Later Sunday evening and certainly by Monday, upper low exits toward Maine and Nova Scotia and the lake enhancement shuts down. Once the deeper moisture departs, temps at top of 5kft inversion, remaining only as low as -6c are not sufficient for pure lake effect snow. May be some lingering upslope light snow showers on into Monday with maybe some rain mixing in over the lower elevations as temps reach the lower to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Looks quiet once this system departs on Monday. Even though we are entering into when we should be a climatological min for temps, we will be far from it for this week as strongly positive Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) teleconnection pattern favors strong jet pushing into western North America off the eastern Pacific which keeps coldest air bottled up well to the north, across even northern Canada. Weak little shortwave may bring some isold rain and snow showers or sprinkles/flurries Tuesday, but looks dry otherwise in a non eventful zonal flow. Yet another warmer system in the southern stream lifting along the northeast coast late in the week will bring the next chance of precipitation to the region.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure anchored along the East Coast will maintain fair VFR flight conditons and light winds throughout our region through at least tonight. Only 'weather' to speak of will be just a general increase in mid and upper level cloud decks through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook . Friday . VFR conditions. Saturday . MVFR/IFR conditions possible with rain and wet snow. Saturday night through Monday . MVFR/IFR conditions possible due to snow.

MARINE. Headline free conditions will be found throughout the Lower Great Lakes through at least Friday morning, as high pressure remains in control. Light south winds through midday will then back to the southeast and east winds for later today and tonight.

Easterly flow will freshen (especially across the western half of Lake Ontario) Friday through Saturday ahead of the next storm system. This will bring possible SCA conditions across the western Lake Ontario nearshore zones from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. A return to below SCA conditions can then be expected for the second half of the weekend into early next week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . JM NEAR TERM . JM SHORT TERM . JLA LONG TERM . JLA AVIATION . JM MARINE . JM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	35 mi	18 min	S 6 G 7	29°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	36 mi	48 min		22°F			1025.9 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	38 mi	48 min		25°F			1026.6 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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N13 G18

N12 G16

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N8 G13

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY	28 mi	25 min	SW 5	10.00 mi	Fair	25°F	15°F	66%	1026.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY

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