Tuesday, September29, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Lyons, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 6:51PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 9:47 PM EDT (01:47 UTC) Moonrise 5:26PMMoonset 3:33AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1101 Am Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Occasional showers late this morning, then rain this afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain. A chance of waterspouts overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of waterspouts. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of waterspouts during the day. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 65 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202009292130;;547828 FZUS51 KBUF 291501 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1101 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-292130-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lyons, NY
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location: 43.06, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 300026 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 826 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front exiting the eastern Lake Ontario region will usher in notably cooler fall like weather the rest of the week. These cooler temperatures will also be accompanied by widespread rain through tonight then periods of lake effect rain east and northeast of the lakes Wednesday through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Rain will become fairly widespread across the area tonight as the cold front across eastern New York stalls out, as a deepening surface wave moves north along it. Regional radars showing a large band of showers streaming northward from Tennessee valley just ahead of the deepening mid/upper level trough. Southwesterly low level jet will increase to 40-45 knots ahead of the incoming surface wave transporting abundant moisture northward. The bulk of the incoming rain shield will center from the Genesee valley and Finger Lakes on into North Country, although the western edge could push into far western New York. The narrow band of lake effect rain off Lake Erie has just about eroded away due to diurnal influences. However, nearly all mesoscale guidance suggesting a well defined southwest flow lake effect rain band will set up across northern Erie and Niagara Counties later tonight. Rainfall totals in these areas tonight could exceed 1 inch.

The main synoptic rain shield will exit to the east Wednesday morning, while the lake effect rain band will likely be ongoing northeast of Lake Erie Wednesday morning as 850 mb temperatures will be near +5 C. Localized rain amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are possible northeast of Lake Erie Wednesday.

Behind the exiting rain shield, lake induced rain bands will form east-northeast of Lake Ontario. Strong flow aloft will move across the region Wednesday and breezy conditions are expected with gusts near 40 mph with the strongest gusts will be northeast of the lakes.

A cold front and shortwave trough will approach from the west later in the day Wednesday. This will disrupt the lake bands Wednesday afternoon before another round of rain showers move into the region. Upstream moisture and large scale ascent will provide support for widespread rain showers with lake enhancement east of Lake Erie Wednesday evening.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A cold front will cross the area Thursday, with rain showers moving across western New York and into the North Country by Thursday morning. Lake enhancement will occur northeast of Lake Ontario early Thursday morning. Coverage of rain showers will taper off Thursday as the large scale ascent moves east and moisture diminishes. Breezy conditions are expected again Thursday. While lake induced rain showers continue east of the lakes Thursday, another round of widespread showers are expected Thursday night. Model guidance is showing low pressure developing near Lake Ontario as the front moves overhead. Temperatures at 850mb will fall to near 0 C by Friday morning. The increase in lake induced instability and upstream moisture, coupled with equilibrium levels between 15-20 K will increase the chances for lightning in any lake bands Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Broad upper level troughing will reside over the eastern third of the country Friday night through Saturday, before a potent shortwave passes through the upper level pattern for the later half of the weekend and first part of the work week. Meanwhile down in the lower layers of the atmosphere, high pressure will push in across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast Friday night and Saturday which will promote some drier conditions during this time. However, 0C temperatures at 850mb will promote the continuance lake induced instability and thus lake effect rain showers will be possible during this time.

High pressure will continue to push east into the Northeast Sunday, which will keep the majority of the day dry. The next system associated with the aforementioned potent shortwave aloft will make its way across the Central Plains and into the eastern Great Lakes late Sunday and into Monday. That said, expect chances for rain showers to increase from west to east during Sunday night through Monday. Rain chances will diminish from west to east Tuesday as the surface low pressure system departs the eastern portions of the region.

Temperatures will remain below normal for most of the period before returning to normal by Tuesday.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Deteriorating conditions will be found across the region tonight . as cigs will lower to MVFR levels with rain becoming fairly widespread. IFR cigs are likely across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and across the Finger Lakes region.

The area of synoptic rain will shift east of the area Wednesday morning, leaving mainly lake induced rain bands east of the lakes. MVFR conditions possible within the lake rains with VFR elsewhere. Southwest winds will gusts to 30-35 knots.

Outlook .

Thursday and Friday . MVFR with a chance of showers. Saturday . VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Sunday . Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late.

MARINE. Winds and waves will ramp up very late tonight into Wednesday for most of the area with additional marine headlines likely needed by Wednesday.

Additionally, a much colder air mass will increase instability over the lakes increasing the risk for waterspouts beginning late tonight and continuing for the rest of the week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 5 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ020.



SYNOPSIS . AR/JLA/TMA NEAR TERM . TMA SHORT TERM . HSK/TMA LONG TERM . HSK AVIATION . RSH/TMA MARINE . JLA/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 35 mi47 min S 4.1 G 4.1 60°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 36 mi47 min 58°F 1008.1 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 38 mi47 min SSE 5.1 G 8 56°F 1009.1 hPa55°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 44 mi27 min SSW 9.7 G 16 62°F 66°F1008.5 hPa56°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY28 mi54 minWSW 310.00 miLight Rain55°F53°F93%1009.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8S7S9
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6SW6SW3W53CalmSW4S5S4E7S7S4S7S5SW6SW3
1 day agoSW55SE5SE3CalmS4S3SW5SW4SW5SW7S9S10SW8S12
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2 days agoS5S5S8S4S4S76S76S7S6S7SW8SW8
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S8S4SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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