Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Palmyra, NY
December 4, 2023 2:10 PM EST (19:10 UTC)
Sunrise 7:23AM Sunset 4:37PM Moonrise 11:36PM Moonset 12:43PM
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 931 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers, then a chance of rain and snow showers late. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers during the day, then a chance of light snow Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and light snow during the day, then a chance of rain showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers, then a chance of rain and snow showers late. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers during the day, then a chance of light snow Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and light snow during the day, then a chance of rain showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
LOZ005
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBUF 041812 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 112 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
Cooler weather with bring chances for rain and snow showers across the region today. The mix of rain and snow will transition to snow showers tonight. Light snowfall accumulations possible across the higher terrain today, especially east of Lake Ontario, with some minor accumulations possible east and southeast of the Lakes tonight. High pressure builds across the region Tuesday with just a few lingering light rain or snow showers southeast of the Lakes. A weak Clipper system will then pass by to our southwest later Tuesday into Tuesday night, possibly bringing some light snow to the western Southern Tier.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Surface analysis shows low pressure centered over northern Vermont early this afternoon. Cool, west-northwest flow is across the eastern Great Lakes region with temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s, low to mid 30s on the higher terrain. Rain and snow showers will continue with lake enhancement/effect east of both Lakes. Snow showers are mainly confined to the higher terrain this afternoon.
A shortwave trough is moving across the region this afternoon. Cool, cyclonic flow will continue with weak cold air advection taking place. Temperatures at 850mb are cold enough (-5C Lk Erie and -8C Lk Ontario) for a lake response east of the Lakes. Additional moisture and support from the trough overhead will keep widespread rain and snow showers with lake enhancement through the rest of the afternoon. A wind shift to the northwest will move lake effect activity south this afternoon. Due to marginal boundary layer temperatures, rain is the main precipitation type with a mix or all snow on hill tops across western NY and on the Tug Hill. Snowfall amounts of 1-2 inches are possible with the higher end amounts on the Tug Hill.
The shortwave trough axis will move east of the region tonight.
Moisture will follow while high pressure builds into western NY.
Upslope and lake enhanced rain and snow showers will gradually diminish with snow showers lingering southeast of Lake Ontario by Tuesday morning. Any snow accumulation will be confined to the terrain where 1-2 inches is possible southeast of both Lakes. Low temperatures will fall to the upper 20s to low 30s.
A brief ridge of high pressure will move into the region Tuesday.
Drier conditions are expected with any lingering snow showers confined southeast of Lake Ontario. A cool, west-northwest flow will continue to support low clouds through most of the day. A fast moving clipper system will move from the Mid-West to the Mid- Atlantic region Tuesday. Moisture will increase from the southwest and further increase cloud cover from southwest to northeast across the region by Tuesday afternoon. A period of weak warm air advection aloft may bring a period of rain and snow showers to southwest NY by Tuesday afternoon. The parent upper level trough will move overhead Tuesday night. Cold air advection will strengthen and added moisture will result in a period of lake effect snow showers, mainly south of Lake Ontario and southeast of Lake Erie. Chilly Tuesday night with lows in the 20s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
This will be a rather mundane period of weather across our region...
especially considering that we are in the early throws of December.
A phased...highly amplified pattern will be in place across the country as we open this period. As we push through the week though...the pattern will flatten with a deep trough over our region giving way to a progressive ridge. This will guarantee rather uneventful weather...although some nuisance rounds of pcpn can still be expected.
Looking at the details...a vigorous shortwave dropping south from the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night will pass by just to our west. A swath of moisture associated with this feature will be lifted orographically...especially near the lakes where some lake enhancement will also be in place. This will result in another cloudy night...with nuisance snow showers south and southeast of the lakes. Snowfall amounts will be negligible. The snow 'lollipop' from this event will be in the vcnty of the Chautauqua ridge where amounts should not exceed an inch or two.
In the wake of the exiting shortwave and ahead of a narrow wedge of high pressure...a chilly northerly upslope flow on Wednesday will help to keep a fair amount of cloud cover over the western counties where there may also be some pockets of light snow showers. It will be a cold day with afternoon temps not far from freezing over the western counties...and only in the upper 20s across the North Country.
The axis of the elongated sfc high will cross our forecast area Wednesday night. While most areas should be able to enjoy a night of pcpn free weather...the onset of warm advection could lead to some light snow over over the far western counties. No need to excited about this...as only scant snowfall amounts are forecast.
On Thursday...a broad mid level ridge will ease its way across the Upper Great Lakes...while a tightening H925-70 baroclinic zone associated with a strengthening warm front will be found over the western counties. This will certainly warrant chc pops for a little light snow
focused on the western counties through lunchtime
then over the North country for the bulk of the afternoon. While the ptype will initially light snow...much of this will change to a little rain
Again
problems from this mixed pcpn is NOT expected.
The bulk of the forecast area will be thrust into the warm sector Thursday night...as the progressive mid level ridge will cross the Lower Great Lakes while helping to push the aforementioned warm sector to the North country. Will keep chc pops in play for areas generally from Rochester east...and in particular for the Eastern Lake Ontario region.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
On Friday the surface low will lift to a position just north of Lake Superior...while edging the warm frontal zone a bit further northeast into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Still can't completely rule out a few additional rain and snow showers across the North Country as the warm front tries to slowly exit to the northeast...
while elsewhere drying and building heights/subsidence aloft in the wake of the boundary should result in mainly dry conditions. With a progressively milder airmass continuing to spread across our region...highs on Friday will climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s across the North Country and to 45 to 50 elsewhere.
After that...the broad surface low and its parent northern stream mid-level trough look to push northeastward to the vicinity of Hudson Bay through next weekend...while a southern stream trough crosses the Rockies/southern Plains and induces surface cyclogenesis over the south-central states by Saturday as it impinges upon the cold front trailing southward from the northern stream system. From that point forward...the subsequent evolution of this latter system remains very much in question as the medium range guidance continues to exhibit considerable variance in the extent and timing of any phasing of energy from the northern and southern streams...which in turn will have a direct impact on the strength and track of the surface low.
Possible solutions at this point range from a more strongly phased and deeper system crossing our area during Sunday...to a much weaker/more progressive system (essentially just a wavy frontal boundary) passing through between later Saturday and Saturday night.
With this uncertainty in mind have just indicated a gradual increase in PoPs for the last couple days of this period to likely. As for temps...we can expect these to remain on the rather mild side until this second system passes through our longitude...with temps then starting to pull back at least some afterward (with this happening anytime between later next weekend and early in the following week).
It is worth noting that guidance has subtley shifted the storm track to the west
If this were to verify
as in the case of the ECMWF...
then close attention would have to be given to the potential for a wind event to end the weekend. Lets not get ahead of ourselves though...as the forecast track is far from being conclusive.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Prevailing MVFR flight conditions are expected across western and north central NY through Tuesday morning. Lower ceilings may produce periods of IFR are possible across the higher terrain. Scattered rain and snow showers with embedded lake effect bands will continue across the region this afternoon. Rain will mix with snow across the higher terrain with all snow on the Tug Hill. A mix of rain and snow will move into KJHW this afternoon and lower visibility is possible into this evening.
Rain and snow showers will diminish across the region tonight, however snow showers will likely linger southeast of Lake Ontario into Tuesday morning. Rain and snow showers will mainly stay between TAF sites with the exception of widely scattered snow showers near KJHW Tuesday morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday afternoon...Areas of MVFR in mixed rain/wet snow showers.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A small chance of rain and snow showers.
Saturday...Mainly VFR.
MARINE
Winds over the lower Great Lakes will remain elevated through today, with SCAs remaining in place through this evening into the first half of tonight for the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario nearshore marine zones. Wind gusts will reach 30 knots on both Lakes, with a few gusts to Gale force possible today.
High pressure over central Quebec this evening will then gradually ridge south across the lower Great Lakes later tonight and Tuesday.
This will allow winds and waves to subside to well below SCA thresholds by early Tuesday morning.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ042-043-045.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ044.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 112 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
Cooler weather with bring chances for rain and snow showers across the region today. The mix of rain and snow will transition to snow showers tonight. Light snowfall accumulations possible across the higher terrain today, especially east of Lake Ontario, with some minor accumulations possible east and southeast of the Lakes tonight. High pressure builds across the region Tuesday with just a few lingering light rain or snow showers southeast of the Lakes. A weak Clipper system will then pass by to our southwest later Tuesday into Tuesday night, possibly bringing some light snow to the western Southern Tier.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Surface analysis shows low pressure centered over northern Vermont early this afternoon. Cool, west-northwest flow is across the eastern Great Lakes region with temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s, low to mid 30s on the higher terrain. Rain and snow showers will continue with lake enhancement/effect east of both Lakes. Snow showers are mainly confined to the higher terrain this afternoon.
A shortwave trough is moving across the region this afternoon. Cool, cyclonic flow will continue with weak cold air advection taking place. Temperatures at 850mb are cold enough (-5C Lk Erie and -8C Lk Ontario) for a lake response east of the Lakes. Additional moisture and support from the trough overhead will keep widespread rain and snow showers with lake enhancement through the rest of the afternoon. A wind shift to the northwest will move lake effect activity south this afternoon. Due to marginal boundary layer temperatures, rain is the main precipitation type with a mix or all snow on hill tops across western NY and on the Tug Hill. Snowfall amounts of 1-2 inches are possible with the higher end amounts on the Tug Hill.
The shortwave trough axis will move east of the region tonight.
Moisture will follow while high pressure builds into western NY.
Upslope and lake enhanced rain and snow showers will gradually diminish with snow showers lingering southeast of Lake Ontario by Tuesday morning. Any snow accumulation will be confined to the terrain where 1-2 inches is possible southeast of both Lakes. Low temperatures will fall to the upper 20s to low 30s.
A brief ridge of high pressure will move into the region Tuesday.
Drier conditions are expected with any lingering snow showers confined southeast of Lake Ontario. A cool, west-northwest flow will continue to support low clouds through most of the day. A fast moving clipper system will move from the Mid-West to the Mid- Atlantic region Tuesday. Moisture will increase from the southwest and further increase cloud cover from southwest to northeast across the region by Tuesday afternoon. A period of weak warm air advection aloft may bring a period of rain and snow showers to southwest NY by Tuesday afternoon. The parent upper level trough will move overhead Tuesday night. Cold air advection will strengthen and added moisture will result in a period of lake effect snow showers, mainly south of Lake Ontario and southeast of Lake Erie. Chilly Tuesday night with lows in the 20s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
This will be a rather mundane period of weather across our region...
especially considering that we are in the early throws of December.
A phased...highly amplified pattern will be in place across the country as we open this period. As we push through the week though...the pattern will flatten with a deep trough over our region giving way to a progressive ridge. This will guarantee rather uneventful weather...although some nuisance rounds of pcpn can still be expected.
Looking at the details...a vigorous shortwave dropping south from the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night will pass by just to our west. A swath of moisture associated with this feature will be lifted orographically...especially near the lakes where some lake enhancement will also be in place. This will result in another cloudy night...with nuisance snow showers south and southeast of the lakes. Snowfall amounts will be negligible. The snow 'lollipop' from this event will be in the vcnty of the Chautauqua ridge where amounts should not exceed an inch or two.
In the wake of the exiting shortwave and ahead of a narrow wedge of high pressure...a chilly northerly upslope flow on Wednesday will help to keep a fair amount of cloud cover over the western counties where there may also be some pockets of light snow showers. It will be a cold day with afternoon temps not far from freezing over the western counties...and only in the upper 20s across the North Country.
The axis of the elongated sfc high will cross our forecast area Wednesday night. While most areas should be able to enjoy a night of pcpn free weather...the onset of warm advection could lead to some light snow over over the far western counties. No need to excited about this...as only scant snowfall amounts are forecast.
On Thursday...a broad mid level ridge will ease its way across the Upper Great Lakes...while a tightening H925-70 baroclinic zone associated with a strengthening warm front will be found over the western counties. This will certainly warrant chc pops for a little light snow
focused on the western counties through lunchtime
then over the North country for the bulk of the afternoon. While the ptype will initially light snow...much of this will change to a little rain
Again
problems from this mixed pcpn is NOT expected.
The bulk of the forecast area will be thrust into the warm sector Thursday night...as the progressive mid level ridge will cross the Lower Great Lakes while helping to push the aforementioned warm sector to the North country. Will keep chc pops in play for areas generally from Rochester east...and in particular for the Eastern Lake Ontario region.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
On Friday the surface low will lift to a position just north of Lake Superior...while edging the warm frontal zone a bit further northeast into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Still can't completely rule out a few additional rain and snow showers across the North Country as the warm front tries to slowly exit to the northeast...
while elsewhere drying and building heights/subsidence aloft in the wake of the boundary should result in mainly dry conditions. With a progressively milder airmass continuing to spread across our region...highs on Friday will climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s across the North Country and to 45 to 50 elsewhere.
After that...the broad surface low and its parent northern stream mid-level trough look to push northeastward to the vicinity of Hudson Bay through next weekend...while a southern stream trough crosses the Rockies/southern Plains and induces surface cyclogenesis over the south-central states by Saturday as it impinges upon the cold front trailing southward from the northern stream system. From that point forward...the subsequent evolution of this latter system remains very much in question as the medium range guidance continues to exhibit considerable variance in the extent and timing of any phasing of energy from the northern and southern streams...which in turn will have a direct impact on the strength and track of the surface low.
Possible solutions at this point range from a more strongly phased and deeper system crossing our area during Sunday...to a much weaker/more progressive system (essentially just a wavy frontal boundary) passing through between later Saturday and Saturday night.
With this uncertainty in mind have just indicated a gradual increase in PoPs for the last couple days of this period to likely. As for temps...we can expect these to remain on the rather mild side until this second system passes through our longitude...with temps then starting to pull back at least some afterward (with this happening anytime between later next weekend and early in the following week).
It is worth noting that guidance has subtley shifted the storm track to the west
If this were to verify
as in the case of the ECMWF...
then close attention would have to be given to the potential for a wind event to end the weekend. Lets not get ahead of ourselves though...as the forecast track is far from being conclusive.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Prevailing MVFR flight conditions are expected across western and north central NY through Tuesday morning. Lower ceilings may produce periods of IFR are possible across the higher terrain. Scattered rain and snow showers with embedded lake effect bands will continue across the region this afternoon. Rain will mix with snow across the higher terrain with all snow on the Tug Hill. A mix of rain and snow will move into KJHW this afternoon and lower visibility is possible into this evening.
Rain and snow showers will diminish across the region tonight, however snow showers will likely linger southeast of Lake Ontario into Tuesday morning. Rain and snow showers will mainly stay between TAF sites with the exception of widely scattered snow showers near KJHW Tuesday morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday afternoon...Areas of MVFR in mixed rain/wet snow showers.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A small chance of rain and snow showers.
Saturday...Mainly VFR.
MARINE
Winds over the lower Great Lakes will remain elevated through today, with SCAs remaining in place through this evening into the first half of tonight for the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario nearshore marine zones. Wind gusts will reach 30 knots on both Lakes, with a few gusts to Gale force possible today.
High pressure over central Quebec this evening will then gradually ridge south across the lower Great Lakes later tonight and Tuesday.
This will allow winds and waves to subside to well below SCA thresholds by early Tuesday morning.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ042-043-045.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ044.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 24 mi | 70 min | WNW 13G | 38°F | 29.80 | |||
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 26 mi | 52 min | 38°F | |||||
| 45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY | 40 mi | 40 min | WNW 18G | 36°F | 47°F | 29.77 | 31°F | |
| OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 47 mi | 52 min | W 20G | 38°F | 29.72 | 33°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KIUA CANANDAIGUA,NY | 12 sm | 15 min | WNW 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 39°F | 34°F | 81% | 29.76 | |
| KSDC WILLIAMSONSODUS,NY | 13 sm | 15 min | WNW 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 37°F | 32°F | 81% | 29.78 | |
| KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY | 24 sm | 16 min | NW 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Snow | 37°F | 30°F | 75% | 29.78 |
Wind History from ROC
(wind in knots)
Binghamton, NY,
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