Sunrise 5:34 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 5:37 AM   Moonset 9:17 PM

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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 305 Pm Cdt Wed May 8 2024
Through early evening - East wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Tonight - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. Thursday - Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots backing north in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet late in the afternoon. Thursday night - North wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers through around midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight. Friday - North wind 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then veering south late in the afternoon. Sunny in the morning then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 081534 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1034 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and rumbles of thunder are expected tonight.
Widespread strong to severe storms are not anticipated.

- Small Craft conditions may occur Thursday.

- Periods of showers and a few rumbles of thunder are expected Friday evening through Saturday. Strong storms are not expected at this time.

UPDATE
Issued 1030 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Temperatures are on track for a high in the mid to upper 70s for inland areas. With lake surface water temps roughly 45 to 50 degrees, we should see a well-defined lake breeze boundary develop over the next few hours, holding daytime highs to the upper 60s to near 70 in lakeshore counties. Showers and rumbles of thunder are still expected tonight as low pressure enters IL, but forecast soundings continue to indicate very limited instability. Hence, strong storms are not expected at this time.
Dry air at low levels is expected to hold the rain off until late this evening / tonight.

Sheppard

SHORT TERM
Issued 405 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Today through Thursday:

With recent rains from Tuesday evening thunderstorms, clear skies, light winds, and subsidence, some patchy ground fog is expected before sunrise. A weak disturbance may also bring sprinkles/light rain to far southwest WI around daybreak. Rain from this should erode pretty quickly, however, as it encounters relatively dry low to mid levels.

Any clouds in the area from the disturbance are expected to erode and dry air should keep southern Wisconsin rain-less throughout the day. Temperatures may rise into the upper 70s away from Lake Michigan, while closer to Lake Michigan, a weak trough sinking south down the lake may push a lake breeze inland as soon as mid day, blunting high temperatures and keeping them in the upper 60s to near 70.

Clouds then increase as a small 500mb cutoff low and WAA sparks convection over Iowa late this afternoon and clouds advect over southern Wisconsin. Precipitation will move east but fight a considerable depth of dry air (~10000 ft) as it tries to move into Wisconsin, so we may not see precipitation until after sunset as a sfc low moves over IL and its TROWAL axis moves over our CWA Even with a marginal risk painted over our CWA southwest of Madison, severe weather really isn't expected, as MUCAPE will be elevated at the 700mb level and above and feature a fairly skinny profile, only supporting 250 to 500 J/kg of CAPE. Nevertheless, a few rumbles of thunder may occur.

Precipitation then continues Wednesday night into Thursday as the low pressure moves over the eastern cornbelt, and continues to drag a TROWAL west to east over Wisconsin and lower Michigan. As such, conditions will be cool on Thursday, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. We will then dry out late Thursday afternoon as the TROWAL exits east.

CMiller

LONG TERM
Issued 412 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Thursday night through Tuesday:

We'll dry out Thursday night as high pressure over Minnesota builds into the region. Friday should be fairly nice as a result with shortwave ridging aloft allowing temperatures to rebound into the mid to upper 60s. Clouds will increase late Friday afternoon ahead of a weak shortwave and sfc low that will dive southeast out of Canada toward central WI. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible Friday night into early Saturday morning. The low should exit east by Saturday afternoon, but cold air aloft and daytime heating should lead to scattered, instability-driven showers Saturday afternoon.

High pressure should briefly take hold for Sunday, before a weak sfc trough brings more shower chances (PoPs of 15 to 30%) for Monday.

CMiller

AVIATION
Issued 1030 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions continue today, with some broken clouds currently over Iowa expected to drift northeastward into the region (roughly 15,000 ft altitude). A lake breeze has been added in the most recent TAF amendments, expecting that to develop in the early afternoon hours today and cause winds to shift east at airports in counties bordering Lake Michigan. Scattered showers of light to moderate rain with some rumbles of thunder expected tonight through noon Thursday, decreasing coverage thereafter.
Thunder and rain chances are highest further south towards the Illinois border, closer to the parent low pressure system.
Ceilings should drop to MVFR levels, possibly IFR early Thursday morning as rainfall moistens the lower atmosphere. Ceilings gradually rise in altitude Thursday afternoon.

Sheppard

MARINE
Issued 329 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Low pressure over the northern end of Lake Michigan will exit east toward Lake Ontario through today. Light to moderate northwesterlies over the northern end of the Lake to southwesterlies over the south end of the lake will persist until about mid-day, when a weak trough attached to the low moves from north to south over the lake. Winds behind this trough will come around to northerly and finally northeasterly by the late afternoon to early evening. Northeasterlies will then continue overnight into Thursday as an area of low pressure passes east over the Ohio River Valley. Gusts to 25 knots may occur over the south half of the lake late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon leading to small craft advisory criteria conditions locally.

Winds then ease Thursday night as high pressure approaches the Upper Great Lakes.

CMiller

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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