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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 505 Pm Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am cst Friday through Friday morning...
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight, then becoming south 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Friday..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots veering southwest with gusts to around 25 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of rain through around midnight, then rain after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of rain in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
wave heights are for ice free areas.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 072155 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 355 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

SHORT TERM
(Issued 350 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Tonight and Friday:

Scattered high level clouds and a light southerly breeze are expected tonight, holding overnight lows to the mid 30s to low 40s. The 500mb ridge axis passes overhead tonight and continues east, but southwesterly WAA continues at the surface and boosts tomorrow's daytime high to the mid 50s. Forecast soundings from CAMs suggest that tonight's southwesterly LLJ may supply enough moisture for a broken stratus deck somewhere at or below the 900mb level. Despite the possibility of this extra cloud deck, widespread temps in the mid 50s are still likely tomorrow.

Sheppard

LONG TERM
(Issued 350 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Friday night through Thursday:

As with the previous forecast issuance, the strong low pressure passing through southern Ontario will have a dominant influence over the surface wind field, preventing the secondary low pressure (the center of which crosses our CWA Saturday) from pulling significant CAA into our area (before the precip begins to taper off). Thus, the precipitation we receive Friday night through Saturday morning should fall as rain. Towards the end of the event, cooler / drier air will entrain on some westerly winds, which may allow some snow (with accumulations minimal to none) to mix with the rain for western counties, but the dry slot wrapping around the low is expected to bring an end to the measurable precip shortly thereafter. For the remainder of the weekend a brief light snow shower or flurry wrapping around the back side of the low cannot be ruled out. Dry weather is currently forecast from Monday onwards, with the inner quartile of ensemble high temp forecasts in the 30s. A bowling ball in the 300mb pattern over the rockies is currently indicated by the deterministic models, which may block troughing / cyclogenesis in our area next week.

Sheppard

AVIATION
(Issued 350 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Scattered high level clouds, dry weather, and VFR conditions are expected into tonight. There is some potential for a lower stratus deck (MVFR or low-end VFR level) to develop tonight, but confidence remains too low to include a prevailing BKN deck in TAFs at this time, so this will show as SCT around 2500 ft until confidence increases or decreases. The 2000 ft AGL winds (which carry the moisture for said clouds) are from the southwest, maxing out at 35 to 45 kts from 03z to 10z tonight. If south surface winds grind to a complete halt tonight, there may be a low-level wind shear threat from 03z tonight to around sunrise Friday. Wind shear is currently included in TAFs for the airports we expect it.

Sheppard

MARINE
(Issued 350 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

South to southwest winds with gusts up to 30 kts gradually rebuild tonight into Friday as low pressure of 29.3 inches moves eastward into southern Ontario. Another area of low pressure will develop over Illinois Friday night and move northeastward across Lake Michigan on Saturday. South winds will shift to the west Saturday afternoon and to the northwest on Sunday as the low exits to the northeast. Wind gusts may reach gale force for the southern half of Lake Michigan Saturday morning.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM Friday to noon Friday.

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