Tuesday, July14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brookfield, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:31PM Tuesday July 14, 2020 6:04 PM CDT (23:04 UTC) Moonrise 1:08AMMoonset 2:53PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 506 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 14 2020
Tonight..South wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.
Wednesday..South wind 5 to 10 knots backing east late in the morning, then becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight backing north early in the morning. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..North wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon, then veering east late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny in the morning then clearing. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ644 Expires:202007150400;;853327 FZUS53 KMKX 142206 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-150400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brookfield, WI
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location: 43.06, -88.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 142032 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 332 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

SHORT TERM.

Tonight - Confidence . Medium

Main focus is on convective trends. For tonight the frontal boundary will slowly lean into the area from the northwest. The axis of highest MLCAPE will also translate east although diurnally weaken as it does so. With no discernible wave of note the convection that reaches the northwest cwa before midnight will likely be losing some steam, especially as it gets ahead of the main lower level forcing. So will gradually expand the pops into the area as the northwest cwa as the evening wears on, with smaller chances in the southeast cwa as confidence lowers on whether this action will be able to hold together given the loss of better instability and lack of any wave of note upstairs.

Wednesday and Wednesday night - Confidence . Medium

A negatively tilted shortwave is proggd to ride shortwave will ride ene from srn IL vcnty. The surface/850 front will likely be across srn WI. Expect a better shot at shra/tsra with the better overall column lift. Cloud cover may limit overall instability though moist axis should be in place to support some decent rainfall. As surface/850 low rides northeast and remains largely to our south we may see precip rates enhanced some with def zone coming into play with the mid level riding through. This idea played out somewhat looking at qpf orientation. So while severe threat looks better to our south we could end up dealing with some heavier rain totals especially during the later afternoon and evening hours. Forcing will ease later in the night across eastern WI as the surface low and mid level wave move off to the east.

LONG TERM.

Thursday through Monday Night . Forecast Confidence is moderate

High pressure will build in behind the passing front on Thursday leading to a dry, but still relatively humid day, with a mix of sun and clouds. Dry conditions should continue into Friday as well, as the high pressure lingers. Going into Saturday, heat and humidity will return as a 500mb ridge builds into the area. Slight chances for thunderstorms will be possible toward central Wisconsin during the morning due to a shortwave passing to our north and perhaps toward the lakeshore in the afternoon due to the lake breeze. Saturday will definitely be our hottest day of the weekend, due to WAA in association with southerly winds and the aforementioned ridge.

Sunday and through the end of the period, models hint toward an active pattern as thunderstorm complexes skirt around the heat bubble over the southern US. Temps will stay in the upper 80s to low 90s for us, but extreme heat will tend to be tempered by tstorm activity.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS).

VFR this period with any storms arriving late evening in the northwest cwa and potentially expanding into the southeast mainly after midnight. With surface front potentially getting hung up across the area on Wednesday and a mid level wave riding through, some additional showers/storms are expected especially during the afternoon/evening hours. Localized pockets of MVFR cigs/vsbys possible with any heavier showers. Additional lower cigs, possibly IFR, arriving in a post frontal, cool air advection fashion Wednesday night.

MARINE.

Gusty southerly winds are expected to continue with gusts around 25 knots over the open waters and around 20 knots in the nearshore. Chances for thunderstorms move in for the northern half of the lake tonight and expand over the lake for Wednesday. Winds will be lighter Wednesday and shift to the northwest Wednesday night as the front pushes through.

BEACHES.

Gusty southerly winds will create dangerous swimming conditions for beaches in Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for these counties through 10PM tonight. Life threatening waves and currents are expected.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ052- 060.

LM . None.

Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine . Collar Wednesday Night through Tuesday . CMiller


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 13 mi25 min SE 11 G 12 76°F
45013 14 mi35 min SE 14 G 16 73°F 70°F3 ft1014.7 hPa
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi85 min S 14 G 17 77°F 1015.9 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 36 mi65 min S 12 G 14 76°F 1014.6 hPa (-1.7)
45187 43 mi45 min S 12 G 16 76°F 74°F2 ft

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI5 mi80 minSSE 1210.00 miClear82°F57°F42%1014.9 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI6 mi80 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F60°F54%1015.6 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI13 mi73 minS 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F61°F51%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUES

Wind History from UES (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8E10SE10SE5S4S3S4S3SE4SW3S5S5S3S3S4S5S8S12S8S13
G20
S15S12S5S6
1 day agoE8E5CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W5E10E10E8E8
2 days agoW9W9W4W4CalmCalmW4W3NW3NE9NE8NE7NE6N6NE7N7N6NW7NW11
G20
NW12NW7NE8NE8E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.