Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jordan, NY
February 8, 2025 1:49 PM EST (18:49 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 7:10 AM Sunset 5:30 PM Moonrise 1:06 PM Moonset 4:49 AM |
LOZ044 Expires:202502082215;;499684 Fzus51 Kbuf 081436 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 936 am est Sat feb 8 2025
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-082215- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 936 am est Sat feb 8 2025
Rest of today - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Snow showers likely late this morning, then a chance of snow showers early this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight - East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday - North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Lake effect snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 936 am est Sat feb 8 2025
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-082215- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 936 am est Sat feb 8 2025
the water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
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Area Discussion for Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 081837 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 137 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will bring widespread light to moderate accumulating snow to the area by late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. A few lake effect snow showers will continue Sunday through Monday southeast of the lakes with localized minor additional accumulations.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
All lake snows have ended with a brief quiet period ahead of a fast approaching shortwave that will cut across the central Great Lakes late this afternoon and evening.
With this update have made a few tweaks but overall the forecast remains in good shape. At the surface, low pressure will track from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley across central PA tonight before giving way to secondary cyclogenesis along the coast which then rapidly moves out to sea. A broad area of frontogenesis (tightening thermal gradient) and deformation north of the approaching low will support widespread accumulating snow starting late this afternoon/evening and continue overnight into Sunday. Overall, guidance still suggest Advisory amounts with a range of 2-5" across far western New York. The further you go east and northeast from the Genesee Valley into the North Country, expect 3-7" of accumulation.
As the low passes early Sunday morning, pure synoptic snows will wind down but we could see some limited enhancement in the favored N- NW upslope areas and lake induced snow showers. That said...additional accumulations will be minor with less than 2" in the most persistent snows Sunday afternoon.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Zonal flow across New York State Sunday night through Monday, will give way to a trough sliding east across southern Canada Monday night through Tuesday. This pattern will generally support surface high pressure to slide east from the Northern Plains to the eastern Great Lakes by Monday night and eventually sliding further east Tuesday, making way for a weak cold front to slide east across the area Tuesday night.
In the wake of a shortwave trough passage, and associated surface wave Sunday night, temperatures at 850 will plummet to around -16C resulting in ongoing northwesterly flow lake effect activity Sunday night to reinvigorate into health bands through Monday. This will especially be the case for the lake band off of Lake Ontario. As such several inches of snow may fall Sunday night through Monday, mainly from Rochester to Fulton. While there will be a limited lake response off of Lake Erie, any accumulations will be lighter and generally less than two inches.
Surface high pressure will continue to build east across the lower Great Lakes Monday and Monday night before shifting further east Tuesday. Lake effect southeast of Lake Ontario Monday morning will continue to linger throughout the day and night. As high pressure crosses the area Monday night through Tuesday, dry air will advect into the region along with causing winds to veer to the southwest, resulting in lake effect snow showers to peter out and gradually shift north to the Saint Lawrence Valley by Tuesday afternoon.
Meanwhile to the south of New York State Tuesday, weak surface low will slide east across the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic resulting in the far northern edge of the system to brush the far southern portions of New York state resulting in a few flurries.
A cold front helping to usher the surface high pressure east Tuesday will cross the area from northwest to southeast Tuesday night, supporting a brief period of snow showers.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The mid-level pattern becomes highly amplified across the lower 48 the second half of the work week. A trough will dig across Rockies and Plains while surface low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast.
This system will approach the Northeast while bringing a period of wintry weather Wednesday night through Friday.
A cold front will move through the region Tuesday night which may bring a period of snow showers. Surface high pressure should provide mostly dry, perhaps some lingering light snow showers and cold weather across western and north-central NY Wednesday. Model consensus brings the area of low pressure north along the spine of the Appalachians and moves it off the Mid-Atlantic coast or into New England Wednesday night into Thursday. There are many details to iron out at this time, however pattern recognition and model consensus has the eastern Great Lakes region on the cold side, which could mean a widespread snow event. Changes in the track especially if there is a westward shift may draw some warmer air into the region and result in a wintry mix.
Accumulating lake effect snow showers are possible behind this system Friday through Friday night. Cold weather is likely Wednesday through Friday night with daytime highs below freezing and lows in the teens across western NY and the single digits east of Lake Ontario.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR expected to be in place the rest of the afternoon across all terminals.
Low pressure system over the Ohio Valley by this evening will pass just south of the area tonight. This will bring deteriorating conditions across area terminals with widespread snow developing across the area. The snow will produce widespread LIFR conditions for a 5-8 hour period as it crosses the region, with VSBY possibly approaching 1/2SM at times in moderate bands of snow. The accumulating snow will then diminish to more intermittent light snow from west to east after midnight, with conditions slowly improving after daybreak Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday...snow with IFR to MVFR early, then lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes.
Monday...VFR/MVFR at most terminals, localized IFR in lake effect snow in the southeast corner of Lake Ontario.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR, with a chance of snow showers.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of a snow shower.
Thursdya...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain and snow showers.
MARINE
Low pressure will then pass by to the south of the lower Great Lakes tonight. Northeast winds will increase on Lake Ontario tonight, producing a brief round of Small Craft Advisory conditions along the south shore of the lake. Winds will then become northwest by Sunday morning, with west to northwest winds increasing again on Lake Ontario Sunday afternoon and evening, producing another brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001>003- 010>013-019>021-085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ004>008-014.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 137 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will bring widespread light to moderate accumulating snow to the area by late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. A few lake effect snow showers will continue Sunday through Monday southeast of the lakes with localized minor additional accumulations.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
All lake snows have ended with a brief quiet period ahead of a fast approaching shortwave that will cut across the central Great Lakes late this afternoon and evening.
With this update have made a few tweaks but overall the forecast remains in good shape. At the surface, low pressure will track from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley across central PA tonight before giving way to secondary cyclogenesis along the coast which then rapidly moves out to sea. A broad area of frontogenesis (tightening thermal gradient) and deformation north of the approaching low will support widespread accumulating snow starting late this afternoon/evening and continue overnight into Sunday. Overall, guidance still suggest Advisory amounts with a range of 2-5" across far western New York. The further you go east and northeast from the Genesee Valley into the North Country, expect 3-7" of accumulation.
As the low passes early Sunday morning, pure synoptic snows will wind down but we could see some limited enhancement in the favored N- NW upslope areas and lake induced snow showers. That said...additional accumulations will be minor with less than 2" in the most persistent snows Sunday afternoon.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Zonal flow across New York State Sunday night through Monday, will give way to a trough sliding east across southern Canada Monday night through Tuesday. This pattern will generally support surface high pressure to slide east from the Northern Plains to the eastern Great Lakes by Monday night and eventually sliding further east Tuesday, making way for a weak cold front to slide east across the area Tuesday night.
In the wake of a shortwave trough passage, and associated surface wave Sunday night, temperatures at 850 will plummet to around -16C resulting in ongoing northwesterly flow lake effect activity Sunday night to reinvigorate into health bands through Monday. This will especially be the case for the lake band off of Lake Ontario. As such several inches of snow may fall Sunday night through Monday, mainly from Rochester to Fulton. While there will be a limited lake response off of Lake Erie, any accumulations will be lighter and generally less than two inches.
Surface high pressure will continue to build east across the lower Great Lakes Monday and Monday night before shifting further east Tuesday. Lake effect southeast of Lake Ontario Monday morning will continue to linger throughout the day and night. As high pressure crosses the area Monday night through Tuesday, dry air will advect into the region along with causing winds to veer to the southwest, resulting in lake effect snow showers to peter out and gradually shift north to the Saint Lawrence Valley by Tuesday afternoon.
Meanwhile to the south of New York State Tuesday, weak surface low will slide east across the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic resulting in the far northern edge of the system to brush the far southern portions of New York state resulting in a few flurries.
A cold front helping to usher the surface high pressure east Tuesday will cross the area from northwest to southeast Tuesday night, supporting a brief period of snow showers.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The mid-level pattern becomes highly amplified across the lower 48 the second half of the work week. A trough will dig across Rockies and Plains while surface low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast.
This system will approach the Northeast while bringing a period of wintry weather Wednesday night through Friday.
A cold front will move through the region Tuesday night which may bring a period of snow showers. Surface high pressure should provide mostly dry, perhaps some lingering light snow showers and cold weather across western and north-central NY Wednesday. Model consensus brings the area of low pressure north along the spine of the Appalachians and moves it off the Mid-Atlantic coast or into New England Wednesday night into Thursday. There are many details to iron out at this time, however pattern recognition and model consensus has the eastern Great Lakes region on the cold side, which could mean a widespread snow event. Changes in the track especially if there is a westward shift may draw some warmer air into the region and result in a wintry mix.
Accumulating lake effect snow showers are possible behind this system Friday through Friday night. Cold weather is likely Wednesday through Friday night with daytime highs below freezing and lows in the teens across western NY and the single digits east of Lake Ontario.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR expected to be in place the rest of the afternoon across all terminals.
Low pressure system over the Ohio Valley by this evening will pass just south of the area tonight. This will bring deteriorating conditions across area terminals with widespread snow developing across the area. The snow will produce widespread LIFR conditions for a 5-8 hour period as it crosses the region, with VSBY possibly approaching 1/2SM at times in moderate bands of snow. The accumulating snow will then diminish to more intermittent light snow from west to east after midnight, with conditions slowly improving after daybreak Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday...snow with IFR to MVFR early, then lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes.
Monday...VFR/MVFR at most terminals, localized IFR in lake effect snow in the southeast corner of Lake Ontario.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR, with a chance of snow showers.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of a snow shower.
Thursdya...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain and snow showers.
MARINE
Low pressure will then pass by to the south of the lower Great Lakes tonight. Northeast winds will increase on Lake Ontario tonight, producing a brief round of Small Craft Advisory conditions along the south shore of the lake. Winds will then become northwest by Sunday morning, with west to northwest winds increasing again on Lake Ontario Sunday afternoon and evening, producing another brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001>003- 010>013-019>021-085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ004>008-014.
MARINE...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 27 mi | 49 min | ESE 4.1G | 28°F | 30.15 | 16°F |
Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSYR
Wind History Graph: SYR
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of north east
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