Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Deerfield, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:27PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 1:13 AM CDT (06:13 UTC) Moonrise 9:36AMMoonset 12:15AM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 107 Am Cdt Wed May 27 2020
Rest of tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..South wind 5 to 10 knots backing southeast in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering south in the late evening and overnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then veering southwest late in the afternoon. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ644 Expires:202005270900;;816038 FZUS53 KMKX 270607 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 107 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-270900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deerfield, WI
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location: 43.07, -89     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 270433 AAC AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1133 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

UPDATE.

Quiet weather is expected overnight into early Wednesday morning. Not expecting fog to be much of an issue overnight, with enough middle to high clouds moving through the area. Mild temperatures are expected.

Another round of pulse showers and storms looks to occur for later Wednesday morning into early Wednesday evening. Weak shear and decent mean layer CAPE suggest gusty winds/downburst potential with the strongest storms, similar to earlier today. Highs should be in the lower 80s inland, with a lake breeze limiting highs to the 70s closer to Lake Michigan.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS).

Dry conditions are expected overnight into early Wednesday morning. Light winds are expected overnight into Wednesday morning. May approach low level wind shear criteria overnight at Madison, though think it is borderline so will leave mention out of TAFs.

Another round of scattered showers and storms is expected late Wednesday morning into early Wednesday evening, similar to earlier today. May see gusty winds and brief heavy rain with the stronger storms, along with brief MVFR/IFR visibility and ceilings. VFR conditions are expected otherwise through Wednesday. Lake breeze with southeast winds should develop by early afternoon near the lake, with south winds elsewhere.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 926 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020)

UPDATE .

The showers and storms have nearly dissipated, with the loss of daytime heating. Quiet weather is expected overnight into early Wednesday morning. Not expecting fog to be much of an issue overnight, with enough middle to high clouds moving through the area. Mild temperatures are expected.

Another round of pulse showers and storms looks to occur for later Wednesday morning into early Wednesday evening. Weak shear and decent mean layer CAPE suggest gusty winds/downburst potential with the strongest storms, similar to earlier today. Highs should be in the lower 80s inland, with a lake breeze limiting highs to the 70s closer to Lake Michigan.

MARINE .

Web cameras are showing no fog across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. Some fog may develop later tonight and at times into Thursday, and will be intermittent in nature. So, cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory for the nearshore waters.

Also cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory for the adjacent open waters zones. The Dense Fog Advisory remains for the northern half of the open waters until 1 PM CDT Wednesday. This may need to be extended into Thursday, and perhaps southward, depending on how much fog develops over the cool lake waters.

Otherwise, weak low pressure over west central Iowa will slowly weaken and dissipate into Wednesday. Steady southerly winds, as well as periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms, will continue through Thursday night. The best chances for precipitation will be Thursday into Thursday night, as a cold front moves through the region.

Behind the front, cooler and drier air is expected across the region for Friday into the upcoming weekend, with high pressure moving into the region.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 651 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020)

UPDATE .

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, supported by the southerly low level jet nose and perhaps some weak 500 mb vorticity advection, are moving northward toward Lafayette and Iowa Counties. There has been some wind damage reports with these storms in northwest Illinois over the past hour or so, though radar does not look impressive with vertical structure or velocity data. Given the lack of deep layer shear, these storms should gradually weaken over the next half hour or so, but downburst potential suggests some gusty winds are possible.

Elsewhere, a few showers or storms may pulse early this evening, before things quiet down by middle evening. It should remain dry overnight into early Wednesday morning. Another round of pulse showers and storms looks to occur for later Wednesday morning into early Wednesday evening. Weak shear and decent mean layer CAPE suggest gusty winds/downburst potential with the strongest storms, similar to earlier today.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) .

A few showers or storms may affect the area early this evening, though dry conditions should linger for most of the area tonight into early Wednesday morning. Gusty south to southeast winds should weaken early this evening, with light winds overnight into Wednesday morning. May approach low level wind shear overnight at Madison, though think it is borderline so will leave mention out of TAFs for now.

Another round of scattered showers and storms is expected late Wednesday morning into early Wednesday evening, similar to earlier today. May see gusty winds and brief heavy rain with the stronger storms, along with brief MVFR/IFR visibility and ceilings. VFR conditions are expected otherwise through Wednesday. Lake breeze with southeast winds should develop by early afternoon near the lake, with south winds elsewhere.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 344 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight through Wednesday Night . Forecast Confidence is Moderate .

Short-lived thunderstorms have popped up this afternoon. Many of them have entered their dissipation phase, as shown by outflow boundaries racing away from them on vis sat. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible this afternoon before the setting sun and loss of daytime heating limit further development.

Overnight, cooling temperatures and the abundant LL moisture combined with the cool lake temperatures may make for some dense fog for areas along the lakeshore.

A similar pattern of pop-up thunderstorms appears likely tomorrow, as southerly winds continue to advect gulf moisture northward and nebulous forcing for ascent from the low pressure system to the west of Wisconsin remains present. Storms tomorrow may struggle to organize, as effective shear is forecast to remain at 20 kts or below, and lapse rates will be around a meager 5.5 to 5.7 C/km.

LONG TERM .

Thursday through Thursday Night . Forecast Confidence: Medium.

There is an upper level cut off low that is in central Arkansas and a nearly stalled surface boundary to the west of Wisconsin. As a northern stream trough moves southeast from the Canadian Prairies toward the Midwest, the surface front will begin to move southeast into Wisconsin Thursday. As the surface front approaches southern Wisconsin, there will be increased chance for rain and thunderstorms. Heavy rain looks to be the biggest concern Thursday. The front is slow moving with PWATs approaching 1.75 inches. One to two inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are possible at this time.

Friday through Tuesday . Forecast Confidence: Medium to High.

As the front slowly moves southeast, it will have cleared southern Wisconsin by early Friday morning. An expansive area of high pressure will move into the region behind the front. The weekend will be cool and dry with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s over much of southern Wisconsin for Saturday and Sunday. The high pressure will slowly move eastward through the Midwest over the weekend. Early in the week Monday and Tuesday will be the next chance for rain shower and Thunderstorms, but there is still uncertainty with the timing and track of the incoming shortwave.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS) .

Chances for pop-up thunderstorms will continue for Madison and westward into the early evening before the loss of daytime heating disparages any further development. A few thunderstorms may sneak into lakeshore terminal locations, but the overall chances for lakeshore storms will be lower.

VFR cigs and vis are expected through the evening hours, but where thunderstorms do occur, brief drops to MVFR cigs and vis will be possible. Winds will remain out of the S-SE and light at 5 to 10 kts with occasional gusts to 15 kts through tomorrow.

MARINE .

Dense fog continues to linger along the lakeshore today and may linger through the evening as temperatures cool. Dense fog in the open waters is expected to linger through at least noon tomorrow.

Otherwise, winds and waves will remain light through tomorrow. Winds will be out of the S-SE at 5 to 10 kts with occasional gusts to 15, and waves will generally be confined to 2 feet or less.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for LMZ261-362-364- 366-563-565-567-868.



Update . Wood Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine . CMiller Wednesday Night through Tuesday . Patterson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 59 mi33 min S 2.9 G 4.1 71°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 64 mi33 min E 1.9 G 2.9 62°F 1015.2 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 71 mi73 min S 2.9 G 6 61°F 1014.2 hPa (+0.7)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, WI16 mi18 minS 410.00 miFair72°F66°F84%1013.9 hPa
Madison, Dane County Regional-Truax Field, WI18 mi20 minS 810.00 miFair73°F66°F79%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRYV

Wind History from RYV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6S6E3CalmSE5SE3CalmSE5SE8S8SE9SE8
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1 day agoSE5CalmCalmS3S4SE3SE4S5S9SW11SW9S9SW13
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W3SW4W3NW6W3W4SW3S5S6S8S6SE8S5CalmCalmSE5SE4E4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.