Saturday, August17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Deerfield, WI

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:58PM Saturday August 17, 2019 12:23 PM CDT (17:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:21PMMoonset 7:54AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 1105 Am Cdt Sat Aug 17 2019
Rest of today..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering south late in the evening, then becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight becoming 5 to 15 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering west late in the evening, then easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight veering northwest early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ644 Expires:201908172200;;782463 FZUS53 KMKX 171605 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-172200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deerfield, WI
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location: 43.07, -89     debug

Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 171447
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
947 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019

Update Widespread opaque cirrus will retard temperature rise
this morning. The cirrus should thin a bit in the aftn but with
scattered convection just to the south, may persist in some areas.

For now, remaining optimistic with high temperatures reaching the
upper 70s to low 80s most areas, but may have to lower a few
degrees with early afternoon update. With weak ridging sliding off
to the east, and weak moisture return and passing mid-level trof,
spread low pops for convection slightly quicker into southern wi
late morning and early afternoon. May have to bump up pops to
scattered mention as thinking some of these showers and weak
storms will push across the border into southern wi this aftn.

Best chance for widespread storms remains after midnight tonight
into early Sunday.

Marine Low clouds sticking around this morning across far
northern lake michigan, should eventually thin. Otherwise, expect
west to southwest winds to back more to the south this aftn and
even. Stronger southerly winds are still expected for a time ahead
of an approaching cold front late tonight into Sunday.

Prev discussion (issued 608 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019)

influx of cirrus and development of light winds over the past few
hours has all but eliminated patchy fog across the area.

Visibility has quickly improved, and valley fog ceilings have
lifted due to light mixing.

A few things to keep heading into today and tonight. First, will
need to watch for isolated to widely scattered showers storms this
afternoon close to the wi il state line. Otherwise, quiet weather
is expected into this evening. Second, the 06z guidance continues
to support two distinct convective complexes overnight into Sunday
morning. They also continue to support one complex staying just to
our south and the other clipping northern portions of the outlook
area (lone rock dells fond du lac sheboygan). It is entirely
plausible that some portions of the area may not see any rainfall.

This will be a mesoscale forecast challenge with further fine
tuning required.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

high (cirrus) clouds have spread over the region. This cirrus deck
and light mixing have aided in valley ground fog dissipating over
the past couple of hours. Mid high level moisture will continue to
stream into the region today into this evening. Cannot rule out a
few showers affecting enw (and perhaps mke) this afternoon,
however confidence is not high enough to include in the tafs. Will
be monitoring two main areas of showers storms overnight tonight.

If this activity moves over the area, a period of MVFR vis cig is
reasonable to expect. Otherwise, expectVFR conditions today and
through much of this evening.

Prev discussion... (issued 332 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019)
short term...

today through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium...

unsettled weather pattern this weekend resulting in a little lower
forecast confidence than typical for the short term period.

First opportunity for a few showers will be this afternoon as a
low level boundary over northern il shifts to the north. Weak
convergence may be enough to spark isolated shower activity, but
this will be the exception rather than the rule.

The second opportunity for a more organized brand of
showers storms will be overnight tonight into Sunday morning.

There will be two areas of convection to monitor. One will be over
iowa during the evening as storms congeal into linear clusters.

System motion and forward propagating system motion vectors are
largely west to east. Depending upon how storms initiate in iowa,
this complex of storms may end up staying just south of the area
or clipping far southern wi. This complex of storms would pose a
potential straight line wind risk, but overnight timing is not
ideal as instability decreases quite a bit.

The second area of storms we will need to monitor will be over sd
and mn associated with the mid level shortwave. This has the
potential to move into wi prior to sunrise through Sunday morning.

There are hints from several short range meso models that this
may largely affect northern portions of our area and points north.

Bottom line, there is a distinct possibility portions of our area
miss out on both rounds of storms. Highest pops have been placed
immediately adjacent to the il state line and closer to lone
rock the dells fond du lac sheboygan.

A rather substantial cap moves into the area on Sunday, limiting
rain chances from Sunday afternoon onward. Any activity may end up
being just behind an incoming cold front entering from the
northwest late Sunday afternoon.

Temperature-wise, at just above average temperatures for mid
august are expected. 80s during the daytime, 60s at night.

Long term...

Sunday night through Monday night... Forecast confidence is high.

The frontal boundary that pushes across the area Sunday afternoon
ends up stalling out along the wi il state line. High pressure
over the S SE u.S. And a surface high shifting east out of the
dakotas will provide plenty of convergence along this boundary.

Lingering instability could allow for slight chances of storms
Sunday night but best chances are going to be further south into
northern il. The high over the dakotas shifts into wi by Monday
morning pushing the front even further south allowing for a dry
day Monday and into Monday night. Highs end up in the lower 80s
under mostly sunny skies.

Tuesday through Tuesday night... Forecast confidence is medium.

We'll start Tuesday with the surface high over michigan and winds
becoming more southerly through the day. This will allow for
moisture to build back into the area with dewpoints approaching
the upper 60s to 70 degrees by the afternoon evening. Lapse rates
aloft steepen through the day in response to an approaching
shortwave. Given the increasing dewpoints, warm afternoon temps
and lapse rates, we end up with decent instability (mucape > 2,500
j kg). However, forecast soundings would suggest that a sizable
capping inversion is in place and could limit convective
potential. Previous guidance was suggesting slightly better
forcing could help to clear the cap but latest runs take some of
the better forcing to our west south over northern il. So, overall
confidence that we see the cap break and storms develops is low.

For now will keep precip chances at chance for Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is high.

Cooler and drier conditions will be the story for the middle to
latter half of next week. A strong upper low drops E SE out of
hudson bay into the eastern great lakes proving a good push of dry
and cooler air into the region. Highs in the low to mid 70s are
expected both Wednesday and Thursday. As we head towards next
weekend, winds start to shift back to the south and temps warm
back towards the 80s.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

vfr conditions will be the rule for the next 18 or so hours.

Increasing moisture in the mid high levels will spread cirrus over
the region through the day. Wind fields are rather non-descript
until this afternoon when a predominate southeast direction
emerges. Winds will begin to veer just beyond the end of the taf
cycle, with rain storm chances increasing late this evening into
Sunday morning. This activity will bring the risk for at least
MVFR vis cig.


light winds in the wake of low pressure exiting stage east from
northern lake michigan will remain in place for much of Saturday.

Winds will become predominate out of the south southeast late this
afternoon into tonight, shifting to the southwest on Sunday as a
cold front moves through the region. Winds Sunday will be on the
increase and waves in the open waters are expected to rise to the
3 to 5 foot range. There will be periodic chances for showers and
storms this weekend, with the better chances focusing on overnight
tonight into Sunday morning.

High pressure will briefly build into the area to start the
workweek before another cold front passage on Tuesday.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... mbk
today tonight and aviation marine... Gagan
Sunday through Friday... Stumpf

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 59 mi154 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 74°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 64 mi44 min S 6 G 7 76°F 1013.5 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 71 mi24 min SE 8.9 G 11 75°F 1012.9 hPa (-0.6)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, WI16 mi29 minSSW 310.00 miFair77°F62°F60%1012.9 hPa
Madison, Dane County Regional-Truax Field, WI18 mi31 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F59°F54%1012 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRYV

Wind History from RYV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS11S12
1 day agoNE5NE3E4N3Calm----Calm--CalmSE3S4--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6S3--S7S9
2 days agoNE5NE6E10NE8NE6NE9NE4NE5NE3NE4NW3CalmN3N4N6N3N3CalmCalmN3N4N5N6N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.