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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 105 Am Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
Rest of tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots veering west early in the afternoon, then easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the morning, then subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then veering northeast after midnight rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Friday..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming northeast 10 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Chance of rain and snow showers through the day. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 300421 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1021 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

UPDATE
(Issued 1014 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023)

Temperatures this evening have remained a bit above earlier forecasts by a few degrees, likely due to winds remaining a bit more elevated than expected. Overnight lows may end up a few degrees warmer that previous forecasts if this trend holds overnight.

CMiller

SHORT TERM
(Issued 257 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023)

Tonight through Friday night:

Quiet weather will continue tonight into Thursday with a dry airmass remaining in place. Temperatures will be back near normal values tonight given southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front and increasing temps aloft. The cold front will move through by late afternoon on Thursday. Looks like a window of time ahead of the front to sneak highs to around the 40 degree mark again, if not low to mid 40s toward the lake. Should be enough filtered sunshine through the clouds to help warm things up and melt more of the snow.

Models continue to trend northward with the higher moisture and resultant precip Thursday night into Friday as a strong shortwave moves through. Raised precip chances to go closer to model ensemble probabilities of measurable precip, going as high as 60 to 80 percent near the WI/IL border. Chances decrease towards the north, with a sharp cutoff in precip expected with this system. Winds off the lake may keep temps high enough for mainly rain or a rain/snow mix towards the lake, with a better chance for more snowflakes farther west. Currently expecting little to no snow accumulation Thursday night into Friday, but this may change if this system keeps trending northward, particularly south towards the state border.

Models are in better agreement for widespread light snowfall Friday night as the surface low passes by to the south and a second shortwave moves through. Onshore winds may result in rain mixing in east/southeast once again. Northwest areas may remain dry given current model solutions. Overall, snow accumulations look on the light side per latest model runs.

DDV

LONG TERM
(Issued 257 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023)

Saturday through Wednesday:

The active weather pattern will continue through the weekend with multiple chances for precipitation on the horizon. Starting on Saturday afternoon, the low pressure that will have given us some snow/mixed precipitation earlier in the day will have moved off to the east leaving us with lingering easterly flow.
This flow off the still warm lake will give way to some lake effect showers. At this point, with the lake temperature still being 45-47 degrees, and not an inherently cold air mass aloft, the precipitation will be a rain/snow mix with minimal accumulation if at all expected.

The rest of the CWA will get a brief break in precipitation before the next system arrives Saturday Night into Sunday Morning. Confidence in the exact details of this storm remain low with 2 main solutions still on the table at this time. The first solution shown by the GFS & GEFS have the surface low traversing directly over or just south of our CWA. This would potentially mean a warmer storm system with the majority of the precipitation remaining liquid south of a Platteville to Madison to Milwaukee line and rain/snow mix north of that. The other solution as show by the ECMWF/EPS & CMC/GEPS camp has the surface traversing the Ohio River Valley well to our south. The southerly track would mean that the precipitation we receive would mainly be of the frozen variety. Accumulation for the GFS solution would be a non-factor but we could potentially see snowfall accumulation if the ECMWF/CMC solution verifies but not expecting anything major in this department. Precipitation should end late on Sunday with NW flow taking hold to begin the start of the workweek. Another low pressure system will move through the Midwest/Great Lakes region next Tuesday/Wednesday.
Temperatures look cold enough for mainly snow, but confidence in this low because it's still quite far out.

KP

AVIATION
(Issued 1014 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023)

Winds will remain southwesterly overnight and will grow breezy with gusts to around 20 knots tomorrow after dawn ahead of an approaching cold front. Before gusts get going tomorrow morning, there may be some wind shear from 35 to 40 knots directed out of the WSW, however.

The front should pass during the late afternoon, bringing winds around to northwesterly and wind speeds will ease in the wake of the front by Thursday evening. No precipitation is expected with the front.

Cloud cover will increase during post dawn hours on Thursday and will remain in the VFR category. Following the front Thursday night, ceilings will lower to MVFR, and some snow to a rain-snow mix may impact KJVL and KENW before dawn on Friday.

CMiller

MARINE
(Issued 257 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023)

Breezy westerly winds will continue into this evening between low pressure just west of James Bay in Canada and high pressure over the southern United States. Winds will become southwest ahead of a cold front tonight, veering northerly later Thursday into Thursday night behind the cold front. Gusts to 30 knots are possible ahead of the front Thursday, particularly over the southern half of the lake. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for this period. Breezy east to northeast winds will then develop Friday as low pressure passes by to the south across Illinois and into Indiana. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for this period as well.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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