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FXUS61 KALY 040253 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 953 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Steady precipitation will taper off overnight with wet snow limited to mainly the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.
Our weather will be unsettled early in the week with showers mainly across the higher terrain especially on Monday with the upper low over the Northeast. High pressure will build in with drier weather for Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

UPDATE as of 952 PM EST
Primary low associated with negatively tilted upper trough continues to move northeast along eastern Lake Ontario into northern NY as the secondary low is southeast of Cape Cod. Differential cyclonic vorticity is allowing area of pcpn to build back in over eastern NY and western New England with dry slot moving towards southern NY and mid Hudson Valley. We adjusted PoPs slightly and tweaked snowfall amounts over the southern Adirondack Park and southern Greens of VT. NYS Mesonet cams show snow over Piseco and Chestertown with 0.4" snow accums in the past couple of hours.
We could see 2-5" of snowfall in the Adirondack Park and southern Greens with some of the lower elevations in the Lake George Region/Upper Hudson Valley getting a coating to an inch or so.

The precipitation will taper off south to north as with the passage of the occluded front overnight. Lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s. The winds will swing around to the southwest to west by daybreak at 10-15 mph with some gusts 20-25 mph. Some adjustments to PoPs, Weather and temps with this update.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The region will remain under a longwave trough with multiple short waves moving through with some weak ridging inbetween. Each will bring rain and snow showers to the area mainly across the higher terrain. A colder airmass will be ushered in for Tuesday with the passage of the shortwave and its associated boundary Monday night.
Highs Monday are expected to be in the 40s below 1500 feet and in the 30s across the higher terrain Monday with highs from the upper 20s to lower 40s on Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Generally dry weather is expected for the middle to end of the upcoming week. A few lingering snow showers are possible on Wednesday as an upper-level trough remains in place, but these will be most favored across the higher elevations. Little or no accumulation is expected from this activity. Much of Thursday looks dry as well, but a few snow showers will be possible ahead of an approaching warm front from the west Thursday night into Friday, mainly for areas north and west of Albany. Little or no snow accumulation is anticipated from this feature as well. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will only be in the 20s and 30s with lows mainly in the teens and 20s.

Flow turns south to southwesterly Friday into the weekend and will result in a trend toward milder conditions. Highs will rebound into the 30s and 40s with a few lower 50s possible across the valleys.
Mainly dry weather is expected for much of Friday and Saturday, then a trend toward more unsettled weather will be possible by Sunday as a deep upper-level trough crosses the country and results in a developing storm system across the eastern US. There remains plenty of uncertainty with storm track and timing. Trends currently favor mostly rain, but some snow, especially across the higher elevations, cannot be completely ruled out. Trends will be monitored throughout the week.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Double barrel low pressure system impacting the eastern NY and western New England TAF sites tonight. Conditions remain in the MVFR range at KALB/KPSF/KGFL northward, but lapses to IFR in terms of cigs/vsbys are possible, as the primary low approaches from the eastern Great Lakes Region and secondary wave forms south of Long Island. IFR mist and some reductions to cigs continue at KPOU. A period of widespread lower MVFR and IFR conditions is expected at all the TAF sites to 04Z-07Z/MON, but then some improvement to MVFR is expected between 06Z-12Z from south to north with drier air filtering in and the rain diminishing. Some wet snow may mix in at KGFl after 04Z/MON.

Expect widespread MVFR cigs in the 1.5-3.0 kft AGL range at KALB-KPSF north to KGFL between 09Z-16Z/MON with high MVFR or low VFR cigs in the 2-3.5 kft AGL range lingering through the afternoon. KPOU should rise to VFR after 12Z/MON and continue with cigs BKN035-040 kft AGL. Some VCSH groups were used in the afternoon with the upper low overhead.

LLWS was added at KPSF prior to 04Z/SUN with 2 kft AGL winds 35 KT or so from the east and sfc winds only 10 KT. Elsewhere winds will be calm to variable in direction at 5 KT or less tonight, but shifting to the south to southwest at 5-10 KT 06Z-12Z/MON and becoming southwest to west at 8-12 KT with some gusts around 20 KT at KALB/KPSF for the late morning into the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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