Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mayfield, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1. Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday south of the Capital Region.

2. The threat for widespread impactful weather is low from Thursday through the end of the weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Another shortwave trough will track through the mean, zonal flow tomorrow, bringing additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With today's quasi-stationary boundary still present, just a bit further south, and another surface wave riding along it, there could be some isolated severe thunderstorms, particularly in the Eastern Catskills where a Marginal Risk for severe weather currently exists. The primary threat with these will also be strong to locally damaging wind gusts, but the threat looks much more subdued compared to today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Additional disturbances will force a rinse-and-repeat type pattern through the end of the week with rounds of additional showers and non-severe thunderstorms amid a persistent, warm environment. Temperatures will continue to run above normal until late this weekend into early next week when a fairly potent cold front sweeps through the region and brings us actually to below-normal levels by Monday. That said, the overall probability for impactful weather is low from Thursday through early next week.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 00z Thursday...SHRA/TSRA are now well south of KGFL/KALB and have just moved south of KPSF. There is still a line of SHRA/TSRA with gusty winds that may reach KPOU before weakening, so have mentioned a TEMPO from 01z-03z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will likely prevail until overnight when fog is likely to occur at KGFL and possibly at KPSF given the earlier rain and moist low levels. Will mention IFR/LIFR conditions at KGFL and IFR at KPSF although confidence is lower there.
Additional scattered SHRA are expected to move east across the area Wednesday morning to early afternoon so have included PROB30 at most sites. Winds will be west-southwest around 5-10 kt, becoming variable less than 5 kt overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures(Year Set):

Today April 14: Albany: 89(2023)
Glens Falls: 84(2023)
Poughkeepsie: 91(2023)

Wednesday April 15: Albany: 86(2003)
Glens Falls: 84(2003)
Poughkeepsie: 84(2003)

Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012)
Glens Falls: 89(2002)
Poughkeepsie: 91(2012)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.