NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS61 KALY 082105 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 405 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will bring dry and milder weather across the region through Saturday night. A storm system will begin to impact the region on Sunday with heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
Rain will transition over to wet snow across many areas Sunday night into Monday morning as colder air returns.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Upper-level ridging and surface high pressure will be in place across the region tonight as a frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across the region. Weak warm air advection will be in place tonight which should prevent temperatures from falling as far as last night. Most areas should dip into the upper 20s to mid-30s, though more sheltered areas could dip a bit further.
Some lower level clouds may be on the increase later tonight as well. Some patchy fog may also develop but are currently favoring more low clouds versus fog at this time.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
Winter Storm Watch in effect for northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties from Sunday evening into Monday evening

Flood Watch in effect for much of eastern New York and western New England from Sunday afternoon into Monday evening

Quiet weather will be in place on Saturday as warm air advection continues across the region under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Highs should reach the 40s for most areas which will be between 5 and 10 degrees above average.

A strong upper-level trough and surface cold front will then begin to advance eastward across the CONUS to close out the weekend. Strong low and upper-level forcing combined with isentropic lift and precipitable water values 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal will result in widespread rainfall starting Sunday morning and continuing into the afternoon as temperatures rise into the 40s and 50s. An area of low pressure is expected to develop along the front later Sunday afternoon and evening and push northeastward across the region. Continued strong upper-level forcing and the upper-level trough going negatively tilted will lead to an increase in lift and rain to become moderate to locally heavy across the region by Sunday night. A cold frontal rain band could also develop and a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out within this band. Enough rain could fall to lead to localized flooding, including river flooding, where a Flood Watch has been issued for much of eastern New York and western New England (see Hydro section below for details). There remains some uncertainty on where the heaviest rain will set up. Nonetheless, a widespread 1.50 to 3.00 inches of rainfall will be possible across the region.
Locally higher amounts are possible in favored upslope areas, including the eastern Catskills. Breezy conditions are still expected to develop later Sunday through Sunday night with occasional gusts between 30 and 40 mph, though it is possible the stronger winds aloft (low- level jet winds of 40-60 kt) will not be able to mix down to the surface. If they do, wind gusts may become stronger and a wind advisory may be needed in later outlooks.

As the cold front pushes through Sunday night into Monday morning, rain will begin to change over to wet snow, from west to east as colder air returns, beginning earlier in the higher elevations and later in the valleys. Most areas may pick up some accumulation with the Adirondacks most favored for the higher amounts. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties for the potential for 5 to 10 inches of snow. Wind will shift to the west on Monday and remain gusty with occasional gusts between 30 and 40 mph. A few localized gusts to 45 mph cannot be ruled out. Precipitation will gradually taper off Monday afternoon as the main low pulls farther away, but some wrap around lake-effect and upslope snow showers are expected through at least Monday afternoon. It will be much cooler on Monday with highs only in the 30s to lower 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Long term period begins at 00z Tuesday with the wave of low pressure continuing to deepen as it tracks northeastwards into southeastern Canada. A few lingering snow showers associated with the wrap-around moisture are possible across the ADKs, upper Hudson Valley, and southern Greens early Monday night, with the rest of the region drying out. However, with cold advection over the Great Lakes, some additional lake effect snow is expected for the Mohawk Valley and/or western ADKs, where an additional coating to a couple inches of snow is possible Monday night. Overnight lows drop into the 20s for most valley areas, with some 10s possible in the high terrain.

Lake effect snow showers should subside Tuesday with warming 850 mb temps and winds shifting more to the southwest. Mainly dry conditions expected Tuesday with flat upper ridging and a ridge of high pressure at the surface building into the area. Highs will range from low 30s in the high terrain to low 40s for the valleys. Another upper trough and associated shot of cold air will approach our region Tuesday night or Wednesday. Exact timing is uncertain, but this feature will likely lead to some additional lake effect snow showers for portions of the Mohawk Valley and/or western ADKs, with isolated snow showers also possible across the rest of the region. Lows Tuesday night will be mainly in the 20s, with highs Wednesday similar to those on Tuesday.

Wednesday night through Friday...Generally dry weather expected during this time period, as an area of high pressure builds in from the southwest as upper ridging amplifies over the Ohio Valley. We will see a brief cold shot associated with the upper trough Wednesday night with lows in the 10s to 20s, but should see temperatures moderate for the very end of the week.

AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 18Z Saturday...Low stratus continues to decrease in coverage resulting in VFR conditions at ALB/PSF/POU while MVFR cigs and intermittent MVFR vsbys with mist persist at GFL. The erosion of low clouds will extend farther north in the coming hours, with VFR conditions likely at GFL by 21Z, although few- sct low clouds at 2-4 kft will also remain across the region.
MVFR cigs return this evening by 03Z Sat, except at ALB where sct cigs are more likely to persist overnight. MVFR cigs develop at all terminals by 12Z Sat, with IFR possible at GFL/PSF toward the end of the TAF period.

Winds will generally be light this afternoon through tonight, with south to southeast winds at 3-6 kt at all terminals becoming calm to light and variable at GFL/POU after 00-03Z Sat.
Speeds begin to increase out of the south at all terminals after 12-15Z Sat, while low-level wind shear will be near criteria and may exceed 30 kt out of the south to southwest overnight and Saturday morning across the region.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts
Definite SHSN
RA...SN.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY
A storm system will bring a widespread rainfall to the region Sunday into Sunday night before ending as a period of wet snow by Monday. Total rainfall between 1.50 and 3.00 inches will be possible. Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out across the higher terrain of the Catskills.

The combination of heavy rain and several rivers forecast to reach minor flood stage or higher has led to the issuance of a Flood Watch for much of the region. Urban and small stream flooding will be possible. The latest outlook from the Weather Prediction Center has placed areas south and east of Albany in a slight risk for excessive rainfall with a marginal risk elsewhere.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for NYZ041>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for NYZ032-033.
MA...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for VTZ013>015.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Troy
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:54 AM EST     4.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:48 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:40 PM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:41 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:23 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:46 AM EST     4.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:38 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:32 PM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:41 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:13 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Albany, NY,