Mayfield, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mayfield, NY

June 21, 2024 1:02 PM EDT (17:02 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:16 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM
Moonrise 9:01 PM   Moonset 4:20 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayfield, NY
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Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 211425 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1025 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
Very warm and humid once again today with dangerous heat mainly for the mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield County. After morning sun, scattered areas of rain and thunderstorms develop again this afternoon with some stronger storms capable of producing damaging winds and heavy downpours possible before storms diminish this evening. Summer warmth, humidity, and afternoon showers and storms continue this weekend with increasing confidence for strong to severe weather on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
** Heat Advisory in effect for the mid Hudson Valley and all of Litchfield County, CT through 8 PM today.

As of 1025 am, forecast remains largely on track late this morning with regional radars showing developing shwrs/iso storms over the Tug Hill Plateau and southern Adirondacks. This activity is associated with main frontal boundary that remains draped over the area. Expect shwrs/storms to gradually increase in coverage as temps warm in a moderately unstable airmass with the latest HRRR guidance suggesting more concentrated storm deveklipment across the southern Adirondacks between the 15 and 16 UTC timeframe. Given warm atmospheric conditions, the greatest threat for any storms will be isolated strong wind gusts, and SPC has maintained a marginal risk for much of our forecast area this afternoon.

Previous discussion...Clouds increase in coverage midday into the afternoon thanks to the sfc trough from yesterday lingering near or just south of I-90 and a secondary cold front/wind shift boundary sliding southward from the North Country into the southern Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley. These two boundaries will help focus diurnally driven convection during the peak heating hours once again but with both boundaries rather weak and mid-level lapse weaker compared to yesterday, there is less confidence that updrafts will grow tall enough for storms to become severe. Shear is still rather marginal still only around 20-30kts (slightly stronger north of I-90) despite the Northeast remaining within the conveyor belt of relatively faster zonal flow along the northern periphery of our broad ridge. The high dew points and temperatures warming into upper 80s to low 90s will easily support more than sufficient instability ranging 1-2k J/kg so some strong storms are still possible with cool pools and outflow boundaries helping to initiate additional pulse type convection. CAMs also support this thinking for overall convective evolution. Thus, the Storm Prediction continues to carry a marginal risk for severe weather across much of the eastern NY and western New England with damaging winds the primary hazard. High freezing heights and high PWATs will also support efficient warm rain processes and heavy downpours. Weak steering flow aloft and convection developing along linear boundaries may allow storms to train or repeatedly impact an area which may result in some localized poor drainage flooding as well.

While it will still be quite warm and humid today with much of the region warming well into the mid to upper 80s with low 90s in the mid-Hudson Valley, heat index values only look to meet heat advisory criteria in the mid-Hudson Valley, the southern Taconics and Litchfield County, CT which will remain in the slightly hotter air mass just south of sfc trough. Thus, we maintained the heat advisory here and extended it to cover all of Litchfield County.

Diurnal convection diminishes this evening with cloud coverage likely lingering as our boundaries continue to be overhead.
Clouds should limit overall fog formation except in more fog prone valley areas, especially where it rains during the daytime. Temperatures remain quite warm/muggy with lows only drop into the upper 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
**Heat Advisory for the mid-Hudson Valley was extended through 8PM Sunday.**

Saturday is somewhat of a rinse and repeat type of day with skies partly to mostly cloudy and our lingering boundaries providing a focus for renewed afternoon thunderstorms. However, our boundary should actually lift northward as a warm front providing enough forcing for ascent for renewed afternoon thunderstorms. We placed likely POPs in areas north I-90 throughout the day with areas to the south starting off with chance POPs before trending to likely in the afternoon. With increased cloud coverage, temperatures look to fall slightly lower compared to the previous few days with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s for much of the area except low 90s in the mid-Hudson Valley once again. This is just a slight difference and it will still feel very warm and humid. We extended the heat advisory through Saturday for the mid- Hudson Valley where heat index values still top around 95. Lower heat index values expected elsewhere but again it will still feel plenty warm and humid.

Deep boundary layer shear turns higher by Saturday with 0-6km shear values reaching 25 - 35kts, especially near and north of I-90, as the westerly zonal flow aloft becomes stronger. Thus, some some severe storms again are possible and SPC maintains a marginal risk for much of the area with damaging winds still possible. CAMs show suggest overall storm coverage is less compared to Friday likely due to the slightly weaker instability from cloud coverage; however, the increased shear within the still warm and humid air mass means we will have to monitor potential for severe storms. But, any strong to severe storms should be more isolated than previous days.

As the warm front lifts north of I-90 by late afternoon, clouds should give way to increased sunshine/clearing skies with POPs trending lower south of I-90. However, a region of more organized rain and embedded storms looks to track from west to east across southern Canada through the North Country into northern New England within the fast zonal flow. This could clip the southern Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley, and southern VT Saturday night so maintained likely POPs here. WPC's slight risk in its Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook brushes parts of the southern Adirondacks and while this may be overdone, the general idea that more organized rain and heavy downpours from storms passing through our northern zones is valid and worth mentioning. Elsewhere, we trend POPs to slight chance and chance. Temperatures stay warm and muggy with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Confidence is increasing that Sunday could be our next more widespread severe weather day. The warm sector retreats back into the Northeast with 850hPa isotherms rising back to +18C to +20C in response to a shortwave trough amplifying upstream in the Great Lakes. Temperatures return back to hot and humid levels with highs rising to the low to mid 90s for much of the Hudson Valley up to the Capital District supporting heat index values at or above 95 degrees. We extended our heat advisories for the mid-Hudson Valley through Sunday where confidence is highest for dangerous heat but this may need to be extended in future updates. Will message potential for more widespread dangerous heat returning in valley areas in the hazardous weather outlook for Sunday.

Increasing height falls ahead of the incoming shortwave trough will overspread into the Northeast Sunday afternoon into the evening and in the presence of such a hot and humid air mass, initially discrete thunderstorms should quickly redevelop once any initial cap erodes away. With deep layer shear values becoming more impressive reaching 40-45 kts, the stronger, unidirectional southwesterly flow parallel to the incoming cold front may result in a line of strong to severe thunderstorms.
Exactly when this line of storms tracks through eastern NY and western New England remains a bit uncertain as some guidance indicates it arrives during the peak heating hours while others suggest it is delayed until the evening. Should it arrive during peak heating, thunderstorms have a higher potential to become severe while a delayed arrival reduces the threat. Damaging winds would be the primary hazard but heavy downpours are also certainly possible given PWATs around 2" and warm rain processes still ongoing. We collaborated with SPC and given the uncertainties in timing, it was decided to only introduce a marginal risk in the Day 3 Convective Outlook. Should confidence in an earlier arrival time increase, the outlook may increase categories.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An upper trough will be approaching from the west to begin the long term at 12z Monday, with the cold front responsible for Sunday's potential strong to severe weather nearby or just to the east of our region. There remains some uncertainty with just how quickly the cold front departs to our east. The 00z Euro not withstanding, general trend has been for a slightly quicker frontal passage which would result in the deeper moisture and instability shifting off to our east Monday, thus limiting the threat for any stronger storms.
However, with the upper trough and cold pool moving overhead during the day, we will still have scattered pop-up showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon with diurnal heating. It will be slightly cooler and less humid behind the front with highs in the 70s for the terrain to 80s for the valleys.

Monday night and Tuesday, surface high pressure builds in from the southwest. Diurnally driven showers/storms die off after sunset, and with ridging aloft building overhead Tuesday looks mainly dry as well. Tuesday will be warmer with the core of the cold air aloft off to our east. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s for many valley locations, although the humidity will remain at bay with dew points "only" in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Wednesday through Friday...The surface high slides off to our southeast and a warm front lifts northwards through the region Tuesday night or Wednesday. Therefore, Wednesday looks quite warm with highs climbing back into the low 90s for some of the lower elevation areas south of I-90. Upper troughing and a surface cold front will approach from the west/northwest sometime in the Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon timeframe. Showers and thunderstorms are expected with the cold frontal passage. The timing of the front is highly uncertain this far out in time, but if the timing of the cold front aligns with peak daytime heating then some stronger storms would be possible. We will likely get another shot of cooler air behind the front Thursday afternoon into Friday, although the cool down may be short-lived with the CPC predicting temperatures to average above normal for days 8-14.The next system will impact the region around Wednesday with another round of showers and thunderstorms. In addition, temps will be fairly warm once again with humid conditions. More significant cooling and drying is expected towards Thursday behind this system.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 12z Saturday...GFL and PSF have seen fog/mist and LIFR cigs all night, and fog recently formed at ALB. POU remains VFR early this morning. Expecting fog to burn off within the next couple hours, although given how thick the fog is it may take until 13z to fully mix out especially at GFL. Once fog mixes out, conditions become VFR through early this afternoon with just a few passing mid and high clouds.

This afternoon will feature scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Will include VCSH groups at all TAF sites but only include tempo groups for thunder at POU/PSF where confidence is highest. Tried to focus on the most likely timing for storms with the tempo groups, but will note that thunderstorms can't be ruled out any time from early afternoon through around sunset. Any showers/storms could lead to gusty winds and brief IFR vsby reductions if over one of the terminals. Tonight, showers diminish after sunset, but once again expecting fog/mist to form. Areas that see rain today are the most likely to see fog tonight, and where fog forms IFR or lower vsbys/cigs are expected.

Winds increase to around 5 kt from the northeast at ALB/GFL by mid- morning but remain at 5 kt or less at POU and PSF through today.
Winds become light and variable tonight after sunset.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Scattered SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Definite SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Numerous SHRA
TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ066.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ064-065.
MA...None.
VT...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSCH27 sm2.3 hrsENE 0710 smMostly Cloudy81°F72°F74%30.21
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Tide / Current for Troy, Hudson River, New York
   
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Troy
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Fri -- 04:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:27 AM EDT     5.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:20 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:41 PM EDT     3.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:10 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
0.2
1
am
1.1
2
am
2.6
3
am
3.9
4
am
4.8
5
am
5.4
6
am
5.3
7
am
4.6
8
am
3.5
9
am
2.5
10
am
1.6
11
am
0.7
12
pm
0
1
pm
0.2
2
pm
1.2
3
pm
2.4
4
pm
3.2
5
pm
3.7
6
pm
3.7
7
pm
3.3
8
pm
2.4
9
pm
1.5
10
pm
1
11
pm
0.6


Tide / Current for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Fri -- 04:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:19 AM EDT     5.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:10 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:33 PM EDT     3.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:10 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Albany, New York, Tide feet
12
am
0.3
1
am
1.3
2
am
2.8
3
am
4.1
4
am
4.9
5
am
5.4
6
am
5.2
7
am
4.4
8
am
3.3
9
am
2.4
10
am
1.5
11
am
0.5
12
pm
-0
1
pm
0.3
2
pm
1.4
3
pm
2.5
4
pm
3.3
5
pm
3.7
6
pm
3.7
7
pm
3.1
8
pm
2.2
9
pm
1.5
10
pm
1
11
pm
0.5


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Albany, NY,




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