Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 12:25 PM   Moonset 3:22 AM

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FXUS61 KALY 161951 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 351 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will bring mostly clear and cold conditions tonight. Clouds will increase from the south and west tomorrow ahead of a warm front with showers moving in south of Albany late in the day. The showers will gradually increase in coverage across the region Wednesday night with wet and cool conditions continuing through Thursday, as the unsettled weather continues into the first half of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 350 PM EDT...High pressure will build in over NY and New England tonight with clear/mostly clear skies and diminishing winds prior to midnight. The sfc anticyclone will be building in south and east of James Bay. The dry air, mostly clear conditions and light to calm conditions will promote ideal radiational cooling conditions.

Mid and upper level heights will be rising as the the downstream trough will slowly move east of the Canadian Maritimes. Our low temps are on the colder end of the guidance towards the ECM/NAM MOS. Lows will be in the 20s and lower 30s over the higher terrain and in the sheltered valleys north and west of the Capital Region. Expect mid and upper 30s from the Capital Region south and east. Some readings in the Adirondack Park could get into the mid 20s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Tomorrow...the mid and upper level ridge axis will be over NY and New England in the early afternoon, as the 1020-1025 hPa sfc anticyclone moves southeast of Cape Cod. Low and mid level warm advection will be ongoing across western-central NY. Mid and high clouds will increase from the south and west. The upstream mid and upper level trough will be shearing out over the Great Lakes Region and southern Ontario. The air mass is dry across the forecast area, but the best synoptic forcing and moisture convergence shifts toward the southeast Catskills and the I-84 corridor northeast towards the Helderbergs/western Mohawk Valley in the late afternoon. Our highest PoPs remain south and west of the Capital Region for some light rain showers. The rest of the region remains dry with increasing clouds. Highs will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s with spotty mid 60s near Albany.

Wed night low and mid level heights continue to fall with increasing weak to modest isentropic lift with some vorticity advection with the shearing out wave upstream. Periods of showers will lift slowly northeast across the forecast area.
Lowest PoPs continue across the Lake George Region and southern VT due to low-level dry air and downsloping easterlies. Lows will generally be in the 40s with some upper 30s over the higher terrain north and east of the Capital District.

Numerous to widespread showers will continue on Thursday with cool conditions due to stratiform cooled air and lots of clouds. The boundary weakens and falls apart running into the downstream ridge axis over northern New England. Light to modest amounts of rainfall are possible. Max temps will run close to 10 degrees below normal with upper 40s to lower 50s in the valleys with mainly 40s over the higher terrain. Some of the northern most zones and southern VT mainly receive little to no rainfall. The showers decrease and shrink in coverage Thu night with weak short-wave ridging trying to build in from the Ohio Valley. It will remain cloudy and cool. Typical April weather with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s across eastern NY and western New England.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The extended forecast period begins with an approaching cold front from the eastern Great Lakes Region, Ohio Valley and the St Lawrence River Valley that will increase clouds during the morning with scattered to numerous showers in the afternoon into the early evening. Enough low-level convergence occurs with the front with modest upper level dynamics for light to moderate rainfall amounts.
The consensus for the best synoptic forcing and lift with the front and approaching upper level trough based on the latest medium range guidance and ensembles is in the late afternoon through the night time period. Total rainfall looks to be in the couple of tenths to half inch range. Highs on Friday will be near seasonal normals in the upper 50s to lower 60s in the valleys with upper 40s to mid 50s over the hills and mtns. Lows Friday night with the cold advection with the first boundary will be in the 40s with some upper 30s over the southern Dacks/southern Greens.

The first half of the weekend will be unsettled, as a broad mid and upper level trough will be over eastern Canada and the Northeast.
The cyclonic vorticity advection with the upper level low and secondary cold front will bring additional isolated to scattered showers during the day with perhaps some snow showers over the western Adirondacks at night. 850 hPa temps will run a little below normal and with the brisk west/northwest flow expect max temps to run below normal with 40s over the mtns and 50s over the rest of the forecast area with some near 60F readings near KPOU. A chilly night is expected Sat night in the cold advection regime with lows in the 30s with some 20s over the higher terrain. The second half of the weekend will feature improving and drier conditions. Mixed clouds with sunshine and brisk conditions with below normal temps are anticipated, as a broad sfc anticylone builds in from the Plains and Great Lakes Region. Max temps will run below normal by 5-10 degrees with 40s to 50s across the region.

The mid and upper level flow becomes less amplified and more zonal Sunday night through Monday with moderating temps. Max temps will trend closer to seasonable readings with dry weather persisting.
Temps will be less chilly Monday night, as a warm front approaches from a northern stream disturbance. Clouds increase Tuesday with chances of showers expected in the afternoon. We will also monitor a southern stream coastal disturbance which looks unphased at this time. The NBM temps for the end of the long term look seasonable for late April with mid 50s to lower 60s for highs.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected at all terminals.
Few-sct diurnal fair wx cu st 5-7 kft will dissipate this evening, with clear skies across the region after 00Z Wed. A frontal system will approach from the southwest, bringing increased cloud coverage, initially at POU by 09-12Z Wed, and at ALB/GFL/PSF by 12-15Z Wed.

West-northwest winds at 10-15 kt gusting 15-25 kt will continue into this evening, before diminishing to less than 5 kt from the northwest to northeast after 00-03Z Wed. Winds increase out of the northeast at 5-10 kt after 09-15Z Wed, except at POU where light and variable winds are expected ahead of the approaching front.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Tue -- 03:18 AM EDT     Moonset
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Tue -- 03:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:12 AM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:02 PM EDT     5.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:59 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
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