Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mayfield, NY
May 8, 2024 5:39 PM EDT (21:39 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:39 AM Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 5:40 AM Moonset 9:19 PM |
FXUS61 KALY 081942 AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 342 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
Lingering showers or thunderstorms end this evening and a cold front tracks through the region, with cooler weather expected Thursday through the weekend. Chances for showers increase Thursday afternoon and night through the weekend. It looks like we trend back towards drier and slightly warmer conditions for the beginning of next week before chances for showers increase again by midweek.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
As of 3:40 PM EDT...Potent uper shortwave can be seen on GOES 16 water vapor imagery tracking into upstate NY, and surface analysis shows an associated area of low pressure centered near the southeastern Adirondacks. A pre-frontal trough and associated dew point boundary are currently moving through the region, and have sparked a few showers and thunderstorms especially across the southern Berkshires. A couple of these storms have been severe warned, with SPC mesoanalysis showing 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE here overlapping with over 60 kt of deep-layer shear. These storms should move off to our east into New England within the next hour. The threat for severe weather diminishes behind the dew point boundary, as instability should decrease with much drier low-level air moving into the region.
Current satellite imagery also shows a more suppressed cu field for areas already in this drier air, further increasing confidence that the window for severe weather will not last beyond the next hour or so.
However, winds become gusty, potentially at 30 to 40 mph, for a brief period between now and sunset behind the dew point boundary with deep boundary layer mixing. Daytime highs will be in the 70s for most of the region, with portions of the Mid Hudson Valley topping out around 80.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks this afternoon and early evening as the main upper shortwave tracks into the region, providing forcing for ascent. Any storms here are not expected to be severe, and showers/storms likely taper off within a few hours of sunset this evening.
Tonight, the upper shortwave and associated surface low track from upstate NY off the New England coast. The system's cold front will track through the region tonight, making it to around the I-84 corridor by 12z. Any areas ahead of the cold front could see some patchy fog tonight, especially for any areas that receive a shower/storm this afternoon. North and west of the cold front, advection of drier and cooler air should prevent much fog. Lows will range from the 40s for the high terrain to mid/upper 50s near the I-84 corridor.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Tomorrow starts off relatively cool, especially across the northern portions of our forecast area. It will also be dry to start the day with a ridge of high pressure at the surface beneath confluent flow aloft extending over our region. However, a positively tilted upper trough with several embedded shortwave disturbances rotating around it dips into the Great Lakes region. The surface cold front continues its track southwards, and an area of low pressure tracks eastwards from the Ohio valley along the low-level thermal gradient beneath the left exit region of the upper jet. This will bring increasing shower chances in the afternoon and especially overnight, mainly for areas along and south of I-90. Precipitation does not look as widespread as it did at this time yesterday, especially tomorrow afternoon. If current forecast trends continue, PoPs may have to be trimmed back even more tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the 50s to 60s for highs tomorrow, and drop into the 40s tomorrow night. A few wet snowflakes could mix in across the southern Greens late tomorrow night, but little to no accumulation is expected.
Friday and Friday night...Forecast confidence remains lower than we would like for this timeframe. The upper trough takes on a neutral to even negative tilt, and the surface low tracks to our south off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the same time, an inverted trough will extend back north and west into central NY. We will likely see showers or a period of steady rain for areas near the inverted trough, but exactly how far north and east this feature and the associated precip makes it remains somewhat uncertain at this time. The best chance for rain therefore appears to be from Albany south and west. Here, likely to categorical PoPs were put in the forecast, with chance PoPs further north and east.
Precipitation chances diminish Friday night as the surface low moves off to the east, but will keep slight chance to chance PoPs around with the upper trough axis moving overhead. Friday will be quite cool, with highs the 40s for many high terrain areas with 50s for the lower elevations. Friday night lows will generally be in the 40s, with some upper 30s in the high terrain areas. A couple wet snow flakes could mix in across the highest peaks of the ADKs, southern Greens, and Catskills with any lingering light showers.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Long term period begins at 12z Saturday with another upper shortwave approaching from the west. This shortwave will close off aloft at it moves over our area, which will slow the forward progress of the large-scale trough causing it to remain overhead through most of the weekend. The surface low associated with the upper shortwave weakens as it moves into our area before redeveloping well or our east over the Atlantic. With the surface low and upper trough nearby all weekend, temperatures will likely be on the cool side, mainly in the 50s (terrain) to 60s (valleys). It will be mainly cloudy with chances for showers each day, although we will see scattered showers as opposed to an all-day rain.
We may dry out Sunday night into Monday as upper confluence and a ridge of high pressure briefly build over the region, although an upper shortwave and associated cold front may bring additional chances for showers Monday afternoon into Tuesday for the norther half of our forecast area. The track of this feature is far from set in stone, so at this time till mention chance PoPs north of I-90 and work to refine the timing/location of any precip over the next few days. Forecast confidence decreases for the Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe, as another storm system will be developing upstream and may eventually track into our region towards the end of the long term period. Will mention chance PoPs Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Monday through Wednesday will be warmer, with more sun than over the weekend and a southerly component of the flow helping to advect warmer air into the region.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 18z Thursday...Low level stratus clouds have been stubborn to scour out today, with BKN-OVC cigs finally becoming SCT in the past hour at KALB/KGFL/KPSF. So VFR conditions should generally prevail for the rest of the afternoon. A cold front will move across the region later this afternoon. Widely scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue to develop ahead of the front this afternoon. At this time, radar indicating main area for development has been just north/west of KGFL, so will mention a TEMPO for MVFR conditions there. Activity looks to be more sparse at KALB/KPSF, so will mention VCSH for now and monitor trends for possible additional convection. Any SHRA/TSRA should remain north of KPOU.
The threat for any SHRA/TSRA should end by early this evening, with dry conditions then expected. Within the developing cold advection regime overnight, an increase in low level stratus clouds may occur. Confidence in coverage/heights is low at this time, with mainly MVFR cigs anticipated. Cig heights should increase to VFR levels Thursday morning, but with BKN-OVC cigs still expected.
Winds will become westerly between 18z-19z and increase to around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20-25 kt developing. Winds could also be stronger associated with any TSRA. Winds will become northwest this evening around 6-12 kt, then northerly by early Thursday morning.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 342 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
Lingering showers or thunderstorms end this evening and a cold front tracks through the region, with cooler weather expected Thursday through the weekend. Chances for showers increase Thursday afternoon and night through the weekend. It looks like we trend back towards drier and slightly warmer conditions for the beginning of next week before chances for showers increase again by midweek.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
As of 3:40 PM EDT...Potent uper shortwave can be seen on GOES 16 water vapor imagery tracking into upstate NY, and surface analysis shows an associated area of low pressure centered near the southeastern Adirondacks. A pre-frontal trough and associated dew point boundary are currently moving through the region, and have sparked a few showers and thunderstorms especially across the southern Berkshires. A couple of these storms have been severe warned, with SPC mesoanalysis showing 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE here overlapping with over 60 kt of deep-layer shear. These storms should move off to our east into New England within the next hour. The threat for severe weather diminishes behind the dew point boundary, as instability should decrease with much drier low-level air moving into the region.
Current satellite imagery also shows a more suppressed cu field for areas already in this drier air, further increasing confidence that the window for severe weather will not last beyond the next hour or so.
However, winds become gusty, potentially at 30 to 40 mph, for a brief period between now and sunset behind the dew point boundary with deep boundary layer mixing. Daytime highs will be in the 70s for most of the region, with portions of the Mid Hudson Valley topping out around 80.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks this afternoon and early evening as the main upper shortwave tracks into the region, providing forcing for ascent. Any storms here are not expected to be severe, and showers/storms likely taper off within a few hours of sunset this evening.
Tonight, the upper shortwave and associated surface low track from upstate NY off the New England coast. The system's cold front will track through the region tonight, making it to around the I-84 corridor by 12z. Any areas ahead of the cold front could see some patchy fog tonight, especially for any areas that receive a shower/storm this afternoon. North and west of the cold front, advection of drier and cooler air should prevent much fog. Lows will range from the 40s for the high terrain to mid/upper 50s near the I-84 corridor.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Tomorrow starts off relatively cool, especially across the northern portions of our forecast area. It will also be dry to start the day with a ridge of high pressure at the surface beneath confluent flow aloft extending over our region. However, a positively tilted upper trough with several embedded shortwave disturbances rotating around it dips into the Great Lakes region. The surface cold front continues its track southwards, and an area of low pressure tracks eastwards from the Ohio valley along the low-level thermal gradient beneath the left exit region of the upper jet. This will bring increasing shower chances in the afternoon and especially overnight, mainly for areas along and south of I-90. Precipitation does not look as widespread as it did at this time yesterday, especially tomorrow afternoon. If current forecast trends continue, PoPs may have to be trimmed back even more tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the 50s to 60s for highs tomorrow, and drop into the 40s tomorrow night. A few wet snowflakes could mix in across the southern Greens late tomorrow night, but little to no accumulation is expected.
Friday and Friday night...Forecast confidence remains lower than we would like for this timeframe. The upper trough takes on a neutral to even negative tilt, and the surface low tracks to our south off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the same time, an inverted trough will extend back north and west into central NY. We will likely see showers or a period of steady rain for areas near the inverted trough, but exactly how far north and east this feature and the associated precip makes it remains somewhat uncertain at this time. The best chance for rain therefore appears to be from Albany south and west. Here, likely to categorical PoPs were put in the forecast, with chance PoPs further north and east.
Precipitation chances diminish Friday night as the surface low moves off to the east, but will keep slight chance to chance PoPs around with the upper trough axis moving overhead. Friday will be quite cool, with highs the 40s for many high terrain areas with 50s for the lower elevations. Friday night lows will generally be in the 40s, with some upper 30s in the high terrain areas. A couple wet snow flakes could mix in across the highest peaks of the ADKs, southern Greens, and Catskills with any lingering light showers.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Long term period begins at 12z Saturday with another upper shortwave approaching from the west. This shortwave will close off aloft at it moves over our area, which will slow the forward progress of the large-scale trough causing it to remain overhead through most of the weekend. The surface low associated with the upper shortwave weakens as it moves into our area before redeveloping well or our east over the Atlantic. With the surface low and upper trough nearby all weekend, temperatures will likely be on the cool side, mainly in the 50s (terrain) to 60s (valleys). It will be mainly cloudy with chances for showers each day, although we will see scattered showers as opposed to an all-day rain.
We may dry out Sunday night into Monday as upper confluence and a ridge of high pressure briefly build over the region, although an upper shortwave and associated cold front may bring additional chances for showers Monday afternoon into Tuesday for the norther half of our forecast area. The track of this feature is far from set in stone, so at this time till mention chance PoPs north of I-90 and work to refine the timing/location of any precip over the next few days. Forecast confidence decreases for the Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe, as another storm system will be developing upstream and may eventually track into our region towards the end of the long term period. Will mention chance PoPs Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Monday through Wednesday will be warmer, with more sun than over the weekend and a southerly component of the flow helping to advect warmer air into the region.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 18z Thursday...Low level stratus clouds have been stubborn to scour out today, with BKN-OVC cigs finally becoming SCT in the past hour at KALB/KGFL/KPSF. So VFR conditions should generally prevail for the rest of the afternoon. A cold front will move across the region later this afternoon. Widely scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue to develop ahead of the front this afternoon. At this time, radar indicating main area for development has been just north/west of KGFL, so will mention a TEMPO for MVFR conditions there. Activity looks to be more sparse at KALB/KPSF, so will mention VCSH for now and monitor trends for possible additional convection. Any SHRA/TSRA should remain north of KPOU.
The threat for any SHRA/TSRA should end by early this evening, with dry conditions then expected. Within the developing cold advection regime overnight, an increase in low level stratus clouds may occur. Confidence in coverage/heights is low at this time, with mainly MVFR cigs anticipated. Cig heights should increase to VFR levels Thursday morning, but with BKN-OVC cigs still expected.
Winds will become westerly between 18z-19z and increase to around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20-25 kt developing. Winds could also be stronger associated with any TSRA. Winds will become northwest this evening around 6-12 kt, then northerly by early Thursday morning.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
Troy
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT 6.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:41 PM EDT -0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:21 PM EDT 4.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:14 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT 6.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:41 PM EDT -0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:21 PM EDT 4.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:14 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| -0 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 2.1 |
| 3 am |
| 3.7 |
| 4 am |
| 5 |
| 5 am |
| 5.8 |
| 6 am |
| 6.1 |
| 7 am |
| 5.6 |
| 8 am |
| 4.5 |
| 9 am |
| 3.3 |
| 10 am |
| 2.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
Albany
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT 6.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:31 PM EDT -0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:13 PM EDT 4.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:14 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT 6.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:31 PM EDT -0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:13 PM EDT 4.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:14 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 2.3 |
| 3 am |
| 3.9 |
| 4 am |
| 5.1 |
| 5 am |
| 5.9 |
| 6 am |
| 6.1 |
| 7 am |
| 5.5 |
| 8 am |
| 4.3 |
| 9 am |
| 3.2 |
| 10 am |
| 2.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| -0 |
| 1 pm |
| -0 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Albany, NY,
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