Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Utica, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Clipper system brings mixed precipitation this evening with light snow and ice accumulations.

2) Lake Effect snow showers develop tonight and continue through Thursday. Uncertainity continues on track of low pressure passing to the south Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Warm air advection ahead of a cold front this afternoon allows temperatures to climb near freezing. As a result light snow showers are expected to transition to mixed precipitation with potential for a short window of freezing rain or drizzle. Advisories over central NY and Susquehanna and N. Wayne county remain in effect for most of our eastern portion of the region through early evening. Advisories were expanded in northeast PA to include Pike, S. Wayne, Lackawanna, Luzerne and Wyoming. Higher elevations may hold on to the freezing rain potential the longest especially as temporary cold air damming is possible. Overall there is potential for light snow accumulations ahead of the precip transition with a few tenths of an inch expected. Oneida county will see slightly higher accumulations up to an inch as temperatures remain below freezing. Ice accumulations looks to be light, ranging from a glaze to a few hundreths of an inch. Mainly expecting patchy freezing rain and drizzle as soundings look to dry out this evening while things try to get going.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Northwest flow behind the clipper system will generate some lake effect snow showers late tonight into Thursday over central NY. This will bring additional accumulations downstream of Lake Ontario, shifting to portions of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier if Finger Lake Effect snow showers occur. Overall, a few inches for quite a few locations with amounts over 4 inches total in the advisory area.
Some of the amounts may creep into Cayuga and Cortland counties but a sharper cutoff of the higher totals are expected. Held off on expanding the advisory to include S. Cayuga, due to some uncertainty, but there is potential to issue there as well in the near future. Model solutions continue to differ on the low pressure system moving through Sunday into Monday. The GFS and ECMWF both now agree that this disturbance misses our area, but both have very different tracks. The Canadian keeps the low to our south, but shows precipitation extending into our region. Uncertainty still remains, therefore kept NBM that keeps a chance of showers in the forecast.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The 00Z TAF cycle begins with deteriorating conditions across the region. Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS) is a primary concern early in the period for the Southern Tier and NE PA terminals (KELM, KITH, KBGM, KAVP) as a low level jet moves overhead, with WS020 up to 35 to 40 kts forecast through approximately 06Z.

Precipitation will overspread the area tonight. A wintry mix is expected at KAVP, where a TEMPO group for freezing rain and sleet (-FZRAPL) has been included between 04Z and 08Z. Further north, KSYR and KRME will see periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions in light snow (-SN) and mixed rain/snow showers (-SHRASN).

A cold front will cross the region Wednesday morning, shifting winds to the West/Northwest (270-290 deg) and increasing gusts to 20 to 25 kts by afternoon. This flow will activate lake effect snow showers. Expect conditions to lower to IFR at KSYR, KRME, and KBGM after 14Z to 18Z due to -SHSN and blowing snow/mist. Downsloping should keep KELM and KAVP generally VFR to high end.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday... Some additional IFR/MVFR restrictions possible from snow showers in CNY.

Friday and Saturday... High pressure returns with VFR conditions expected at this time.

Sunday...Restrictions possible with the potential for a system to move into the area.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ039- 040.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for PAZ043- 044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ009-018- 036-037.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ044>046-056-057-062.